JC-CT Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The Euro, as of yesterday, wanted to bring the mjo into phase 4, which means higher heights in the east. But it was on its own...so we may see it correct itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I literally can't stop laughing. Right after all the doom and gloom posts, the 12z GFS says wtf are you talking about. Man you can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh, good luck ! Did you mean to post the October teleconnections? I had an issue last week of images showing prior links instead of the ones I was trying to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Hazey said: I literally can't stop laughing. Right after all the doom and gloom posts, the 12z GFS says wtf are you talking about. Man you can't make this stuff up. We all know the Euro comes in now with a December 84/15 type run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Hazey said: I literally can't stop laughing. Right after all the doom and gloom posts, the 12z GFS says wtf are you talking about. Man you can't make this stuff up. In fairness, it's like people getting worked up over a bad OP GFS run too even the ensembles aren't that bad in the LR...the good OP run is meaningless right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 6 minutes ago, Hazey said: I literally can't stop laughing. Right after all the doom and gloom posts, the 12z GFS says wtf are you talking about. Man you can't make this stuff up. I have not looked at anything today until 12z, But i saw nothing but win with that OP run, But i take it FWIW at this lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Make winter great again. i approve this message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The Euro, as of yesterday, wanted to bring the mjo into phase 4, which means higher heights in the east. But it was on its own...so we may see it correct itself. There still is a low frequency background signal in the maritime continent. All the items except perhaps these kelvin waves point to your forcing out that way. The breakdown may be from these kelvin waves that break off and enhance the Pacific jet like we will see. But, if that's underestimated..then you may see models trend colder. I admit..I definitely did not see that breakdown coming and that goes to show you how fragile things can be. Hopefully it's not a total breakdown. This also is not my expertise...but just digging around and trying to see what may cause any breakdown. You also have the low near Hawaii that is sending disturbances into the west coast messing things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Ukie has kind of a prolonged overrunning event next week...no cutter. That would probably be pretty good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The ggem is on board for the 21st. Please people keep complaining. It seems to be working...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Back on topic, why do the models seem to be having so much difficulty lately. They all seem to be jumping all over the place. Is this "normal" for years moving in a La Nina direction or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: Back on topic, why do the models seem to be having so much difficulty lately. They all seem to be jumping all over the place. Is this "normal" for years moving in a La Nina direction or something else? Honestly they are way better so far than they ever IMO in 14-15 and 15-16. Both winters the models were just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 9 minutes ago, klw said: Did you mean to post the October teleconnections? I had an issue last week of images showing prior links instead of the ones I was trying to post. no.. heh, not sure where that came from - weird. see if this works: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said: Back on topic, why do the models seem to be having so much difficulty lately. They all seem to be jumping all over the place. Is this "normal" for years moving in a La Nina direction or something else? It is likely a combination of very fast flow and some uncertainty in the tropics. Probably a poor combo for models. I would also add that in my own experience, the models seem to have more volatility in typical Nina patterns...I do not know if this is backed up by empirical evidence though, so take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 14 minutes ago, Hazey said: I literally can't stop laughing. Right after all the doom and gloom posts, the 12z GFS says wtf are you talking about. Man you can't make this stuff up. ha! i said exactly that same thing would happen in the other thread - as soon as i pointed out that teleconnector complexion, that would happen - man am I good or am I good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Rgem, Nam 3k and GFS all drop 1-2" tomorrow night for much of SNE. Especially away from water . Sneaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Look at how complicated the Pacific is. You have the jet extended out, which then breaks and forms a big ridge near AK. And then you have the Hawaii low throwing it's junk into the mix. It's not an easy recipe for models to figure out. Add onto that, the progressive nature of the NAO. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=npac&pkg=uv250&runtime=2016121212&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=428 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 GEFS please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS please. Yeah, they are trending better. Might have an interesting model battle on our hands if Euro ensembles continue to show a lot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, they are trending better. Might have an interesting model battle on our hands if Euro ensembles continue to show a lot worse. Are they congrats DC for Saturday too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 GEFS are very overruning looking with a -PNA. Would be nice for even an eastern Greenland ridge right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 As far as here and now, none of that bears much influence on what the Euro or GFS or GGEM do over the next three weeks. I think the 12z GFS shows that the handling of the Pacific is just attrocious now... It could also just be bad enough that the whole ensemble system of the GEFs is turned on it's head - but less than certain of that... Point being, it seems the EPO/NE Pac arc ...if the flow tends to even a little anticyclone look, immediately the flow tries to press/compress SE down stream over the conus and we get "more favorable" look for the winter enthusiasts. No sooner does it hint at flattening... otherway. Today's result is an example of how just a slight little nudge has a huge impact on sensible weather. The gradient is so sloped/large that there's less tolerance for "mistakes" in any given run/cycle. When all the cards are aligned perfectly, we get more room to toy around with placements and stuff and don't have to shoulder the burden of all or nothing. In this case, the mistake was the high pressure N of us... if we could have kept that in line with that look from four days back, we probably would have had the season's first pan-wide warning deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS are very overruning looking with a -PNA. Would be nice for even an eastern Greenland ridge right now. Are you referring to the Saturday event? Meanwhile, I hope they move all the climate discussion to the appropriate thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: As far as here and now, none of that bears much influence on what the Euro or GFS or GGEM do over the next three weeks. I think the 12z GFS shows that the handling of the Pacific is just attrocious now... It could also just be bad enough that the whole ensemble system of the GEFs is turned on it's head - but less than certain of that... Point being, it seems the EPO/NE Pac arc ...if the flow tends to even a little anticyclone look, immediately the flow tries to press/compress SE down stream over the conus and we get "more favorable" look for the winter enthusiasts. No sooner does it hint at flattening... otherway. Today's result is an example of how just a slight little nudge has a huge impact on sensible weather. The gradient is so sloped/large that there's less tolerance for "mistakes" in any given run/cycle. When all the cards are aligned perfectly, we get more room to toy around with placements and stuff and don't have to shoulder the burden of all or nothing. In this case, the mistake was the high pressure N of us... if we could have kept that in line with that look from four days back, we probably would have had the season's first pan-wide warning deal. Tip, I am a weather enthusiast, I'm trying to understand what you just spoke of(lol)...so are you saying as of this moment , we are on a roller coaster, and storms that may come down the pipe line will have to line up just so to give us or get us into "storm warning" range? , WITH that said......based on your thinking, we in the Northeast, will we see a better snowfall or more frequent storms then last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 25 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Are they congrats DC for Saturday too? When was that anything other than rain after a short snow stint for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Are you referring to the Saturday event? Meanwhile, I hope they move all the climate discussion to the appropriate thread. I mean the extended look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The op Euro has some exceptional cold here Friday morning. 850mb temps of -30C at 6z over Boston. That's remarkable for the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Leon out of his lair to head slap folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: When was that anything other than rain after a short snow stint for DC? Oh I don't know. I didn't look at soundings or anything but in the Mid-Atlantic subforum they were posting maps that showed DC getting like 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: Oh I don't know. I didn't look at soundings or anything but in the Mid-Atlantic subforum they were posting maps that showed DC getting like 4-6". It's entirely latitude dependant. It's trending better for us on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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