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Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

They'll get hit hard there.

 

All the pike-region folk are probably gonna be choking on arctic sand that takes 5 hours to accumulate an inch. But I'll be interested to see just how far north some of these dynamics make it.

 

Yeah will be a great nowcast setup for next 12-18 hours.

 

Simply extrapolating the changes of the past 12 hours (esp to NYC / S CT) to the next 12 hours... Pike region would be knocking on warning criteria. Wouldn't that be convenient.

 

I think at least one variable in our favor is time. The faster this system gets here, we might get a taste of the better WAA and frontogenesis.

 

Another is globals just underestimating the divergence as you posted.

 

Another is handling of the bobbling lows... some of the best runs reinvigorated the easternmost SLP late and we get a respectable CCB.

 

And this all changed so quickly before go time... in some cases forecasts for south CT / NYC have added a foot or more to what the 0z and 12z Euro runs were showing today.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah will be a great nowcast setup for next 12-18 hours.

 

Simply extrapolating the changes of the past 12 hours (esp to NYC / S CT) to the next 12 hours... Pike region would be knocking on warning criteria. Wouldn't that be convenient.

 

I think at least one variable in our favor is time. The faster this system gets here, we might get a taste of the better WAA and frontogenesis.

 

Another is globals just underestimating the divergence as you posted.

 

Another is handling of the bobbling lows... some of the best runs reinvigorated the easternmost SLP late and we get a respectable CCB.

 

And this all changed so quickly before go time... in some cases forecasts for south CT / NYC have added a foot or more to what the 0z and 12z Euro runs were showing today.

 

It's going to be exciting to watch...at least until we realize we're too far north when the musical chairs stop, lol.

 

It has to run out of gas at some point, and our latitude is probably too much. But hopefully we can pull off a few inches...I just don't want to get shut out or get an inch of sand over 6 hours. Both are still possibilities.

 

 

We'll know in the next 6-8 hours probably.

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ryanjn

ryanjn

Posted
Posted

post-6270-0-13864100-1453527132_thumb.jp

My new mapski. I think Se MA will have snow pretty much the entire duration with some good meso bands from SW to NE on the last third of the event that will bump their totals a bit higher than just west of there. Initially W CT gets in on the action, which all the models seem to have a maximum there, and perhaps a few hours of dry air in the middle of SNE from 0z-4z maybe. Wind gusts on the right. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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snow 1 23 16 2.jpg

My new mapski. I think Se MA will have snow pretty much the entire duration with some good meso bands from SW to NE on the last third of the event that will bump their totals a bit higher than just west of there. Initially W CT gets in on the action, which all the models seem to have a maximum there, and perhaps a few hours of dry air in the middle of SNE from 0z-4z maybe. Wind gusts on the right.

wow I would love that
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ryanjn

ryanjn

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Posted

As stated before, storm seems to be a tad sooner than schedule, I think that'll allow extreme SNE to get that 8-14in. Jackpot in SNE between New Bed and Plymouth IF it isn't too warm and snow isn't super wet the whole time.4km NAM has sfc T above freezing on the Cape but there will be enough cold air just above the sfc to keep it snow. 

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