Amped Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Navgem all the way to west Georgia lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 28 minutes ago, Hugo said: So apparently word is spreading around SC that all state schools have been ordered closed, an evac of all coastal areas will initiate at noon tomorrow and the forecast is for a Cat 4. Obviously that last part is a huge red flag that it's BS, but I've gotten probably five texts in the last few minutes all with exactly the same info. These are people in local government and public safety. They're all saying the source is some conference call. I was just told by a friend of mine unless the models shift east, they will start evacuations tomorrow at 3 PM and reverse traffic on the interstates. Haley got burned by the floods in Columbia, She will be overly cautious this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 18 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Ukie appears to landfall in FL and again in GA, and never goes north of the NC/SC border before sputtering out. Completely misses the trough...apparently it's moving SE at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: I was just told by a friend of mine unless the models shift east, they will start evacuations tomorrow at 3 PM and reverse traffic on the interstates. Haley got burned by the floods in Columbia, She will be overly cautious this time. Haley is meeting with SCEMD now and will have a press conference at 3:00 PM today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Emergency managers need to stop with the crying wolf syndrome. Just because a Day 5 hurricane model shows your location getting hit, doesn't warrant mass panic and evacuation. The response of "well, you can't be too safe" is a bunk answer. It makes you looked like a panicked, feckless public official that doesn't have good source information or is capable of making a judgement call. This only sets our field back (emergency management) further and further with each colossal bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Navgem all the way to west Georgia lol. The NavGEM or then NOGAPS was the first model to bring Isabel into VA and NC when everything else was up the coast into LI. We've come along way since then though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The truth is, it's a hopelessly impossible situation for Haley and other governors/emergency management types. Second-guessers will be prolific, sadly ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Isn't at the surface... but that is getting pretty close... Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 16:08Z Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 90° (E) from the eye center. 925mb 312m (1,024 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 22.5°C (72°F) 90° (from the E) 147 knots (169 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Down to 949 MB with SFMR values around 135 MPH in the new VORTEX. Guess we have our answer on how long it would take for Matthew to start strengthening again - about two hours. Eye is closed at 30 miles circular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Haven't heard of any evacuation talk yet in myrtle beach here. I can't regardless though because I work in a hospital between here and Wilmington. I'll be in lock down mode there with the patients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I disagree about being too early and calling for evacuations tomorrow afternoon. People need to be told first and foremost that Matthew is taking a track that is the shape of the SE coastline and due to the angle of approach, the forecast will be far more difficult to get correct. People need to be told that there is a huge risk even if they do not get hit. Too much at stake. You can't bust on a forecast when the uncertainty is too great.A major hurricane approaching from the SE and paralleling the coastline. The forecast even within 24 hours could be in error. The core of the hurricane may pass over hundreds of miles of coastline or it may miss it entirely. Local emergency management can't just wait around to see what's going to verify. Again, too much risk even if higher than normal uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 12z GEFS is a whiff east. Minimal impacts to US outside the coastline. Euro will be along shortly for the kill shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Again, the fight or flight with each run is asinine. Besides that, numerous GEFS members bring it on shore still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: 12z GEFS is a whiff east. Minimal impacts to US outside the coastline. Euro will be along shortly for the kill shot. Thanks Debbie Downer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 This would be insane to see happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, yoda said: Thanks Debbie Downer Nevermind that numerous members bring it on shore still. Or so close to the shore that there would be significant impacts inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: This would be insane to see happen. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783349603273932800/photo/1 That would be the best troll act of a tropical cyclone in the history of the Atlantic basin. We should rename the storm to "U Mad Bro?" if/when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Nevermind that numerous members bring it on shore still. Or so close to the shore that there would be significant impacts inland. Exactly. More members than not make landfall from what I can see, and many show a track similar to the UK. Correction: east of 06z slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Whew boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 All these premature "will it" or "won't it" calls (even from red taggers) with a seemingly high degree of certainty are the epitome of silliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That would be the best troll act of a tropical cyclone in the history of the Atlantic basin. We should rename the storm to "U Mad Bro?" if/when it happens. There was a storm in the 90s that literally sat off NC for like a week as a Cat 3 and never came onshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Like I said yesterday, we still have no clue what the hell is going to actually happen, aside from that it will get at least relatively close to the US coast. Stop living and dying with each run, catch a clue and realize the models have been like windshield wipers. Anyways, thus far, the islands haven't really effected strength much at all... Only impacts appear to be a less pretty/less organized core - which will change in a hurry past Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, andyhb said: All these premature "will it" or "won't it" calls (even from red taggers) with a seemingly high degree of certainty are the epitome of silliness. THIS, we have a crap ton of model runs to go, and right now would be a good time to pay attention to what the storms actually doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: THIS, we have a crap ton of model runs to go, and right now would be a good time to pay attention to what the storms actually doing. Well I don't think people aren't paying attention. It seems more like the first to call something and get it right "wins", which is not how responsible analysis works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 12z HWRF makes landfall very close to Oak Island, NC early Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'm reaading some of the comments even from pros and I am baffled. How can a pro forecaster go completely weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The key to the ultimate outcome of Matthew is what's happening with the trough coming down from Canada...has anyone any idea when it's going to be over the US RAOB network? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillycane Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That would be the best troll act of a tropical cyclone in the history of the Atlantic basin. We should rename the storm to "U Mad Bro?" if/when it happens. I'm normally just a lurker on here but have to say, this literally made me LOL! ...now back to your regularly scheduled east/west track debate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looks like the eye is clearing out again on satellite. Man that was fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 It's worth pointing out here that one single model run cannot, by definition, be a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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