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Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Jealous!

 

I can't wait to see how this on evolves. I'm guessing we've got a bunch of surprises to come. 

 

From a physics and thermodynamics standpoint, I have conflicting feelings...

 

The dry air drain is going to get strong as the storm approaches...so I'm worried about arctic sand with 2 mile vis under 30 dbz on the northern periphery.....but on the other hand, I am worried that the models are just simply playing catchup with the very intense divergence aloft, they keep translating northeastward in time...once beyond 12-18 hours, the models keep breaking up the band and we all say "well of course, the arctic drain is going to shred it to pieces", but that is assuming that the model is right with weakening the intense divergence aloft that is causing the obscene banding in the first place...and I can't help think that the models are erroneously doing this too quickly which is why once an area is <18 hours out, they keep seeing a more dynamic solution.

 

We know there is going to be an arctic sand line somewhere, but I'm wonderin gif it further north than we think and that really intense 500-700 fronto doesn't allow the band to weaken as much as models think beyond 12h.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

From a physics and thermodynamics standpoint, I have conflicting feelings...

 

The dry air drain is going to get strong as the storm approaches...so I'm worried about arctic sand with 2 mile vis under 30 dbz on the northern periphery.....but on the other hand, I am worried that the models are just simply playing catchup with the very intense divergence aloft, they keep translating northeastward in time...once beyond 12-18 hours, the models keep breaking up the band and we all say "well of course, the arctic drain is going to shred it to pieces", but that is assuming that the model is right with weakening the intense divergence aloft that is causing the obscene banding in the first place...and I can't help think that the models are erroneously doing this too quickly which is why once an area is <18 hours out, they keep seeing a more dynamic solution.

 

We know there is going to be an arctic sand line somewhere, but I'm wonderin gif it further north than we think and that really intense 500-700 fronto doesn't allow the band to weaken as much as models think beyond 12h.

I wouldn't sleep on this from the NH border points south.

 

Expect nothing, but be prepared for everything.

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

Posted
Posted

From a physics and thermodynamics standpoint, I have conflicting feelings...

 

The dry air drain is going to get strong as the storm approaches...so I'm worried about arctic sand with 2 mile vis under 30 dbz on the northern periphery.....but on the other hand, I am worried that the models are just simply playing catchup with the very intense divergence aloft, they keep translating northeastward in time...once beyond 12-18 hours, the models keep breaking up the band and we all say "well of course, the arctic drain is going to shred it to pieces", but that is assuming that the model is right with weakening the intense divergence aloft that is causing the obscene banding in the first place...and I can't help think that the models are erroneously doing this too quickly which is why once an area is <18 hours out, they keep seeing a more dynamic solution.

 

We know there is going to be an arctic sand line somewhere, but I'm wonderin gif it further north than we think and that really intense 500-700 fronto doesn't allow the band to weaken as much as models think beyond 12h.

i just got pants tent

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

From a physics and thermodynamics standpoint, I have conflicting feelings...

 

The dry air drain is going to get strong as the storm approaches...so I'm worried about arctic sand with 2 mile vis under 30 dbz on the northern periphery.....but on the other hand, I am worried that the models are just simply playing catchup with the very intense divergence aloft, they keep translating northeastward in time...once beyond 12-18 hours, the models keep breaking up the band and we all say "well of course, the arctic drain is going to shred it to pieces", but that is assuming that the model is right with weakening the intense divergence aloft that is causing the obscene banding in the first place...and I can't help think that the models are erroneously doing this too quickly which is why once an area is <18 hours out, they keep seeing a more dynamic solution.

 

We know there is going to be an arctic sand line somewhere, but I'm wonderin gif it further north than we think and that really intense 500-700 fronto doesn't allow the band to weaken as much as models think beyond 12h.

 

 

I think we all share those...I know I do. My red flag was always the splitting and deformation shown on models...but the dry air is more than I remember in some situations like this...and sometimes that is underestimated...so it's a tough call.  However, I would be lying if I said that Boston will be fine with lighter snows. I also think s shore may get a good ocean effect contribution too. Like I said earlier...this is almost a nowcast deal.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The other issue arguing the band further north, is as this occludes...you lose the good push of WAA like they will have into the mid atlantic and NYC. So that goes to the shredding of the band too. You really want the good WAA push into the area, and not just a TROWAL slowing moving NE and getting eaten alive.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

The other issue arguing the band further north, is as this occludes...you lose the good push of WAA like they will have into the mid atlantic and NYC. So that goes to the shredding of the band too. You really want the good WAA push into the area, and not just a TROWAL slowing moving NE and getting eaten alive.

 

Yeah we're going to see a lot of the advective processes just shut off.

 

There's going to be some monster frontogenesis though near Long Island - I guess my concern is that we see areas just north of that get totally hosed with exhaust from what turns into an LIE super band. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Yeah Ray, I am really encouraged by the satellite presentation. That convection is absolutely ripping north off the coast. Expectations have been 0" for days, so any snow is a positive bust.

My forecast here is nothing to an inch or two...but there is a higher just potential here than average is all I mean.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Already snowing in parts of NYC by 1030 pm.

Well ahead of schedule

If this waa push is stronger than modeled i think lower hudson valley and w ct could score nicely

Late tonight

Im not bullish on ema but nothing with this storm would totally shock me, like seeing it push north into S Delaware by morning and see areas like Scranton Pa over perform

We could use that new mid level low developing about 75 miles Wnw of where nam has it

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