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Ian

Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2

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About to go out for a check and another round of shoveling. That sounds about right though. Think we got lucky with this dry air thing to the south of us

Yeah - very lucky maybe. Holding my breath - if can stay snowing should clear two feet.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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There is a large slug of moisture coming off the coast of DE headed right for DC/Balt. I think DC will do okay. Depends on how long we stay under it. I'd be perfectly fine with 24". Being snowed in gets old anyway.  :shiver:

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We have a very real possibility of hitting 40" out here with that band sweeping in slowly...

 

I agree. if anyone is going to break 40" it will be those folks along I-81 between Winchester and HGR into just south of the mason dixon line. Jesus.

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This is a good storm for I-95, but it seems the best action is north and west. It's a major storm for here, but its not 1996 historical. Snow up to about my knees. Historical is up to my waist. Do we get there at I-95? That seems to be the big question. HRRR says yes. I have my doubts.

 

In my mind, this storm is going to have to dump on 95 for 8-10 hours or else it won't end up in the class of 96, 2003, or at least the first Feb of 2010. It will end up with 2009, the second Feb 2010, 2000, and maybe the 1983 storm. It just isn't hitting DC or Bmore hard enough. Could it still? Maybe. But it keeps advertising big snows on 95 and it still isn't happening. Time is running out. It was so close to a biblical storm. Just got the big snows too far NW. BWI might not even crack top 10.

 

Also disheartening that our area was given 30-36 inches by a lot of the models and now it looks like NYC and Philly are going to end with bigger amounts, quite possibly but a substantial amount.

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Basically nothing since 5am. I'm so distraught it's making me sick. Keep here wait for the pivot, wait for this, wait for that but it's not filling in.

Yeah. Watching the sun try breaking through the clouds while 20 miles west gets crushed is no fun.

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Long-term radar doesn't show the dry slot filling in. The fact that some people are relying on one model showing unrealistic totals shows desperation (though understandably so). DCA, at least, isn't getting more than 5" additional inches out of this storm. The show is all along the Appalachians.

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We have a very real possibility of hitting 40" out here with that band sweeping in slowly...

You really think it's possible? How much do you have?

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Long-term radar doesn't show the dry slot filling in. The fact that some people are relying on one model showing unrealistic totals shows desperation (though understandably so). DCA isn't getting more than 5" additional inches out of this storm. The show is all along the Appalachians.

Dafuq...

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Long-term radar doesn't show the dry slot filling in. The fact that some people are relying on one model showing unrealistic totals shows desperation (though understandably so). DCA isn't getting more than 5" additional inches out of this storm. The show is all along the Appalachians.

 

 

Huh? Just loop the radar. It has clearly filled in a good amount.

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Highest totals I've seen:

 

... City of Winchester... (VA)
   Winchester 30.0 1146 am 1/23 public

 

... Berkeley County... (WV)

   1 SW Jones Springs 33.0 1130 am 1/23 trained spotter 

 

Some places to the NW of the immediate DC metro are gonna blow past 40".  Easily.

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12:30, 27, -SN, 14.5"

 

I found a fair amount of 15.5"s here and there on the level.  But it was counterbalanced by plenty of 14"s....Going with 14.5"...Not running around my hood again. I think my initial measuring spot is fine...

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12:30, 27, -SN, 14.5"

 

I found a fair amount of 15.5"s here and there on the level.  But it was counterbalanced by plenty of 14"s....Going with 14.5"...Not running around my hood again. I think my initial measuring spot is fine...

 

I'm getting close to 20" now. That's an impressive difference. I wonder what DCA will report.

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Do we have any posters just west of Hagerstown? It looks like they are getting blasted.

 

I live there, but I'm stuck at work in Germantown and roommate doesn't have a Yard stick. The picture she sent me is insane though. At least 2' as of 90 min ago and dumping.

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Can we wait for the storm to finish before discussing how good it was?

lol, I have 30" and it's still snowing heavily. it's an awesome storm.

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Long-term radar doesn't show the dry slot filling in. The fact that some people are relying on one model showing unrealistic totals shows desperation (though understandably so). DCA, at least, isn't getting more than 5" additional inches out of this storm. The show is all along the Appalachians.

I disagree. I'm bullish on DC getting another 4-8" or so. I think it's very possible once the ull gets closer. I think we snow until sunset at least

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Per radar DC metro now getting in on the action... expect 1"/hr rates for the next several hours through at least 7-10 pm before it tapers.

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