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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles)

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M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles)

 

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5 minutes ago, Morris said:

Winds weaker at the surface on this pass. Only supporting cat 3, but just a drop above the surface it's almost cat 5.

Keep in mind this fix was thru the weakest part of the eyewall, so it isn't really a good indication of the storms max potential winds attm.

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It's still certainly on track for east central/north east Florida, in my eyes, as well as the NHC's.

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Winds weaker at the surface on this pass. Only supporting cat 3, but just a drop above the surface it's almost cat 5.

Notice that was the SSE quadrant. The reflectivity is weak there. Notice how intense the signature is in the NE and N however? I suspect higher winds are mixing down in the northern semicircle. It's been 1-1/2 hr since they punch the NE quadrant.

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12 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Oh, but this is clearly an ERC...many signals point to that. The 2nd wind maxima is clear on recon obs, the radar moat and the sinking air around the inner eyewall shown earlier in sat imagery are clear as the day. Right now the outer eyewall is visibly shrinking as shown on radar, and the inner eyewall is giving the good fight.

Anything is possible, but my argument is if you look at the wind speed/direction at 200mb to 700mb on the 12z GFS, there has clearly been some light pockets of wind shear from the southwest to west as the trough out west amplifies. This coupled with the storm nearing the CONUS and a slightly drier airmass, may have halted the strengthening we saw last night. The spiraled bands on IR and visible satellite/inhibited outflow on the west side, had the look of a storm undergoing some minor shear or dry air issues. I have seen many healthy canes undergo ERC's and their overall look on IR didn't change other than the eyewall itself and perhaps a slight warming of the CDO. 

 

That said, it's negligent as things are improving quickly on satellite tonight. Outflow is much better and the CDO is taking off again. Wouldn't be shocked to see another intensification period over the next 12 hours.

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Long time lurker. I have noticed that there is a lot of extrapolating from current headings as if Matthew's current trajectory won't be influenced an hour, two, three, or 8 hours from now by the same atmospheric patterns that are steering it now. We've gone from cone-watching to micro-adjustments and making predictions off of the micro-adjustments. I thought that was a no-no in these threads. I've heard very little on the overall patterns guiding Matthew today.  

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1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

Long time lurker. I have noticed that there is a lot of extrapolating from current headings as if Matthew's current trajectory won't be influenced an hour, two, three, or 8 hours from now by the same atmospheric patterns that are steering it now. We've gone from cone-watching to micro-adjustments and making predictions off of the micro-adjustments. I thought that was a no-no in these threads. I've heard very little on the overall patterns guiding Matthew today.  

The signal to noise ratio of the discussion here as gone off the charts. Too many people chiming in who have no idea what they are talking about.

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6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Anything is possible, but my argument is if you look at the wind speed/direction at 200mb to 700mb on the 12z GFS, there has clearly been some light pockets of wind shear from the southwest to west as the trough out west amplifies. This coupled with the storm nearing the CONUS and a slightly drier airmass, may have halted the strengthening we saw last night. The spiraled bands on IR and visible satellite/inhibited outflow on the west side, had the look of a storm undergoing some minor shear or dry air issues. I have seen many healthy canes undergo ERC's and their overall look on IR didn't change other than the eyewall itself and perhaps a slight warming of the CDO. 

 

That said, it's negligent as things are improving quickly on satellite tonight. Outflow is much better and the CDO is taking off again. Wouldn't be shocked to see another intensification period over the next 12 hours.

I agree with that. I commented a couple of pages ago that the shear has been gradually increasing. It's still not at unfavorable levels, though.

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1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said:

There's actually a ton of lightning in inner eyewall right now. What does this suggest?

Anything. It's been hashed over many times that lightning in an eye wall can mean basically anything...but basing off of current obs/radar, appears to mean it's strengthening.

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Just a note on motion and path; From experience, the actual motion and direction of tropical systems can be quite deceiving.

The rotation of the system can create illusion and also the distortion caused by the projection of the map that is being used can be very deceiving. What you think is north may not be actual north and could in fact be a curved line due to the map projection.

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Outer eye wall looks to be catching the inner eye wall as the inner eye wall tightens up. Looks like they are merging. Lots of lightning around the COC, many factors point to a strengthening storm.
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8 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Just a note on motion and path; From experience, the actual motion and direction of tropical systems can be quite deceiving.

The rotation of the system can create illusion and also the distortion caused by the projection of the map that is being used can be very deceiving. What you think is north may not be actual north and could in fact be a curved line due to the map projection.

Especially with concentric eyewalls.  The inner eye is going to wobble within the outer eye causing the appearance of a change in movement.

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8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Gusts to about 70mph there as of 2100 UTC (5pm EDT).

 

I wonder if it's gone offline though - no updates and it's supposed to be every 10min.

You get 10 min intervals, but I think the data dumps once an hour.

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5 minutes ago, Mello said:

Especially with concentric eyewalls.  The inner eye is going to wobble within the outer eye causing the appearance of a change in movement.

 

Right. Thanks, thats even more to the point with this system. It looks like it even might miss a direct hit on Freeport with a wobble just now. Wow!

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