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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


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WSW up from Charleston

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV427 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT STORMFRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WVZ038>040-046-047-201730-/O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0001.160122T1200Z-160124T0600Z/WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEBSTER SPRINGS...BUCKHANNON...PHILIPPI...BELINGTON...MARLINTON...ELKINS427 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATESATURDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATESATURDAY NIGHT.* HAZARD...HEAVY SNOW. MAY MIX WITH SLEET FRIDAY. BLOWING AND  DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS EXPOSED HIGH TERRAIN.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN A FOOT.* TIMING...DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING.* MAIN IMPACT...ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE.
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This makes sense and I agree but if this is a perfect full gambit, then what is?

96 and 10 etc. I'm not saying it's not possible but it's always very unlikely no matter what models are spitting out qpf wise.

This storm has a lot going for it. Just gotta hope both the waa and CCB parts maximize right over our yards.

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Someone hacked mitch's account...

My take on the 30"+ question is that it almost never happens for a reason. Especially the corridor. Maximizing big storms requires the full gambit of perfection. A large 30"+ distribution is most likely a low probability event

There could be localized areas that exceed that amount but they will be small. Keep in mind that when deform banding is happening there is subsidence around the bands. The entire atmosphere can't be lifted at once. It has ripples. There are winners and losers with max totals who are relatively close together. My guess is a HoCo/MoCo death band attm. Lol

Well I've always been someone who prefers 2 12" storms instead of 1 24". AA County is the absolute worst when it comes to snow removal. Get that fixed and maybe my opinion changes.
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One thing I remember from the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm is how mashed potato wet the first several inches of that snow was, and led to numerous tree branches and power lines down.  It was like a Leyland cypress slaughter!  Hopefully we have better temps this time and avoid power outages.

 

I still see rain/snow in the point forecast for southern MD -- hoping we can get rid of that. 

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Well I've always been someone who prefers 2 12" storms instead of 1 24". AA County is the absolute worst when it comes to snow removal. Get that fixed and maybe my opinion changes.

I think you're spot on here.  For most people, and that doesn't include apartment dwellers in the city, a 30" snow is more trouble than it's worth, and in some circumstances, downright dangerous.

 

I think the insane totals will gradually pull back to something at least reasonable.

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I think you're spot on here.  For most people, and that doesn't include apartment dwellers in the city, a 30" snow is more trouble than it's worth, and in some circumstances, downright dangerous.

 

I think the insane totals will gradually pull back to something at least reasonable.

With better sampling I expect either.. a pullback as you say, or for insanity to happen. If we see model after model of same or an increase then I would think that the insane numbers are more possible. I remember in PD2 I kept seeing increases on each model run. At some point it may have pulled back. I remember at work telling people it was going to be something special. Feb 2010 was similar.. models would not waver on amounts.

 

Edit: POSSIBLE FOR SOME - not an area wide crazy! What Bob said seems more likely!

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Well I've always been someone who prefers 2 12" storms instead of 1 24". AA County is the absolute worst when it comes to snow removal. Get that fixed and maybe my opinion changes.

 

I'd rather have 1 24" storm.  In 2010, my neighborhood didn't see a snow plow for several days due to the back to back storms and the fact we're 3rd class citizens since my house is in a cul-de-sac.

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I'd rather have 1 24" storm.  In 2010, my neighborhood didn't see a snow plow for several days due to the back to back storms and the fact we're 3rd class citizens since my house is in a cul-de-sac.

I start to get nervous when I think of 2 to three inches of liquid sitting on my roof! Especially the less sloped areas. I am creating a makeshift roof rake to push snow off these areas. I am a worry wart when it comes to this, but in 2010 several neighbors had sizable leaking from the snow on their bump out areas. 

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I'd wager that over the next 48 we see this thing slowly trickle north. Past cases would lead me to think that way.

I'd also think the high qpf totals come down.

No disrespect winterwxluvr, but I definitely disagree. Might trickle north some but to expect a Qpf reduction I feel would be a bit more based on what you're hoping for than what happens.
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I start to get nervous when I think of 2 to three inches of liquid sitting on my roof! Especially the less sloped areas. I am creating a makeshift roof rake to push snow off these areas. I am a worry wart when it comes to this, but in 2010 several neighbors had sizable leaking from the snow on their bump out areas. 

 

This is true, but we had two storms worth of snow on the roof which was a good bit more snow than we're slated to get this week.

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I start to get nervous when I think of 2 to three inches of liquid sitting on my roof! Especially the less sloped areas. I am creating a makeshift roof rake to push snow off these areas. I am a worry wart when it comes to this, but in 2010 several neighbors had sizable leaking from the snow on their bump out areas.

Apologies in advance for the banter in the model thread, but this is where the wind could help (limiting the load on roof).

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