Down The Rabbit Hole

The area to the SW has filled in. Also, classic radar presentation if I’ve ever seen one

What's the chance we get a "Storm Surge Emergency" out of this, especially if Calcasieu/Lake Charles catches the eastern EW? Or would they just include that in a standard Flash Flood Emergency?

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298297845695610882?s=20

Mets correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand it's a handful of things: the speed of the trough in the Great Plains, the GFS showing a TX/LA landing, and the desire not to cause panic that leads to a Rita-level traffic jam (and subsequent deaths) by showing a Category 3+ through the heart of Houston, especially when there's still such uncertainty. It's a tough forecast in more than one way.

A Freeport landfall headed NNW would be... not ideal

Seems like Dorian maxed out its KE potential, and with the overall wind field expanding after the ERC, it would be impossible to have more air moving as quickly as before with the same amount of energy available to it. That would explain weakening far better than relatively limited upwelling in warm, shallow waters. Perhaps I'm wrong on this, though.

I think a lot of people get confused when they don't see cars getting thrown all over the place like they expect. Difference being that in the past 30 years, automotive design has developed much better aerodynamics.

We have travel insurance so the financial impact is limited. I’m driving, so I don’t have to deal with the airlines either. Really hoping this takes a sharp right turn and hits the Big Bend (weakened to a TS, of course)

Supposed to be in Seaside on Thursday. How many days does it usually take to call off the evacuation?

Reminding me a bunch of Ike so far, especially this last bit of unexpected restrengthening

Nice thing is that we might learn more about ERCs from Irma than any previous storm, just because of how well it has been covered by modern radar through the process.

Miami Beach is on a barrier island. I clearly mentioned that surge will be a big problem out there. I'm not sure why my comment struck such a nerve with you. I was merely pointing out that the data and science tends toward surge being less of a problem in Miami than in other coastal areas. I was surprised to learn that myself, but there it is. You can see it yourself here: http://frances-a.cs.fiu.edu/gic/

I agree flooding will be a concern, but it will be of a storm drain backing up variety, not the wall of water variety normally associated with storm surge. The big danger will come from being trapped with rising water while sustained winds are around 120 mph, and no chance of rescue for at least 12-18 hours. Edit - wanted to add that storm surge will be an enormous problem south of Miami proper.

If you look at the regional SLOSH models, you'll see that surge isn't the primary concern for mainland Miami and suburbs. The nearby continental shelf and deepwater give the water pushed around by Irma somewhere to go. The biggest concern for surge will be on the barrier islands and along the Miami River. This will primarily be a wind event for Miami proper. The Georgia/SC Lowcountry is much more vulnerable to the water pushed around by a 3-day Cat 5 storm.

There are a good number of places in Houston where the floodwaters didn't have too devastating an effect. We need economic activity to continue where it can, otherwise those recovery operations are hamstrung by the lack of supplies.