CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said: Well, if you're talking just SNE then December climo doesn't really favor 'locked in' winter conditions, it's still often a transition month. I think much of SNE only has like 40-50% chances of a white Christmas depending upon where exactly you are. I have a better chance of a white St Pattys Day, vs Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I have a better chance of a white St Pattys Day, vs Christmas. Probably similar odds for me here, latitude might help a little bit for Christmas but I think I've got at best around a 40% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 ORH is about 2/3rds for a white Christmas. Since 2000 it has been 9 out of 16, so we are behind a bit. We were going to climo (9 of 14) until the past two years. But yeah most of the lower elevations aren't much better than 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 GFS is closest model for the storm on Wednesday, deepens down to 980mb east of CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 I'd like to see that lead shortwave just disappear.Best bet is probably for it to gain separation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 A positive change on the 12z. Being in the southern portion of the subforum, I'm still watching this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Yeah the "it ain't happening James" storm might be getting closer to happening...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Still it is a ways away right now and the NAM doesn't even have it in range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The individual means for the GEFS 00z runs had timing and strength issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 True let's wait for the NAM. Let's wait for the NAM 3mm version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: True let's wait for the NAM. Let's wait for the NAM 3mm version. Yeah with its resolution so extreme, It picks up whale farts over the gulfstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Yeah with its resolution so extreme, It picks up whale farts over the gulfstreamThe whale fart effect is a very real phenomenon. Mathematically proven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Hmm ggem has something too. This might start growing legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 GFS brings 4" to CHH on Wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 19 minutes ago, Hazey said: Hmm ggem has something too. This might start growing legs. I hope the legs get real long too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 We just need a little moisture return to wring out over Cape Cod for some snow. Just a little northeasterly wind and we would be golden, we need the storm stronger further southwest. GFS has been trending that way today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Any info on the 12z EURO for Wednesday through Friday timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Any info on the 12z EURO for Wednesday through Friday timeframe? You may brush but probably won't plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 It shows an OES event with a -20C 850mb temps and that leads to Delta ts near +32C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Euro has 0 Fri Am and 60 next Sunday . Umm no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro has 0 Fri Am and 60 next Sunday . Umm no Well not that it matters but CMC agrees. Guess your money is with the GFS this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Well not that it matters but CMC agrees. Guess your money is with the GFS this time? I just meant I don't see that happening. Scooter had said yesterday this seemed like it could trend colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just meant I don't see that happening. Scooter had said yesterday this seemed like it could trend colder Well guidance has been consistent with a robust front ender but the trend regarding beyond that front ender has gone the other way since scooter and I noted the positive trends at 12Z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Well guidance has been consistent with a robust front ender but the trend regarding beyond that front ender has gone the other way since scooter and I noted the positive trends at 12Z yesterday. Yes. I love how he brings up what I said yesterday. I said things have moves from cutter to weak systems lately...but that doesn't mean this will. Still got time so a front ender is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yes. I love how he brings up what I said yesterday. I said things have moves from cutter to weak systems lately...but that doesn't mean this will. Still got time so a front ender is possible. Why would you change ideas over ideas less than 24 hours ago? Especially when they went somewhat more positively today? The arctic air in front of that one is deeper than this current one. I don't see why that won't shear south like this one does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why would you change ideas over ideas less than 24 hours ago? Especially when they went somewhat more positively today? The arctic air in front of that one is deeper than this current one. I don't see why that won't shear south like this one does I just noted what the models showed. I didn't change anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just noted what the models showed. I didn't change anything. It's a week away-he wants it locked in so he can relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Next week could be a cutter or a good front ender with CAD. We aren't going to know for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: It's a week away-he wants it locked in so he can relax. I don't like weather stress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Every single EPS member has a cutter next weekend . Some as low as 987. I guess nowhere to go but up from that furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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