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September Obs/Disco Thread


H2O

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2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like the GFS wants to give us 1-2" Sunday night. Man.. that would be nice.

 yeah, but that's in scattered maxima, not area-wide.    The good news is that the PW values will likely approach 2", so any cells could dump a ton of water.   What I don't like is that it looks like cells may move from SW to NE along an axis that only slowly sinks southeast.    Several models right now show that areas northwest of DC would be favored, and that's consistent with the WPC excessive rainfall map that was posted by losetoa6.

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3 hours ago, high risk said:

 yeah, but that's in scattered maxima, not area-wide.    The good news is that the PW values will likely approach 2", so any cells could dump a ton of water.   What I don't like is that it looks like cells may move from SW to NE along an axis that only slowly sinks southeast.    Several models right now show that areas northwest of DC would be favored, and that's consistent with the WPC excessive rainfall map that was posted by losetoa6.

So I might need to put the AC on for the humidity mainly?

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Overnight ensembles of the EPS/GEFS continue to show above normal temps through the next 10 days. It's going to be quite warm and somewhat humid at times with +5-10C anomalies.

The good news is that both EPS and GEFS are on board with a significant fall-like pattern change around October 1st. I think the change to cooler weather has credibility as it has been consistent on the models for several runs.

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39 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

Overnight ensembles of the EPS/GEFS continue to show above normal temps through the next 10 days. It's going to be quite warm and somewhat humid at times with +5-10C anomalies.

The good news is that both EPS and GEFS are on board with a significant fall-like pattern change around October 1st. I think the change to cooler weather has credibility as it has been consistent on the models for several runs.

Agreed, looks like may even get a Davis Straights block to develop at the end of the month.   Seasonal changes on the horizon. I imagine that some of this is in reaction to the re-curving typhoon in the West Pac as well.      

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1 hour ago, Round Hill WX said:

Overnight ensembles of the EPS/GEFS continue to show above normal temps through the next 10 days. It's going to be quite warm and somewhat humid at times with +5-10C anomalies.

The good news is that both EPS and GEFS are on board with a significant fall-like pattern change around October 1st. I think the change to cooler weather has credibility as it has been consistent on the models for several runs.

It's  now obvious that september is a summer month.

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34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest qpf map from wpc looks just like the 12z Euro and slams 95 and east especially. 

Seems like some link up to the tropical moisture from Julia getting pulled in.  We could all use the rain . The WPC map has the plume of QFP hooking right into our area and then into Northern Delaware and SE PA.  

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