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Met Winter 2016-17 Banter


dmillz25

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This winter is very depressing. We are almost into February, and not only have we not had any snowfalls above of 3 inches ( where I am in rockland) , but we cant even get a model sweat. Each day and night, I look over the 12z and 00z model suites, and whether it's 120 hours out, 240 hours out, 300 hours out, etc....we can't even get a sweat! Not only has this winter been a horror show for snowfall, but not even a good possibility of one at any point? It's maddening at this point.

Ive seen bad winters before...but cannot remember one that doesnt even give us a few reasonable sweats. Im disgusted

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32 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Isotherm being optimistic for February is good news in a otherwise ****ty winter up to this point

Agreed. Maybe at the very least we can break KNYC's streak of 19 months in a row of above normal temperatures. Throw in normal to above normal snowfall for the month and I'd have to look back to see the last time we had that combination. It's been awhile. 

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4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Agreed. Maybe at the very least we can break KNYC's streak of 19 months in a row of above normal temperatures. Throw in normal to above normal snowfall for the month and I'd have to look back to see the last time we had that combination. It's been awhile. 

February 2015?

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The QBO continues to set new records following the disruption last winter.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070373/abstract

 

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a tropical lower stratospheric, downward propagating zonal wind variation, with an average period of ~28 months. The QBO has been constantly documented since 1953. Here we describe the evolution of the QBO during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015–2016 using radiosonde observations and meteorological reanalyses. Normally, the QBO would show a steady downward propagation of the westerly phase. In 2015–2016, there was an anomalous upward displacement of this westerly phase from ~30 hPa to 15 hPa. These westerlies impinge on or “cutoff” the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase. In addition, easterly winds develop at 40 hPa. Comparisons to tropical wind statistics for the 1953 to present record demonstrate that this 2015–2016 QBO disruption is unprecedented.

 

Sam Lillo Jan 23
30mb equatorial winds recently have been sitting near 2 sigma above normal ... largest anomaly on record. Strong westerly #QBOpic.twitter.com/Yo5hBCjYLs
 
 
Brian Brettschneider Jan 23
@bhensonweather @splillo For the month of December 2016, 30 mb zonal (U) winds were the most positive on record (red colors) since 1949. pic.twitter.com/mQbzE1fKoU

 

 

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1967 ao numbers...

1967  2  1 -0.419
1967  2  2  0.282
1967  2  3  0.965
1967  2  4  1.021
1967  2  5 -0.003
1967  2  6 -0.856
1967  2  7 -0.785
1967  2  8 -0.183
1967  2  9  0.722
1967  2 10  0.756
1967  2 11  0.421
1967  2 12  0.704
1967  2 13  0.716
1967  2 14  0.789
1967  2 15  1.181
1967  2 16  1.786
1967  2 17  2.173
1967  2 18  2.573
1967  2 19  2.544
1967  2 20  2.881
1967  2 21  2.607
1967  2 22  1.588
1967  2 23  1.419
1967  2 24  0.374
1967  2 25  0.282
1967  2 26  1.162
1967  2 27  2.858
1967  2 28  4.306
1967  3  1  3.989
1967  3  2  3.116
1967  3  3  2.523
1967  3  4  2.369
1967  3  5  2.600
1967  3  6  2.553
1967  3  7  2.725
1967  3  8  3.136
1967  3  9  3.309
1967  3 10  3.048
1967  3 11  3.068
1967  3 12  3.073
1967  3 13  2.117
1967  3 14  1.600
1967  3 15  1.733
1967  3 16  1.961
1967  3 17  2.242
1967  3 18  2.471
1967  3 19  2.368
1967  3 20  2.317
1967  3 21  2.537
1967  3 22  2.196
1967  3 23  1.637
1967  3 24  1.060
1967  3 25  0.397

when it was slightly negative in early February NYC got its largest snowstorm of the season...On March 19th 1967 NYC had single digit temps...Parts of Long Island was below zero...NYC had a 10" snowfall on the 22nd...all this with an ao near plus two or higher...this shows we could get real cold and snowy without a negative ao but it does help at times...

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12 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Agreed. Maybe at the very least we can break KNYC's streak of 19 months in a row of above normal temperatures. Throw in normal to above normal snowfall for the month and I'd have to look back to see the last time we had that combination. It's been awhile. 

I'm looking back through the records and looking for a similar stretch of warmth- didn't we have 22 out of 24 months above normal back in 1990 and 1991?

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1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

I continue to be quite intrigued by the potential stratospheric progression over the next couple weeks, which may lead to situation whereby NAM values reach their minima in the second half of February into the first half of March. The models are slowly but surely beginning to detect what I've been noting over the past week concerning the more effective wave-2 follow up, subsequent to the initial ongoing w1/displacement event. The susceptibility of the stratospheric vortex to further attacks will be increased via the w1, but it will be insufficient insofar as significant tropospheric geopotential height reversal in the NAM/NAO domains. However, the wave-2 precursor should induce an upward propagating splitting wave, possibly in the 2/8-2/15 period. Dual action from the Eurasian and Pacific sides could effectuate a fairly rapid tropospheric response by mid February and onward.

 

I am not yet at the inflection point of pulling the trigger on this evolution definitively, in terms of stratospheric progression and subsequent tropospheric response, but my confidence on the probability of its occurrence is increasing. The resultant impacts could be our most negative NAO/AO period of the winter, circa 2/15-3/15. The NAO and AO are neutral to positive for the first half of Feb.

 

As far as the synoptic set-ups for snow prior to 2/15, 2/6 still looks like a time frame to monitor for a moderate event. I am not as interested in 2/6 as I was in prior days, but it still holds potential certainly.

 

Regardless, an intriguing period of tracking from a meteorological, academic perspective at the very least. Changes are clearly afoot with the BDC and O3 transport, although the WQBO will attempt to destructively interfere, its modulation will be lessened by the double-jab wave flux. I expect stratospheric charts to become more impressive again in the D10+.

Wow, @BxEngine was just telling me the same thing.  

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14 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

When winter fails you at home it's always winter somewhere 

IMG_0323.JPG

Where is that?  I just got back from 4 days at killington. We had on and off snowshowers the entire time. It never amount to more than 3-4 inches by the end of our stay, but it was a great winter atmosphere. 

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