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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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1 minute ago, Hugo said:

The eyewall itself might brush Charleston, but I don't think you'd see it come onshore anywhere in this run. I mean, at 102, the center is a good 50+ miles offshore of MYR. 

LOL at "a good 50+ miles offshore" on a 4.5 day track forecast for a tropical cyclone.

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Just now, wxmx said:

Yeah, but the WAR breaks up sooner, that allows for a more eastward motion.

I see what others are saying. The slower motion initially prevented it from making it far enough North. I think Matthew almost has to come onshore in the Carolinas in order to have an impact from the Mid-Atlantic northward. 

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Trough is shallower this run than 6z.  Not sure why everyone thinks its sharper.     Its less negative, not as deep, and more progressive over the top of Matthew this run.   This leads to a further east result once up to SC/NC boarder compared to 6z GFS run. 

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Ignoring the models, a run along the coast is incredibly tricky to forecast. If it follows the geography of the coastline, any minor deviation in track could literally be the difference between a disturbing wind damage path or light damage and the inconveniences of heavy rain. Very difficult forecast even within 48 hours. Going to require a lot of patience on the part of coastal residents. You just have to prepare for the worst and hope you get lucky.


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14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

GFS still digging the trough, which is slower but still plenty amplified enough. All that really translates to is a slower movement of Matthew so far.

Yeah it wasn't as pronounced through 42, but damn it's amplified and progressive at 102. 

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9 minutes ago, Hugo said:

In fact, I think one of the biggest threats that this GFS run would bring is one of the biggest ever evacuations that turns out to be for nothing. 

 

I'm starting to agree at this point.  Not only since Euro has been stubbornly east, and GFS trending towards it.

but also how there isn't a strong flow to bring it onshore.  We all know how hesitant Canes are to making landfall once nearing land....ESPECIALLY when there's a weak flow.  Odds are there won't be a S.C. , N.C. landfall.  The flow (west) will actually be stronger when nearing Florida...then it will be when nearing NC, SC.

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GFS moves to the Euro idea of out to sea from the NC coast.  I'm thinking if the Euro holds serve with that same solution, the NHC will shift the track further off shore.  It ain't over yet for the NJ/NYC area, but things are looking up (for me and people who don't want the storm to hit here). 

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So apparently word is spreading around SC that all state schools have been ordered closed, an evac of all coastal areas will initiate at noon tomorrow and the forecast is for a Cat 4.  Obviously that last part is a huge red flag that it's BS, but I've gotten probably five texts in the last few minutes all with exactly the same info. These are people in local government and public safety.  They're all saying the source is some conference call. 

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Not surprised at all by this development. All along I have thought that a near miss was the most likely scenario, although this close of a brush would still have some decent impacts onshore and yes, it would not take a huge deviation for a US landfall. But it could trend more east also.....

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9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Out to sea it goes at 108 and 120... follows 12z GFS idea (12z GGEM that is)

Follows the ECMWF idea, you mean...

The track around Florida has had some wobbles, but the Euro has been miles apart from other guidance with the trough depth and orientation. It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that a 70/30 compromise towards the Euro was in order.

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2 minutes ago, Hugo said:

So apparently word is spreading around SC that all state schools have been ordered closed, an evac of all coastal areas will initiate at noon tomorrow and the forecast is for a Cat 4.  Obviously that last part is a huge red flag that it's BS, but I've gotten probably five texts in the last few minutes all with exactly the same info. These are people in local government and public safety.  They're all saying the source is some conference call. 

 

geez, guess they haven't seen the GFS..  :facepalm:

 

more good footage.  they act like it's typical walk-in-the-park weather

 

 

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1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

geez, guess they haven't seen the GFS..  :facepalm:

 

more good footage.  they act like it's typical walk-in-the-park weather

 

 

Well the Cat 4 stuff is silly, but if the current GFS is what happens, there will be evacuations from Florida to North Carolina. Remember the massive evac in Florida for Floyd? It never came ashore there. 

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