allgame830 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, MarkSC said: Seriously, five surface lows at 30-40 degrees north? and also the furthest east one is reading 011 MB... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 It is plausible though. The track and timing are nearly spot on with the GFS through 72 hours--it just gets a tad west into FL. That allows it to weaken enough so the trough doesn't catch it. I wouldn't want to be making evacuation calls in FL,GA and SC. If Euro stays 50 miles east, Matthew would ride further north like GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Gov Haley has order a mass evacuation of the coast of SC. Starting tomorrow http://www.wltx.com/weather/forecast/tracking-the-tropics/gov-haley-orders-coast-evacuation-declares-state-of-emergency/328935898 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 This storm has forward momentum, the way it handled the Haiti land interaction (sorry, didn't see you there) foretells a very vigorous hurricane in the Bahamas (as others have said, cat-5 quite possible again) and minimum pressure could be close to 900 mbs by late tomorrow or early Thursday, a storm like that seems unlikely to move off a NNW heading so I would put a lot more faith in GFS solution than Euro solution at this point, not to mention possible corrupt run from an early stage. Of course Florida must be on highest alert but I would not shift the probability level much yet, 18z GFS will react to any validity in this Euro scenario, if there's no hint of it then I would be inclined to toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Gov Haley has order a mass evacuation of the coast of SC. Starting tomorrow http://www.wltx.com/weather/forecast/tracking-the-tropics/gov-haley-orders-coast-evacuation-declares-state-of-emergency/328935898 I think she may have just shot himself in the foot if this thing ends up not hitting SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Gov Haley has order a mass evacuation of the coast of SC. Starting tomorrow http://www.wltx.com/weather/forecast/tracking-the-tropics/gov-haley-orders-coast-evacuation-declares-state-of-emergency/328935898 Let the panicking commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I think the Euro looks a tad too slow and south through Cuba. That keeps Matthew too weak I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I think he may have just shot himself in the foot if this thing ends up not hitting SC. She. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, wxmx said: Day 10...Matt is still alive, drifting SW Yup, meandering West of Key West, FL where it can reorganize and nail Florida again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I think he may have just shot himself in the foot if this thing ends up not hitting SC. Agreed. Seems like public officials are more guided by social media these days, then by what the higher ups tell them. "ohh noez, the sky is falling" Eyewall looks very healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Haley did point out that it could be cancelled if there is a big change overnight, though did say that SC avoiding this storm seems very unlikely. Final decision will be made tomorrow morning. Medical evacuations underway presently and schools and government offices in many counties closed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I think he may have just shot himself in the foot if this thing ends up not hitting SC. Do you realize how many people that is on the move at almost the same time... if you want it to be orderly you HAVE to start early. Could that end up with people leaving that didn't HAVE to, yes. But imagine if they didn't evacuate until the last minute, grid lock... people not being able to escape... People may laugh if it is a near miss... but if the evac to late that could go down in history as inaction that costs lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even the short term forecast by Florida is a definite deviation though from most other 12z guidance and the early 18z hurricane models looked slightly east as well, emphasis on slightly. Well, I know they aren't necessarily the models you'd want to go to battle with, but the UK, GFDL and NAV all show similar solutions with 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hugo said: Haley did point out that it could be cancelled if there is a big change overnight, though did say that SC avoiding this storm seems very unlikely. Final decision will be made tomorrow morning. Medical evacuations underway presently and schools and government offices in many counties closed tomorrow. And to be fair, while there are evac routes in place they can't handle a sudden mandatory evacuation. The governor has to make the decision and stick to it and it's better to be safe and have nothing happen instead of waiting until the last second and stranding thousands of people in harms way when it could have been easily avoided so I don't blame Gov. Haley a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I have no problem with this idea. A Category 4 with you in the bullseye just a few days out, might as be safe and do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I think she may have just shot himself in the foot if this thing ends up not hitting SC. Maybe but maybe not. Lived in Charleston for awhile growing up, saw my share of storms there. That country isn't just sea-level low at the coast, it's low for a hundred miles inland and full of swamps and rivers, so the rain off this storm even if it stays off the coast is going to be a big deal (remember what happened to them last year). This kind of storm would be devastating there, of course, along with all the beach communities up and down the coast. But the main thing to know is that South Carolina doesn't exactly have "the best roads". They aren't massive, they don't have a bunch of lanes, 4 lanes at most, and a lot of it is 2 lane highways. The reason they start early is exactly what she alluded to in her announcement - if everyone leaves at the same time, nobody will get out before the storm arrives because the highway infrastructure isn't substantial and it will completely gridlock. Telling people to start leaving 2 days before the storm could hit is the best thing they can do to try and protect people and get them west/northwest and off the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 25 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I think she may have just shot himself in the foot if this thing ends up not hitting SC. Agree. In a year, nobody remembers spending a night in an inland hotel for a storm that never came. But for a lifetime people remember if people died because an evacuation order came too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Do you realize how many people that is on the move at almost the same time... if you want it to be orderly you HAVE to start early. Could that end up with people leaving that didn't HAVE to, yes. But imagine if they didn't evacuate until the last minute, grid lock... people not being able to escape... People may laugh if it is a near miss... but if the evac to late that could go down in history as inaction that costs lives.Too many uncertainties with too high a risk. I actually expect Georgia to follow shortly and make the same decisions. Lead time is critical with a storm potentially riding the coastline. If it doesn't make landfall, count it a blessing. But from that angle and storm motion, even typical track error is extremely difficult to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Rembember the 12z Ukmet is pretty similar. Misses the trough then heads back SE at 144, to almost the same spot as the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Too many uncertainties with too high a risk. I actually expect Georgia to follow shortly and make the same decisions. Lead time is critical with a storm potentially riding the coastline. If it doesn't make landfall, count it a blessing. But from that angle and storm motion, even typical track error is extremely difficult to forecast. Even if it doesn't make landfall, it will rain. Those lowcountry areas flood fast cause they are full of swamps and rivers. And once the roads start flooding, thoughts of evacuation are way too late - you hae to get people off the roads before the rain comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Yeah, I just realized about the need for lead time, yeah it's a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Too many uncertainties with too high a risk. I actually expect Georgia to follow shortly and make the same decisions. Lead time is critical with a storm potentially riding the coastline. If it doesn't make landfall, count it a blessing. But from that angle and storm motion, even typical track error is extremely difficult to forecast. Exactly... I don't think people understand how hard elected officials have to think on decisions like this. But remember every time you vote... the person you elect has to sit up late and think about this stuff, and remember that if they make the wrong decision it could literally cost lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, CherokeeGA said: Maybe but maybe not. Lived in Charleston for awhile growing up, saw my share of storms there. That country isn't just sea-level low at the coast, it's low for a hundred miles inland and full of swamps and rivers, so the rain off this storm even if it stays off the coast is going to be a big deal (remember what happened to them last year). This kind of storm would be devastating there, of course, along with all the beach communities up and down the coast. But the main thing to know is that South Carolina doesn't exactly have "the best roads". They aren't massive, they don't have a bunch of lanes, 4 lanes at most, and a lot of it is 2 lane highways. The reason they start early is exactly what she alluded to in her announcement - if everyone leaves at the same time, nobody will get out before the storm arrives because the highway infrastructure isn't substantial and it will completely gridlock. Telling people to start leaving 2 days before the storm could hit is the best thing they can do to try and protect people and get them west/northwest and off the roads. Those 2 things right there, absofreakinlutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GarnetDH Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just adding as an SC resident here that: 1) Haley took some flak - deserved or not - for the flood situation last year as there were some appearances of not enough resources available to help with rescues and other needs during the flood. At core, she is a politician and this would reasonably drive her to be a little more out in front. The timeframe for the storm is Friday evening - Saturday morning with some effects of the storm coming ashore a little sooner. Tomorrow is Wednesday and would be the date of evacuation. That leaves 2.5 days, roughly speaking, with the evacuation orders going in tomorrow at 3PM. 2) SC is a small state with two big concentrations of the population on the coast, meaning we will need as much time as anyone to evacuate a significant portion of our population which will also be evacuating alongside two larger adjacent states. With those two things in mind, it seems the majority of model trends have some sort of interaction with the coast. The climatology supports a possible strike and we have a storm that's over-performed to some extent in how it held together that's powerful and unpredictable given the tools we are blessed with. I think it's less panic and more being prudent. Should the information change, she can reasonably walk it back. That said, please keep up the discussion for us simple SC folk looking to learn and protect loved ones. I'm pretty sure that goes for anybody potentially in the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The ECMWF drops a huge amount of rain in GA and SC...well over 10" and approaching 20" in isolated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 23 minutes ago, Tibet said: Do you realize how many people that is on the move at almost the same time... if you want it to be orderly you HAVE to start early. Could that end up with people leaving that didn't HAVE to, yes. But imagine if they didn't evacuate until the last minute, grid lock... people not being able to escape... People may laugh if it is a near miss... but if the evac to late that could go down in history as inaction that costs lives. Good post, I would rather be cautious and lose some money instead of gambling and losing life. Either way she can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The new Euro track is about the worst track for Florida/GA/SC imaginable. Not a east to west path across the state which puts only a 50-75 mile area of coastline in the path of the strongest wind but hundreds of miles of coastline in the path of damaging winds and tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I have family in St. Augustine... should they be starting to worry?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 24 minutes ago, bdgwx said: The ECMWF drops a huge amount of rain in GA and SC...well over 10" and approaching 20" in isolated areas. 28.2" max in South Carolina, and in short order. Could be more catastrophic flooding if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 majority of eps members still offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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