Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[40/70 Benchmark]

Leading edge of S+ Just through Allentown, PA and entering NYC.

[wxsniss]

What to watch is continued look on radar and HRRR trends and meso analysis. That will dictate trends. As myself and others said yesterday, s coast under the gun and we need to watch this up to pike area.

 

You know what I mean... variables other than just waiting for next model run or watching radar... what to monitor in terms of the mechanics of why this would bust either way

 

Looks like 6z NAM continues ticking north, 0.5 qpf to your back yard, Cape Cod legit gets into the comma head of the low right at the benchmark 24-27 hours

[40/70 Benchmark]

You know what I mean... variables other than just waiting for next model run or watching radar... what to monitor in terms of the mechanics of why this would bust either way

 

Looks like 6z NAM continues ticking north, 0.5 qpf to your back yard, Cape Cod legit gets into the comma head of the low right at the benchmark 24-27 hours

Ironic...all we have heard about is how large of a circulation this major, bad a$$ blizzard has, yet it is ging to cross the BM and supposedly drop jack $hit throughout most of sne?

Ok....

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Nice find, yeah the central PA positive busts was what I was referring to earlier... Definitely further north than progged at least on globals

It's nearly reaching WNY, alright not quite to KBUF but closing in on KELM along the Southern Tier, lol, and we know no model had that progged.

[CoastalWx]

You know what I mean... variables other than just waiting for next model run or watching radar... what to monitor in terms of the mechanics of why this would bust either way

Looks like 6z NAM continues ticking north, 0.5 qpf to your back yard, Cape Cod legit gets into the comma head of the low right at the benchmark 24-27 hours

Well the mesoanalysis will help show frontogenesis. I don't think pressure falls or anything like that will help unless it's a huge change from what we expect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gravity wave just east of DC:

 

 

[BrianW]

First flakes here.

 

[bristolri_wx]

Updated NWS map..

[Damage In Tolland]

Let's get warnings up to the Pike folks.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Let's get warnings up to the Pike folks.

HRRR may be headed that way, RGEM took a big step back.

[CT Valley Snowman]

GFS with the slightest tick north. .5 contour up into northern CT just south of here.

[medmax]

My dads in York, PA and reporting heavy snow.

[medmax]

He's reporting 10+ inches, thunder snow, and sent photos. Very impressive for this early in the storm.

[tavwtby]

ALY, BOX, And Upton keep upping the totals for all us north, but, watch the radar returns and you can see the "brick wall" as heavy returns getting eroded as they push north. I've been under virga for the last 3 hours and only strong winds. Anyone have buoy data? Where are the pressure drops, and is the slp going ENE or NE? Thanks on my phone can't see that data.

[tavwtby]

GFS with the slightest tick north. .5 contour up into northern CT just south of here.

ALY upped my probable from 1 to 5, and my max from 11 to 24 in 24 hours...impressive the dynamics of this storm

[medmax]

What happens if this verifies?

[medmax]

[powderfreak]

He's reporting 10+ inches, thunder snow, and sent photos. Very impressive for this early in the storm.

 

Post photos in the obs thread.  Awesome.

 

Going to be a fun 18 hours...

 

This is the RAP...look at this with 2-3" of QPF in NYC Metro and LI/PA/NJ over the next 18 hours.

 

[JC-CT]

The mesos are hinting that it's gonna get pretty shredded past maybe central ct.

[powderfreak]

The associated RAP snowfall map for the next 18 hours:

 

[BrianW]

Updated NWS map..

image.png

 

OKX

 

[powderfreak]

Just looking through the Nowcast models, the RAP and HRRR have a nice OES contribution look right along the immediate coast for the BOS folks.

 

Look at the narrow small meso-scale bands right on the Mass coastline...those are probably the wildcards for that area.  They look narrow but I'm sure mean business if you get under a finger band.

 

 

 

[medmax]

GFS and NAM @ 18 hrs:

[Damage In Tolland]

NYC is ground zero 2-3 feet

[Professional Lurker]

I love how everything has trended north but GC is still shut out. Off to drive to the mountain in a 50 year old car to ski. ...if I see a flake, I'm out. Enjoy your storm.

[powderfreak]

Haven't heard much from the RGEM lately... 6z is interesting.

 

[JC-CT]

Haven't heard much from the RGEM lately... 6z is interesting.

RGEM.png

I saw it. It's still a possibility but it has had no continuity.

[powderfreak]

I love how everything has trended north but GC is still shut out. Off to drive to the mountain in a 50 year old car to ski. ...if I see a flake, I'm out. Enjoy your storm.

 

It is a little (just a little) easier when you know you have absolutely no shot.  So its not like dangling a carrot in front of you the whole time. 

 

This is the new Western New England climate for the past 4 years or so . 

[Damage In Tolland]

So Freak..I think I like your call from 90 south of 4-8..I think J-CT area gets 10+

[HoarfrostHubb]

Tantalizingly close

Cweat is chucking em somewhere