ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Been discussed ad nauseum, but this ain't a stemwinder cutter pattern. Typical euro over amped BS. Please no one lose it or get upset .It will come back to weak secondary solution very soon I don't think anyone is panicking...Euro is def the outlier right now, and even if a more cutter-ish trend starts to take hold, if we have that high position, it wouldn't surprise me to see it trend into a pretty good thump with a triple point low to our SE...that is typically the case on that type of system and the models usually don't grasp the airmass density/stubbornness over our region until a bit closer....but that is parsing into a lot of detail over a trend that is not even yet likely to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Damn that's a big area of <-30C 850 temps. I don't know off the top of my head, but I'd have to guess that would break a few records up there. decent snowpack up there after the weekend will really drop those temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Thicknesses in the 470s in MN...nice.Good for snowpack retention out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Certainly some junk shrinkage cold following that storm up into the Northeast, Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't think anyone is panicking...Euro is def the outlier right now, and even if a more cutter-ish trend starts to take hold, if we have that high position, it wouldn't surprise me to see it trend into a pretty good thump with a triple point low to our SE...that is typically the case on that type of system and the models usually don't grasp the airmass density/stubbornness over our region until a bit closer....but that is parsing into a lot of detail over a trend that is not even yet likely to materialize. Not here really.. but some people via texts. Some surprising ones . Would you say having that high trend better and in a colder position gives credence to a less amped end result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not here really.. but some people via texts. Some surprising ones . Would you say having that high trend better and in a colder position gives credence to a less amped end result? I don't think the high itself is really much of an indicator of how the storm is going to track. It's really just telling us more about the confluence in eastern Quebec and Nova Scotia. It's possible the storm ends up tracking like the Euro...but I would be skeptical of it at the moment since it has tried to do this multiple times already in this pattern and it ended up more dampened out once we got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 A slightly tamer euro would quote the wintry event for a lot of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not here really.. but some people via texts. Some surprising ones . Would you say having that high trend better and in a colder position gives credence to a less amped end result? Also, I'm not sure why people would "panic" SNE on south prior to mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Damn that's a big area of <-30C 850 temps. I don't know off the top of my head, but I'd have to guess that would break a few records up there. yeah ... sorry if it sounds like i'm repeating things but ... the Can/ensemble 10-day anomalies product has been rather drilled deeply since about three days now. i bring it up because that particular product has been fairly reliable over the years ..Typically, any N-door cold drain from montreal and or CAA in general that's stung was typically preceded by, or was significantly spaced in time with this product's indicating a massive flooding of the canadian shield. this is pretty impressive getting -5(*.4) SD to spread out over that much of Manotoba and arming over ontario in lesser fashion still means conceptually that it's probably not an accidental dose of cooling going on within meteorological stone's throw of the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Yeesh, -26C 850 temps to ORH by Dec 15th on Euro...damned early for stuff like that...that would probably obliterate record lows and record low maxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 no one was - it was all him you guys. come on - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Certainly some junk shrinkage cold following that storm up into the Northeast, WowLooks like it lifts out fairly quickly. Junk should rebound accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 for those curious ... here is the product i was mentioning: https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah ... sorry if it sounds like i'm repeating things but ... the Can/ensemble 10-day anomalies product has been rather drilled deeply since about three days now. i bring it up because that particular product has been fairly reliable over the years ..Typically, any N-door cold drain from montreal and or CAA in general that's stung was typically preceded by, or was significantly spaced in time with this product's indicating a massive flooding of the canadian shield. this is pretty impressive getting -5(*.4) SD to spread out over that much of Manotoba and arming over ontario in lesser fashion still means conceptually that it's probably not an accidental dose of cooling going on within meteorological stone's throw of the conus. Yeah and the regular ensemble suites have been hinting at some crazy cold too...when you see objective analog dates of Dec '83 and Dec '77, you def get the idea of what the pattern could be capable of in terms of cold intrusions into the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 14 minutes ago, Hazey said: Good for snowpack retention out there. The lakes are still warm. If the fetch sets up well across the lakes, parts of the UP, LP and NYS could get slammed pretty epic-ly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The lakes are still warm. If the fetch sets up well across the lakes, parts of the UP, LP and NYS could get slammed pretty epic-ly.Indeed. The fake effect snow machine should be in high gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, Hazey said: Indeed. The fake effect snow machine should be in high gear. I'd love to be perched in the highlands at 1500 feet in the UP of MI or NW WI for this type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: no one was - it was all him you guys. come on - Oh god ya it was!! He was just saying yesterday that we could throw out the Cutters lol...I guess the Euro heard him. Obviously like Scott said yesterday, can't throw anything out in this pattern....following the advice of seasoned pro's is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 UKMET looks similar to the GFS to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Yeesh, -26C 850 temps to ORH by Dec 15th on Euro...damned early for stuff like that...that would probably obliterate record lows and record low maxes.You can see at the end of the run, heights rise in preparation for the next cutter. Not a great run of the euro unless one likes 36hr bone chilling cold and dry. Hope it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 486 thicknesses over Gulf of Maine. That's awesome. I want to see the GOM turn over in one big gigantic maritime burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: UKMET looks similar to the GFS to me? Yeah looks like weak sauce on the system. 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: You can see at the end of the run, heights rise in preparation for the next cutter. Not a great run of the euro unless one likes 36hr bone chilling cold and dry. Hope it changes. The next system doesn't look nearly as wound up on the Euro, so it probably wouldn't be a true cutter. Not that it really matters at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: UKMET looks similar to the GFS to me? i thought so too... also, interesting transpolar look to the flow... i mean we've seen better constructs, but that's not bad. four ispopleth rail-roading is a good look for those wanting to goose fuel bills - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: i thought so too... also, interesting transpolar look to the flow... i mean we've seen better constructs, but that's not bad. four ispopleth rail-roading is a good look for those wanting to goose fuel bills - Yeah, if anything a weaker version. Doesn't deepen as it gets into Maritimes like the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 GFS is Weak, Euro Amped....perhaps take the middle ground here and now, which wouldn't be such a bad outcome for SNE if there was a compromise between the two camps as they stand today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 59 minutes ago, Hazey said: The GFS can't find its own ass with two hands and instructions in the 5 day but it'll nail the Christmas torch. It's almost laughable. You've been a bit on edge of late.....everything ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You've been a bit on edge of late.....everything ok? Funny, I was thinking the same thing....quite negative on things-I don't remember him being like that normally?? Unless I'm mistaken??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Funny, I was thinking the same thing....quite negative on things-I don't remember him being like that normally?? Unless I'm mistaken??? Yes...he's usually very passive. Sorry guys..no more OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes...he's usually very passive. Sorry guys..no more OT. Maybe we cut down his Christmas Tree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Haha. All good guys. I just bought a house and I move in on the 15th. I get sarcastic when a bit of stress is injected into the pic. Anyway back on topic. Seeing the Ukie less amped is a good sign that the euro had a bonkers run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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