tamarack Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Agreed. As depicted by the 12z euro, that would paralyze St. John's. What a whopper at 940mb Gusts over 150 kph on the SE coast up there? Repeat of April 1-2, 2001, only moreso? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Gusts over 150 kph on the SE coast up there? Repeat of April 1-2, 2001, only moreso?If it stalls just east of the Avalon at that pressure, it would be pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 18z GFS, Going to be more amped then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 18z GFS, Going to be more amped then 12zShocker. I know some folks(not you)are already planning the victory parade but I would hold off spiking the football. Lots of uncertainty as it's still 4days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, Hazey said: Shocker. I know some folks(not you)are already planning the victory parade but I would hold off spiking the football. Lots of uncertainty as it's still 4days out. Some of these small changes in canada and out west at H5 make for larger implications when it gets to NE on monday, I remain reserved for another day or two, I learned long ago about spiking balls at the 1 yard line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Lol at an amped stemwinder in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol at an amped stemwinder in this pattern. It's not impossible...I just wouldn't favor it. If the shortwave is strong enough and there's some weakness downstream, then it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 18z GFS brings another for the Northeast on weds, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's not impossible...I just wouldn't favor it. If the shortwave is strong enough and there's some weakness downstream, then it can happen. With the strength and position of that high.. I just don't see it happening. If I'm not mistaken , the GFS likes to weaken these highs and slam warming into stout entrenched cold. Isn't it notorious for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 what's a stemwinder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 19 minutes ago, Hazey said: Shocker. I know some folks(not you)are already planning the victory parade but I would hold off spiking the football. Lots of uncertainty as it's still 4days out. Sorry we cut down your Christmas tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, Whineminster said: what's a stemwinder A nice, wound up, classic Northeast storm We like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I'll settle for a more amped front-end like the 18z gfs shows. The rain will still leave the ground white with some colder air to freeze it up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 regardless of what it all means for x-y-z ...this is a stormy ass run. man but, even if that more amped solution finds a way to successfully squeeze through the physics of an uber compressed field and actually verify, you can gamble big money that no warm air penetrates the cold air over the larger chunk of sne proper. it doesn't work that way... it's either all snow, or...snow to mix to freezing rain ending as a back side lock down. move the high off to a 'nother position and we'll talk, otherwise,... no warm. period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I love defiant tippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: regardless of what it all means for x-y-z ...this is a stormy ass run. man but, even if that more amped solution finds a way to successfully squeeze through the physics of an uber compressed field and actually verify, you can gamble big money that no warm air penetrates the cold air over the larger chunk of sne proper. it doesn't work that way... it's either all snow, or...snow to mix to freezing rain ending as a back side lock down. move the high off to a 'nother position and we'll talk, otherwise,... no warm. period. Yeah we do know the GFS bias with cruising surface lows into dense arctic highs...a bias independent of whether the shortwave becomes more amped or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS rips through an explosive deepening low pressure center with the changeover from rain to snow but the snow is not as extensive as 12z run was. Winds could gust as high as 50 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 snowing to beat the band right now, good squall putting down grains and grapu, gusty winds to boot! looks like Albany keeps upping the ante for the Monday Tuesday Wednesday ordeal...we shall see. If it produces what is currently forcast, i will half half of my total output from last seasons total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 hours ago, Whineminster said: what's a stemwinder 3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: A nice, wound up, classic Northeast storm We like WRT how it is used in the NE forums I tend to define a stemwinder as a wound up cutter plowing a sub-980mb blizzard into Detroit while we have showers and torching winds out of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: WRT how it is used in the NE forums I tend to define a stemwinder as a wound up cutter plowing a sub-980mb blizzard into Detroit while we have showers and torching winds out of the SE. Yeah, I don't consider a stemwinder a Nor easter either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: WRT how it is used in the NE forums I tend to define a stemwinder as a wound up cutter plowing a sub-980mb blizzard into Detroit while we have showers and torching winds out of the SE. No...that's just what it is within the context of this particular regime.....but a stemwinder in general is just a strong, wound up storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: Yeah, I don't consider a stemwinder a Nor easter either It depends on the pattern....in this one, no.....but they can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It depends on the pattern....in this one, no.....but they can be. I think we have labeled them, MECS, HECS and BECS storms though, And this one is none of these either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It depends on the pattern....in this one, no.....but they can be. I guess we just hear the term used more often with cutters but yeah, I see how stemwinder can apply to any wound up, bombing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: I think we have labeled them, MECS, HECS and BECS storms though I think in the New England forum stemwinder has definitely been most associated with big GLC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: I think we have labeled them, MECS, HECS and BECS storms though A stemwinder is just a wound up, intense storm......a stemwinder and that particular vernacular are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 You millennial's don't know what it means to play in nature in the woods and wind a stem... it's just a metaphor for wound up really tight and thus deeply. The reason why the metaphor works is because when you wind a stem really tightly like an apple stem you can see how it's torqued and turn and screwed really really tightly. doesn't matter where it is it's in the low that's wound up really tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Sorry. Did not mean a Nor'easter in that sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Boxing day was a stemwinder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: You millennial's don't know what it means to play in nature in the woods and wind a stem... it's just a metaphor for wound up really tight and thus deeply. The reason why the metaphor works is because when you wind a stem really tightly like an apple stem you can see how it's torqued and turn and screwed really really tightly Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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