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Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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Morch Madness

Morch Madness

Posted
Posted

Now.....that is derobe worthy.

 

Of course its overdone, but these meso models sweeping inexorably north means something.....messenger would have been all over this.

 

They are picking up on the models dampening the dynamics out too quickly.

 

It's been trending north every run too. I'm not making any promises, but NWS offices out in PA have had to scramble to up snow totals, and man oh man are there some intense dynamics with this storm.

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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted

Now.....that is derobe worthy.

 

Of course its overdone, but these meso models sweeping inexorably north means something.....messenger would have been all over this.

 

They are picking up on the models dampening the dynamics out too quickly.

As you or ORH said.....NE is the Belicheck/Brady of winter storms.....

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

Now.....that is derobe worthy.

 

Of course its overdone, but these meso models sweeping inexorably north means something.....messenger would have been all over this.

 

They are picking up on the models dampening the dynamics out too quickly.

 

It's not just dynamics that are sustained longer later tomorrow... look at current obs, this storm is clearly tracking further north than progged... sleet in MD further north, snow shield in central PA is further north than progged

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

It's not just dynamics that are sustained longer later tomorrow... look at current obs, this storm is clearly tracking further north than progged... sleet in MD further north, snow shield in central PA is further north than progged

DT was supposed to get over a foot, and 4" of snow/sleet.

 

Dry slot is impinging on DC...thought that CNY dude was $hithouse, but looked again.

 

Hmmm..

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Interesting excerpt from State College, PA AFD:

 

 


QPF FROM 00Z RUNS CONTINUES A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND. NAM AND SREFS
NOT LETTING GO AND SEEM TO HAVE MORE MERIT THAN SOME FORECASTERS
WERE GIVING THEM PRIOR TO THE STORM. A CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH WOULD
HAVE INCLUDED THESE MODELS/MEMBERS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE THE BEST
FCST - AS IT MOST TIMES IS. A SLIGHT MOVE WAS MADE TO THIS END
OVER THE LAST 24-30 HRS OF THE FORECAST. BUT MORE CREEDENCE NOW
GIVEN TO THEIR SOLUTIONS OF QPF WITH HRRR AND RUC SUPPORTING NEXT
SEVERAL HRS. SLR/S WORKING OFF THE GFS TEMP PROFILE IN THE SRN
COS NOW LOOK TO BE 15-20:1 IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS TO COME THIS
MORNING. 12-15:1 STILL LOOK OK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

CHANGES TO SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MOST AREAS HAVING ANOTHER 20-30PCT
ADDED ON TO THEM. SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED LAST
NIGHT...AND AMOUNTS IN ALREADY ARE WELL OVER THE FORECAST CURVE IN
MANY PLACES. HOISTING WARNING WHERE CURRENT ADVYS EXIST FROM STATE
COLLEGE EASTWARD. WILL HOLD THE ADVY IN CLEARFIELD/NRN CENTRE AND
ADD A STRIPE FOR SRN LYC AND CLINTON AS A BUFFER BETWEEN LOTS AND
NIL.
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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted

Interesting excerpt from State College, PA AFD:

 

 

QPF FROM 00Z RUNS CONTINUES A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND. NAM AND SREFS

NOT LETTING GO AND SEEM TO HAVE MORE MERIT THAN SOME FORECASTERS

WERE GIVING THEM PRIOR TO THE STORM. A CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH WOULD

HAVE INCLUDED THESE MODELS/MEMBERS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE THE BESTFCST - AS IT MOST TIMES IS. A SLIGHT MOVE WAS MADE TO THIS END

OVER THE LAST 24-30 HRS OF THE FORECAST. BUT MORE CREEDENCE NOW

GIVEN TO THEIR SOLUTIONS OF QPF WITH HRRR AND RUC SUPPORTING NEXT

SEVERAL HRS. SLR/S WORKING OFF THE GFS TEMP PROFILE IN THE SRN

COS NOW LOOK TO BE 15-20:1 IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS TO COME THIS

MORNING. 12-15:1 STILL LOOK OK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

CHANGES TO SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MOST AREAS HAVING ANOTHER 20-30PCT

ADDED ON TO THEM. SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED LAST

NIGHT...AND AMOUNTS IN ALREADY ARE WELL OVER THE FORECAST CURVE IN

MANY PLACES. HOISTING WARNING WHERE CURRENT ADVYS EXIST FROM STATE

COLLEGE EASTWARD. WILL HOLD THE ADVY IN CLEARFIELD/NRN CENTRE AND

ADD A STRIPE FOR SRN LYC AND CLINTON AS A BUFFER BETWEEN LOTS ANDNIL.

Oh snap!!!!!!

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

DT was supposed to get over a foot, and 4" of snow/sleet.

 

Dry slot is impinging on DC...thought that CNY dude was $hithouse, but looked again.

 

Hmmm..

 

Yeah really exciting night. We love this stuff, even if chances it impacts our back yard are not great.

And I posted that I was "liberated" after the disappointing Euro run Thursday night lol

 

NAM and other mesos blew this up

 

That's what I was asking Will earlier... what are we following in this nowcast? This isn't the simple 3-hr pressure falls or vorticity is a little east or ridge is a little better. This is a really dynamic situation... things like latent heat release and poleward motion that you're not gonna easily see on spc mesoanalysis.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

 

Interesting excerpt from State College, PA AFD:

 

 

QPF FROM 00Z RUNS CONTINUES A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND. NAM AND SREFS

NOT LETTING GO AND SEEM TO HAVE MORE MERIT THAN SOME FORECASTERS

WERE GIVING THEM PRIOR TO THE STORM. A CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH WOULD

HAVE INCLUDED THESE MODELS/MEMBERS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE THE BEST

FCST - AS IT MOST TIMES IS. A SLIGHT MOVE WAS MADE TO THIS END

OVER THE LAST 24-30 HRS OF THE FORECAST. BUT MORE CREEDENCE NOW

GIVEN TO THEIR SOLUTIONS OF QPF WITH HRRR AND RUC SUPPORTING NEXT

SEVERAL HRS. SLR/S WORKING OFF THE GFS TEMP PROFILE IN THE SRN

COS NOW LOOK TO BE 15-20:1 IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS TO COME THIS

MORNING. 12-15:1 STILL LOOK OK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

CHANGES TO SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MOST AREAS HAVING ANOTHER 20-30PCT

ADDED ON TO THEM. SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED LAST

NIGHT...AND AMOUNTS IN ALREADY ARE WELL OVER THE FORECAST CURVE IN

MANY PLACES. HOISTING WARNING WHERE CURRENT ADVYS EXIST FROM STATE

COLLEGE EASTWARD. WILL HOLD THE ADVY IN CLEARFIELD/NRN CENTRE AND

ADD A STRIPE FOR SRN LYC AND CLINTON AS A BUFFER BETWEEN LOTS AND

NIL.

 

 

Nice find, yeah the central PA positive busts was what I was referring to earlier... Definitely further north than progged at least on globals

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