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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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3 minutes ago, friedmators said:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
  SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...

Tornado warned St Marys ,GA

 

JEA worker took a bolt while working in a bucket truck

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Worst Case Scenario not happening is NOT a bust.

TOR warning for just north of Jacksonville, now, too.

Matthew's going to be going through the cooler waters west of the Gulf Stream for a while.  

 

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183,000 without power in Brevard County, only 300,000 customers in that County. Is that a bust?

130,000 out of 175,000 without power in Volusia County, is that a bust? Thats 75% of the County without power. I doubt this is a bust to those people. 

573,000 customers without power in Florida right now...is that a bust? 

This is a high impact storm for a large and growing area. While it wasnt catastrophic, it was not a bust. 

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1 minute ago, SharonA said:

Worst Case Scenario not happening is NOT a bust.

TOR warning for just north of Jacksonville, now, too.

Matthew's going to be going through the cooler waters west of the Gulf Stream for a while.  

 

Worst case not happening is good.  For Christ sake, if you predicted a landfall on Cape Canaveral, your track was off by about 10miles.  That's excellent forecasting.  Gotta keep an eye on the GA and SC coasts as it moves north. If the turn happens slower we landfall.

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The NHC also did pretty well forecasting intensity, the eyewall is currently a mile or two offshore of Daytona beach. Any minor wobble and the west eyewall is onshore.

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Listen up folks.....keep it on topic...the next bust/not happening/this is terrible/nhc sucks/etc post will have warnings and suspensions added to the person posting these things. Do not just post to see your name in this thread either, as this will cause you to have a faster track to the outside not able to look in. Keep the banter in the appropriate thread ;)  

 

Now back to your regular scheduled discussion

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Let's face it that "bust" is thrown around any time forecast extremes don't happen, even when conditions are still pretty extreme.  We do it all the time here for rain/snow storms.  Not worth getting worked up about.

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Looks like some hurricane force gusts are making their way along the oceanfront of Daytona Beach, with some structural damage to high rises occurring. 

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RBTOP is a good colorized IR to look for cooling and warming trends of cloudtops. Noticing what appears to be warming inside the eyewall. Convective remnants of the old eye possibly starting to dissipate now. Shear actually isn't too bad versus storm motion. Half the circulation and feeders are still over the gulf stream. But the shallower shelf isn't exactly horrible to maintain. We might get a more classic appearance before the day is over.

938a304477965f6ba72a3c3e70352411.jpg

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Matthew is starting to have that classic look on IR where the Southern half of the cyclone completely dries out and the rain shield expands to the NW and North of the center.

For the time being, radar indicates that the core and eye are still in good shape.

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Hurricane warnings all the way up into NC now and TS warnings 70 miles inland in SC...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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33 minutes ago, Morris said:

Latest recon supports a downgrade to cat 2. let's see if NHC bites. They should. It's somewhat of a test for them.

Eh. FL winds close to 110kt, doubt they would. Despite that SFMR definitely supports only cat 2. (And they maintained cat 3.)

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Storm surge already trapping people in St. Augustine. Scary for these 20 people..



And another here of someone watching a wave hit the glass door in their basement. Clearly the safest place to be...





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15 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Eh. FL winds close to 110kt, doubt they would. Despite that SFMR definitely supports only cat 2. (And they maintained cat 3.)

Dropsondes also very convincingly support a downgrade.

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6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

8 million without power during sandy. I have freinds down in Palm beach county that were terrified to the point of crippling fear by the hype. They woke up with power to a sunny day and a couple Palm fronds down. 

Other then the coast north of Juno, for the highest population areas this was definitely a bust

First, the power grid down there is much more equipped for these winds than up here. Second, there is much higher concentration of people in the NYC metro than on the FLA coast north of FLL, so your comparison doesnt hold water. If this storm hit the NYC area as it is hitting the FL coast now, we would have millions of outages. Sandy's winds were sustained to hurricane force, with gusts to low 90s, maybe mid-90s on the jersey shore. They are getting winds gusting over 100, recorded. So yea, this storm would have decimated our power grid. 

Moreover, there is severe flooding further north. This storm will cause hundreds of millions in damage by the time it scoots east. 

I also want to add that Miami-Dade County was never under a hurricane warning, and Palm Beach County was never forecasted to be leveled. The worst was always to be further north, so your friends weren't paying attention. Imagine the storm wobbled west of track and the coast wasnt prepared? How many would have died? Remember Sandy when everyone said they werent warned? Calling this a bust is not only foolish, but dangerous.

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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

8 million without power during sandy. I have freinds down in Palm beach county that were terrified to the point of crippling fear by the hype. They woke up with power to a sunny day and a couple Palm fronds down. 

Other then the coast north of Juno, for the highest population areas this was definitely a bust

Sandy was a much different beast than this was. Sandy and Matthew had about the same 940mb pressure near landfall but Sandy's power was spread out over 800-1000 miles, while Matthew is confined to a relatively small area, but in that area is much more powerful than Sandy was in any one place. Sandy made landfall 100 miles south of NYC, but the wind and surge impacts were just as bad there. Sandy also devastated the largest metro area in the country, which happens to be one of the most surge-vulnerable on the entire eastern seaboard. 

Matthew would have been much more devastating with a track 50 miles or so west of what verified. The media was correct to hype it up. I just hope the next time (and in south FL there will definitely be a next time fairly soon), people aren't complacent and decide to stay when they should leave.

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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

First, the power grid down there is much more equipped for these winds than up here. Second, there is much higher concentration of people in the NYC metro than on the FLA coast north of FLL, so your comparison doesnt hold water. If this storm hit the NYC area as it is hitting the FL coast now, we would have millions of outages. Sandy's winds were sustained to hurricane force, with gusts to low 90s, maybe mid-90s on the jersey shore. They are getting winds gusting over 100, recorded. So yea, this storm would have decimated our power grid. 

Moreover, there is severe flooding further north. This storm will cause hundreds of millions in damage by the time it scoots east. 

I also want to add that Miami-Dade County was never under a hurricane warning, and Palm Beach County was never forecasted to be leveled. The worst was always to be further north, so your friends weren't paying attention. Imagine the storm wobbled west of track and the coast wasnt prepared? How many would have died? Remember Sandy when everyone said they werent warned? Calling this a bust is not only foolish, but dangerous.

The media and NHC were right to hype the storm up. The hype probably saved lives. Imagine if they didn't hype up the potential and called for a miss to the east, but then were faced with a cat 4 storm jogging west of where anticipated and slamming into Ft Lauderdale or West Palm Beach on its way up I-95 to Jacksonville? That would have cost an untold number of lives, and damage would be in the many billions. FL is also overdue for a devastating cat 4 or 5 impact somewhere on its east coast, most likely the stretch from Miami to West Palm Beach. 

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