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Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted

I'm leaning toward the RGEM...GFS shuts down the fronto pretty quickly, but I am of the opinion that the models in general have been doing that too quickly...they were doing it to NYC 24 hours ago. I don't expect 20" off to the east, but I also don't expect SW CT to get buried while Newport, RI chokes on dry air...that doesn't make much sense to me unless you have a big high or big confluence to the northeast such as PDI (Feb 1979) or something like Jan 27-28, 2004.

Many thanks

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Canadian was a big flag IMO to the band. Might even get to 84 in good shape. But yeah...I know there will be dry air...but it's tough to see UUU choking on exhaust with west of them in good snows. HRRR whether it's right or not..makes sense. Maybe a big initial pulse. Then, you get a weakening before a second surge of WAA moves in..something like that.

 

Yeah the band initially comes in...strongest SW CT, but still decent south coast to the east, and then weakens as it heads inland...then I could see a mini-weenie band oriented more SW to NE later in the game as we get into that CCB remnant over E MA and RI...it's not overly strong, but there's some 500-700 fronto in there.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty comfy going w a sw ct jackpot.

12"+ seems like no brainer down by Stamford

 

They'll get hit hard there.

 

All the pike-region folk are probably gonna be choking on arctic sand that takes 5 hours to accumulate an inch. But I'll be interested to see just how far north some of these dynamics make it.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

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They'll get hit hard there.

All the pike-region folk are probably gonna be choking on arctic sand that takes 5 hours to accumulate an inch. But I'll be interested to see just how far north some of these dynamics make it.

I am probably getting a hotel on the cape of wareham tomorrow pm. But i honestly do not think wareham will get a 1/3 of what SW Jacks. Lift looks weak there after the sun goes down.

That double barrel low just pushed further ENE on most models and now is just a disaster and a waste when prior it was a nice H7 track tucked in closer to se mass. I guess we will see what becomes of that vort in now cast

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

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I see a multitude of surprises occurring over the next 24-36 hrs!  Looks to me like sleet is making its way into DC and after that there's not much precip left to speak of! I'm super confused with this one thats for sure.  IDK, DC just doesn't look like its gonna get what some are projecting but I can be way off but we'll see!

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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I see a multitude of surprises occurring over the next 24-36 hrs! Looks to me like sleet is making its way into DC and after that there's not much precip left to speak of! I'm super confused with this one thats for sure. IDK, DC just doesn't look like its gonna get what some are projecting but I can be way off but we'll see!

they will comma head
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