CAPE Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 From Mount Holly AFD- .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... **stormy** Please do not [under]estimate the power of this event for tonight and Friday morning! A strong easterly gale together with a pwat axis of almost 2 inches and max inflow almost coincidentally aligned nw-se through De BAY this evening and crossing normal to the coastal front or inverted trough developed by the cold air damming of the past 24 hours, will result in considerable flooding, both freshwater and tidal. Along and north of I-78...periods of rain and drizzle FCST basis: 50/50 blended 12z/gfs/nam mos. Thunder probably south and east of PHL as per the modeled negative SWI. FFA expanded into SNJ. EC is probably going to be correct with max rainfall from this entire event in our area. We are thinking storm totals widespread 3-6" delmarva with isolated 1 foot or even more over Sussex County DE. For the new watch area...widespread 2-4 expected with at least isolated 6+ close to DE Bay and the Atlantic coast. When i see EC synoptic scale qpf of 6"...my mind thinks potential 9. I`m not saying 9 but if the EC pans out...highly efficient rains with embedded convection can yield more than model guidance. We realize this is the only model guidance with this much qpf. We also realize that model guidance has been focused west of our area and we`re realizing quite a bit more than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: From Mount Holly AFD- .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... **stormy** Please do not [under]estimate the power of this event for tonight and Friday morning! A strong easterly gale together with a pwat axis of almost 2 inches and max inflow almost coincidentally aligned nw-se through De BAY this evening and crossing normal to the coastal front or inverted trough developed by the cold air damming of the past 24 hours, will result in considerable flooding, both freshwater and tidal. Along and north of I-78...periods of rain and drizzle FCST basis: 50/50 blended 12z/gfs/nam mos. Thunder probably south and east of PHL as per the modeled negative SWI. FFA expanded into SNJ. EC is probably going to be correct with max rainfall from this entire event in our area. We are thinking storm totals widespread 3-6" delmarva with isolated 1 foot or even more over Sussex County DE. For the new watch area...widespread 2-4 expected with at least isolated 6+ close to DE Bay and the Atlantic coast. When i see EC synoptic scale qpf of 6"...my mind thinks potential 9. I`m not saying 9 but if the EC pans out...highly efficient rains with embedded convection can yield more than model guidance. We realize this is the only model guidance with this much qpf. We also realize that model guidance has been focused west of our area and we`re realizing quite a bit more than modeled. Damn rain thieves. Now I have to put up with high humidity and dark clouds while DE gets to have all the fun. I am sick and tired of supplying all the damn moisture so Del weenies can enjoy the flooding. Thats OUR rain! The models gave it to the DC region, and Del stole it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Been pouring rain all day in Lewes. Weather spotter a few miles from here reported over 10 inches in the last 24 hours. Looks like a lot more still on its way. If only it were snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 The funny part is today was billed as the catastrophe for southern MD and its been a nice, cloudy fall day, while yesterday was supposed to be light rain but turned into a surprise 5 inches. I hope someone doesn't post a rain map for both days combined and call it a model victory though. Edit: also its good to see Jebman back, I hope you stick around for the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Ive been stuck at 3.55 since dawn. Wind has dried the sidewalks and roadway here. Can barely tell it rained unless you walk in the grass. Even the deck is dry. Can't buy drizzle or a Sprinkle in my location. Did pretty well considering. Though. Brisk wind is surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Rain has moved back in from the east in the past hour. Moderate atm, and still windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Radar looks to be filling in the the se. might be another round of mod. Rain on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 2.53" storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Radar looks better than I expected. Gonna rain all night, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 4.0" total. 3.9" since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Deluge in this squall line moving in from the SE. Very windy. Surprised there is no thunder. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 This is a huge and crushing storm still but it's missing the core of the weenie population so people will remember it as a bust. Not sure there's much utility in a map with 8" of rain from NWS in an event like this. Gotta be a better way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 3 hours ago, Deck Pic said: Bust haha nice name/profile pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 haha nice name/profile picLmao!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: The funny part is today was billed as the catastrophe for southern MD and its been a nice, cloudy fall day, while yesterday was supposed to be light rain but turned into a surprise 5 inches. I hope someone doesn't post a rain map for both days combined and call it a model victory though. Edit: also its good to see Jebman back, I hope you stick around for the winter! This is turning into a serious event for the Delmarva. The coastal areas have gale force winds, moderate tidal flooding and flash flooding. The Broadkill river is over it's banks and the town of Milton has shut down because of that flooding. The Nanticoke river is expected to go over it's flood stage of 8 feet tonight. That may flood Bridgeville and other areas. Crisfield Md. Is flooded. We had three area house fires last night from lightening strikes. NWS expects 12 inches of rain before we are through with this. Numerous roads are flooded. Last week I was in OBX. We got 12 to 15 inches of rain there. I am sick of rain. I may build an ark if it stops raining long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, SlowerLowerDE said: This is turning into a serious event for the Delmarva. The coastal areas have gale force winds, moderate tidal flooding and flash flooding. The Broadkill river is over it's banks and the town of Milton has shut down because of that flooding. The Nanticoke river is expected to go over it's flood stage of 8 feet tonight. That may flood Bridgeville and other areas. Crisfield Md. Is flooded. We had three area house fires last night from lightening strikes. NWS expects 12 inches of rain before we are through with this. Numerous roads are flooded. Last week I was in OBX. We got 12 to 15 inches of rain there. I am sick of rain. I may build an ark if it stops raining long enough. But very few here really care because they are focused on the DC bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Even the light returns that are moving over the area are putting down decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, snowfan said: Even the light returns that are moving over the area are putting down decent rates. I noticed that. I heard rain on the roof and was kinda surprised because I didn't see much on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I care This has been a big time event for much of the region--DC got dry slotted but when isn't that the case lol. Between lower MD seeing a lot of rain yesterday, the Delmarva today, and EC NPZ getting big rain, this event more than produced in spots. I've been impressed with the wind, even this far inland. Felt like tropical on the way to work this morning and like a warm winter storm when I left. Stay safe! I know you do, and others do as well. I said it mostly in jest. I live pretty close to that area so it feels more local to me. I am closing in on 2" but nothing like what has occurred to my SE. I am surprised by the wind though- lots of small limbs and tree debris down on my property. Quite squally with the moderate showers moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 26 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I noticed that. I heard rain on the roof and was kinda surprised because I didn't see much on radar. Stealth rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Thanks for all the sweet posts. I know that you folks care. We are the often forgotten area of this sub forum. I do feel for the people who needed rain because we often get drought in this area and that is hard too. I hope Mother Nature takes plenty of this rain their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Even though I downplayed this its a major rain event for everyone except a 20 mile radius from the monument get just 10 miles se of beltway and 5"+ is commonplace. That is not a bust even if Dc proper did not get nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 0.25" since 6:45 am for something along the lines of 3.10" over the last three days (too lazy to go back and search my posts for recent measurements!). That's not too bad, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1.47" past 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Even the light returns that are moving over the area are putting down decent rates. It finally started raining once they cancelled the flash flood watch. Radar looks decent.. growing rain area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Pouring here suddenly. Looks like heavy rain is blossoming right over me. Radar looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Even the light returns that are moving over the area are putting down decent rates. Commented on this very thing last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Have other people noticed how frequently we have coastal flooding now for the bay counties and for DC? It's like once a month or even more frequently nowadays that we see at least a coastal flood advisory. It seemed like a no-brainer that we would see moderate coastal flooding in parts of the area with the extended easterly winds, and that's what's been forecast now for the next couple of cycles from DC to NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Moderate rain here again. I believe 4.1" in one day would be the most I've ever recorded here, eclipsing an event in early May 2011 (that flooded my basement). Sandy dumped 6"+ (if you can trust a rain gauge in 50 mph winds), but that was over a 2-day span. I might be able to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 hours ago, SlowerLowerDE said: This is turning into a serious event for the Delmarva. The coastal areas have gale force winds, moderate tidal flooding and flash flooding. The Broadkill river is over it's banks and the town of Milton has shut down because of that flooding. The Nanticoke river is expected to go over it's flood stage of 8 feet tonight. That may flood Bridgeville and other areas. Crisfield Md. Is flooded. We had three area house fires last night from lightening strikes. NWS expects 12 inches of rain before we are through with this. Numerous roads are flooded. Last week I was in OBX. We got 12 to 15 inches of rain there. I am sick of rain. I may build an ark if it stops raining long enough. Believe me, I care about you guys. I'm the one who made the thread for the lower shore people in the first place. I'm just saying this was a poorly modeled event that could be easily spun with a rainfall map to make it look like a win. Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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