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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX
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1 minute ago, Snowman99 said:

If we AL learn something from all of this...it's always listen to LEK when it comes to hurricanes re strengthening.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk
 

LOL...Stop!  ...but thanks...

I say it has about 12 more hours of deepening...give or take 4 hours...then he should stabilize.

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Im very familiar with Nassau. Most of the large resorts and beach hotels are on the North side..and almost all of those are EAST of the airport which is located along the north shore very near to the west end of the island. Lucky track for most of them actually. Im sure the smaller settlements on the southwest end will get pounded, but that isnt where the high dollar real estate is.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Do you know what you are saying right now?

Yes I agree Coastal... I was going to comment but did not want to say something stupid.  However, JOSH put himself where he thought was the best place.. He is still going to experience some really intense winds probably upwards in the CAT 2 region with some CAT 3 gusts.... I do not consider that a career defining miss! 

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3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yes I agree Coastal... I was going to comment but did not want to say something stupid.  However, JOSH put himself where he thought was the best place.. He is still going to experience some really intense winds probably upwards in the CAT 2 region with some CAT 3 gusts.... I do not consider that a career defining miss! 

FWIW, word I'm hearing from Nassau (where my wife has business connections) is Cat 1 conditions.  Eyewall missed west.  It's splitting b/w Andros and New Providence.  Folks are kissing the ground as we speak.

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2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

My hunch is that Andros is interfering ever so slightly with the western eyewall.  I'm interested to see what happens when the storm clears Andros and crosses the GS, with its deep(er) warm water.

Pretty sure that water is close to 30C down to 100m already. Negligible difference in all likelihood.

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4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

My hunch is that Andros is interfering ever so slightly with the western eyewall.  I'm interested to see what happens when the storm clears Andros and crosses the GS, with its deep(er) warm water.

Many models (whatever you want to takeaway from them) have been showing the storm strengthening more significantly when it got past Andros.

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Just now, Hoth said:

Pretty sure that water is close to 30C down to 100m already. Negligible difference in all likelihood.

Sure, in the tongue of the ocean, but there's a lot of shelf water over the carbonate platform around there.  IIRC, there's some work that shows that even at equal temps, hurricanes do better over deeper warm water, though the rationale for that isn't clear to me (it doesn't feel like you'd have upwelling issues when you have no thermocline)

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I see no way at this point it does not landfall in FL.  At the same time though I think FLL and obviously MIA are safe.  I'm not even sure FLL will even see 60-65 mph winds, nevermind 74 or more.

It's very possible the eyewall could just scrape, maybe be halfway onshore, or ever so slightly stay just east by a few miles. 10 miles will mean everything and that is easily a wobble N or W. Tough to say.  

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