Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 What a weenie CMC run.... gives warning level snowfall for the Monday deal away from the immediate coast... and drops well over a foot by next Saturday in those same areas The CMC is a joke and I say that with pride as I reside in the country that produced it. Now perhaps when the new super computer that EC purchased comes on line, it will go from terrible to some what poor. It's all about dem upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 We're days away from a spell of deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You mean Sunday night and Monday. GFS too fast You know the drill, These SWFE tend to get in here sooner then modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 30 minutes ago, Hazey said: Seeing the grinch period is right on track per the GFS. Lock it up with thongs and wife beaters on. Thankfully it is totally in clown range, but 12 Z GFS is looking very Grinchy at the end again today. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_52.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120712/gfs_T2m_neus_53.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I will say though...notice how the Grinch period doesn't come closer on the GFS with each run...it stays out in D15-16. I feel like it started breaking down the pattern by 12/19-20 a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I will say though...notice how the Grinch period doesn't come closer on the GFS with each run...it stays out in D15-16. I feel like it started breaking down the pattern by 12/19-20 a few days ago. I noticed that too. I still don't see a wholesale systematic reason to break down the pattern...other than maybe a relaxation through day 15 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I will say though...notice how the Grinch period doesn't come closer on the GFS with each run...it stays out in D15-16. I feel like it started breaking down the pattern by 12/19-20 a few days ago. 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I noticed that too. I still don't see a wholesale systematic reason to break down the pattern...other than maybe a relaxation through day 15 or so. Yes...it's waiting until Christmas, duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Sharper trough on the 12z Euro with a deeper vortmax, This may be a more amped run then 0z on mondays system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 euro amped up for sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: euro amped up for sunday night. Back to a cutter solution, lol. Nice model consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Back to a cutter solution, lol. Nice model consistency. Didn't expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The GFS can't find its own ass with two hands and instructions in the 5 day but it'll nail the Christmas torch. It's almost laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Good thump 90 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 988mb right up Detroit's fanny at 126 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Good thump 90 north. The high is in a good spot this run, so if it just comes in a little less amped, that could be a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Back to a cutter solution, lol. Nice model consistency.Models struggle, we befuddled. Might get a handle on it by Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd hold off on believing the GGEM right now. Eh, It's only ~25mb stronger than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Man that has an ice signal here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Well if there's silver linings...the high was in a better spot this run and we've already seen twice recently that the Euro has been over-amping troughs in the medium range in this pattern. So hopefully it is doing the same thing this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 That run is another Northern Maine special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Then it drops the absolute motherload of cold into the Plains. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The flow out ahead of that vort was pretty flat as it ejects out of the middle of the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Been discussed ad nauseum, but this ain't a stemwinder cutter pattern. Typical euro over amped BS. Please no one lose it or get upset .It will come back to weak secondary solution very soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Man that has an ice signal here Pretty chilly at 700 mb, 0C tickles to like MHT. So it does look more icy than a scalping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 So to break it down it layman terms, everything is in play atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Then it drops the absolute motherload of cold into the Plains. Wow. Damn that's a big area of <-30C 850 temps. I don't know off the top of my head, but I'd have to guess that would break a few records up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Damn that's a big area of <-30C 850 temps. I don't know off the top of my head, but I'd have to guess that would break a few records up there. Would be the earliest sub -30C soundings in the Upper Midwest if that was the case, by about a week. But clearly on the edge of climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Thicknesses in the 470s in MN...nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Pretty chilly at 700 mb, 0C tickles to like MHT. So it does look more icy than a scalping. The weather bell snow algorithm was still quite the front ender with 8-12" just inland away from the coast, probably factors some of that zr as snow would be my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Been discussed ad nauseum, but this ain't a stemwinder cutter pattern. Typical euro over amped BS. Please no one lose it or get upset .It will come back to weak secondary solution very soon LOL. Subtle nuances in the location/orientation of the trough as well as the Atlantic ridging can most certainly lead to a Euro solution. Dumb post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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