OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS more amped. LOL. Ridiculous. Almost abandons the first wave, and the end result looks like the Euro from like 36 hours ago. Really strong isentropic lift though New England with this GFS run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Ruh roh. What will Kevin say....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Nice little thumper though. Probably snow to ice inland verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ruh roh. What will Kevin say....? That it looks awesome for snow and ice and locking in cold with 2ndary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Ridiculous. Almost abandons the first wave, and the end result looks like the Euro from like 36 hours ago. Really strong isentropic lift though New England with this GFS run though. That's a pretty nice hammering for the pike region 96-102...I like the high position. I know for some it is taboo...but I wouldn't be that opposed to thumping and then sleeting/ZRing a bit into the pack. After two miserable Decembers in a row, I really want a white Christmas this year and a fortified snow pack is the best way to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 994mb up DETs rumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Secondary south it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Then over BOS or so. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Deep layer RH and lift all Sunday night despite QPFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Secondary south it seems. Yeah that is a classic synoptic look to have a secondary sfc reflection track over CC/Islands/SE MA. Anyways, we'll see how other guidance trends. The one constant in the guidance trends over the past 24 hours has been a more favorable high position...they have all kind of been screwing around with exactly how to handle the shortwave ejecting out of the plains and OH Valley, but we've seen the CAD tendency trend stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 That ULL in Canada has trended westward over the last 24h on the GFS. Allows heights to build ahead of it. The H has also retreated a bit more and is not in as good a position as it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that is a classic synoptic look to have a secondary sfc reflection track over CC/Islands. Anyways, we'll see how other guidance trends. The one constant in the guidance trends over the past 24 hours has been a more favorable high position...they have all kind of been screwing around with exactly how to handle the shortwave ejecting out of the plains and OH Valley, but we've seen the CAD tendency trend stronger. Yeah that high improves position an swung NW thanks the mid and upper levels there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that high improves position an swung NW thanks the mid and upper levels there. Looks further NE to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That ULL in Canada has trended westward over the last 24h on the GFS. Allows heights to build ahead of it. The H has also retreated a bit more and is not in as good a position as it was yesterday. Lol . High is even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Deep layer RH and lift all Sunday night despite QPFs. Yeah, GFS keeps lift going from the washout of wave one through the end of wave two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks further NE to me? It builds NW a bit thanks to the jet structure after being more ENE. Anyways, having a high in that position may still mean change to rain here, but I'd rather a 36F rain for a brief time vs 50 and wiping everything away. Just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, GFS keeps lift going from the washout of wave one through the end of wave two. Maybe 36-48 hours of snow/ice if that's right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 The stronger primary eventually bullies the high to the NE a bit...but before that happens, the high is actually stronger than 06z. That's what you want...the nuances in the ejecting shortwave after that will change things later in the game, but a good stout high at the onset is going to increase your front end thump potential with good frontogenesis with all that isentropic glide from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The stronger primary eventually bullies the high to the NE a bit...but before that happens, the high is actually stronger than 06z. That's what you want...the nuances in the ejecting shortwave after that will change things later in the game, but a good stout high at the onset is going to increase your front end thump potential with good frontogenesis with all that isentropic glide from the SW. I'm looking at 00z for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The stronger primary eventually bullies the high to the NE a bit...but before that happens, the high is actually stronger than 06z. That's what you want...the nuances in the ejecting shortwave after that will change things later in the game, but a good stout high at the onset is going to increase your front end thump potential with good frontogenesis with all that isentropic glide from the SW. Yeah you want that 950-850 upglide to be stout. Bob, check out how as the low approaches, it sort of maintains and reorganizes north of Maine, not retreating east. Retreating highs are the killer this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The stronger primary eventually bullies the high to the NE a bit...but before that happens, the high is actually stronger than 06z. That's what you want...the nuances in the ejecting shortwave after that will change things later in the game, but a good stout high at the onset is going to increase your front end thump potential with good frontogenesis with all that isentropic glide from the SW. I was just going to say, Bob's not wrong, the high is NE, but it's stronger versus 06z. Compensates for the 20 mb stronger SLP wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Nice looking storm next Thursday verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah you want that 950-850 upglide to be stout. Bob, check out how as the low approaches, it sort of maintains and reorganizes north of Maine, not retreating east. Retreating highs are the killer this time of year. Guess I'd personally like to see that H further S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I'm fine with this classic swfe with good antecedent cold. Plenty of snow on the front end at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I'm just nit-picking what I see to find a better solution. The GFS will be fine for a nearly season storm verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe 36-48 hours of snow/ice if that's right? Really weak, especially second half of Sunday through about 06z. Mood flakes or drizzle maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Guess I'd personally like to see that H further S. I'd like to see the low across ACK. LOL. But hey, it's early so I'll take whatever. My guess is the solutions today will not be the final result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 CMC keeps it more 2008esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Next week a wave develops along arctic front. A little -SN verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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