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Model Mayhem!

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CTValleySnowMan said:

that would be a nice punch in the gut if the Euro corrects towards the GFS on the Sunday night and Monday deal and then Wednesday is a whiff 

I'm basically counting on Wed being a whiff right now...and will be pleasantly surprised if it comes back.

 

But in your scenario, it shows how this pattern can go wrong despite clearly being some potential. There's no locks.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm basically counting on Wed being a whiff right now...and will be pleasantly surprised if it comes back.

 

But in your scenario, it shows how this pattern can go wrong despite clearly being some potential. There's no locks.

And that was also a cutter on models a few days ago. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Hazey said:


Don't forget another wiff on Saturday and then the grinch toward or on Christmas. That would be a tko

Very very possible!!  Seen things like this many times as have a lot of you...         good potential that goes untapped/arye.  Not good to count the chickens before they hatch.  Lots can go bad here/or just not happen like Wednesday is looking like now.  

 

Let's hope we can come away with the ground at least white in most areas of SNE after these 10 days are over.  ??? 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

through it all i'm nothing short of amazed how the flow has this much gradient. 

more so than i have ever seen quite frankly. 

590 heights over MIA with 490 heights N of lake superior is really pushing what can happen on earth...  that's bizarre.  we're a bastion of hand-wringers of snow and the bigger news story is right there actually.   

and it's not just on the large scale..  look at this 18z, hour 72 gfs.. it's got a 484 type core descending the praries of canada with heights nearing 560 over anchorage just over there..  

really ..there's like 90 to 110 kt winds everywhere! it's just like the whole of the atmosphere is in some frenetic tumultuous din of rage - 

it's really so bunningly extreme that i'm wondering if this gw thing is really pressing on the seasonality of the cooling poles 'that' much...  i know this is anomalous, even though that specific measure doesn't seem to be studied anywhere.  

and furthermore...so long as30 N heights around the hemisphere remain stuck in permanent summer ... at any point should the westerlies come into R-wave sync/phase, it WILL push 75 f at our latitude somewhere .. so far over n/a we're being protect by n streams pressing against it and drawing cold S in spite of it. 

if i had to guess though ...eventually that heights resistance aspect begins to wane ...painfully slowly and perhaps a month from now, these velocities relax enough for more standard looks to recur -

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I'm going to post here my disdain for ensembles inside of 6 days now....I'm not sure when this phenomenon occurred, perhaps slowly over the course of 3-5 years, but they are all now just varying reflections of the OP runs. It's gotten to the point where they are not very useful when they are just copycatting the operational version of their model. There was a time when we'd see enough variation around D4-6 that an operational run that was off it's rocker would be quite different than the ensembles. Now, that seems to be rarer and rarer.

 

/end rant

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm going to post here my disdain for ensembles inside of 6 days now....I'm not sure when this phenomenon occurred, perhaps slowly over the course of 3-5 years, but they are all now just varying reflections of the OP runs. It's gotten to the point where they are not very useful when they are just copycatting the operational version of their model. There was a time when we'd see enough variation around D4-6 that an operational run that was off it's rocker would be quite different than the ensembles. Now, that seems to be rarer and rarer.

 

/end rant

I feel like looking at the clustering, or how the individual members look, may be more of a better way to gauge where the risk lies given what you said...but I agree. I noticed this last year too..but thought  maybe it was me. You'd think you could pass the baton to the short range ensembles inside 81 hrs...but we know how chaotic those things are.  At this point..I just try to see if they are warmer or colder than the op. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

I feel like looking at the clustering, or how the individual members look, may be more of a better way to gauge where the risk lies given what you said...but I agree. I noticed this last year too..but thought  maybe it was me. You'd think you could pass the baton to the short range ensembles inside 81 hrs...but we know how chaotic those things are.  At this point..I just try to see if they are warmer or colder than the op. 

Yeah the clustering is good...but even there it can be annoying. I remember there was all this clustering of deep far west lows on the Jan 2015 blizzard on the EPS...and that implied that there was good reason to think there would be a pretty amped solution. Obviously that was a wrong assessment. Once we got close enough, we started to smell their bullsh** (like when RGEM and company said no to a west solution)....but I wish we didn't have to wait that long.

 

Obviously the Jan 2015 case wont happen all the time...the clustering is probably somewhat skillful. It's still annoying though how much they want to copy the OP run these days. It almost makes me think that every time we hear about the upgrades to the ensembles, they are tuning them so fine that they are becoming too much like the OP version and the little perturbations aren't enough to cause big differences. That's just a hypothesis by me with no real evidence other than the ensembles becoming higher resolution.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the clustering is good...but even there it can be annoying. I remember there was all this clustering of deep far west lows on the Jan 2015 blizzard on the EPS...and that implied that there was good reason to think there would be a pretty amped solution. Obviously that was a wrong assessment. Once we got close enough, we started to smell their bullsh** (like when RGEM and company said no to a west solution)....but I wish we didn't have to wait that long.

 

Obviously the Jan 2015 case wont happen all the time...the clustering is probably somewhat skillful. It's still annoying though how much they want to copy the OP run these days. It almost makes me think that every time we hear about the upgrades to the ensembles, they are tuning them so fine that they are becoming too much like the OP version and the little perturbations aren't enough to cause big differences. That's just a hypothesis by me with no real evidence other than the ensembles becoming higher resolution.

It's a good question.  I mean the euro ensembles are now close to the GFS op resolution. Perhaps we are losing the value of looking at ensemble uncertainty because higher resolution is causing members that have different perturbations to still show similarity with the op runs behavior. Certainly a question that's above my expertise. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the clustering is good...but even there it can be annoying. I remember there was all this clustering of deep far west lows on the Jan 2015 blizzard on the EPS...and that implied that there was good reason to think there would be a pretty amped solution. Obviously that was a wrong assessment. Once we got close enough, we started to smell their bullsh** (like when RGEM and company said no to a west solution)....but I wish we didn't have to wait that long.

 

Obviously the Jan 2015 case wont happen all the time...the clustering is probably somewhat skillful. It's still annoying though how much they want to copy the OP run these days. It almost makes me think that every time we hear about the upgrades to the ensembles, they are tuning them so fine that they are becoming too much like the OP version and the little perturbations aren't enough to cause big differences. That's just a hypothesis by me with no real evidence other than the ensembles becoming higher resolution.

When the RGEM shifted, I disregarded the euro.......the NYC crew didn't want to hear it, but...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When the RGEM shifted, I disregarded the euro.......the NYC crew didn't want to hear it, but...

RGEM had a pretty brilliant winter that season. It kind of vomited on itself a little in the 2/15/15 event but other than that it was really good. Every model though is allowed a mulligan on one event per winter. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM had a pretty brilliant winter that season. It kind of vomited on itself a little in the 2/15/15 event but other than that it was really good. Every model though is allowed a mulligan on one event per winter. 

 Let's hope tonight 0Z NAM  is it Mulligan then   Haha

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Toaster bath.

 Part of me wants that solution to happen.  Just so that a month from now when it's modeling something else  people don't like they throw it out again.  than do it again and again .. experiment how many times a day has to flog peoples heads before they get it.  Haha 

in any case I don't think the euros gonna be that wrong this close in.   If it comes in tonight looking more more like that then we can be both amazed at the Nam lead but also keep that in mind for later in the year

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't get that far yet....looked boring.

I'm still skeptical but there might be just enough room to sneak something in.

But holy sh** at the cold after that. -34C at 850 into N ME by 150-156. That would annihilate some records. 

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