Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canderson, you had me worried for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 57 already precip totals around 1.75-2 in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yep, PIT suffers most in this run. LSV actually does better. Up here we're still right on the border, but the gradient is even sharper, so it's hard to tell if it's "better" or "worse" verbatim. Just north of UNV definitely does worse. It's also better for Wilkes Barre, I think. have you ever seen a gradient like the NAM is showing verify? I know back in '09-'10 there were some extreme gradients, but what the NAM is showing for this storm is hard to fathom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM moves low along coast up close to DelMarVa at hr 48 then has several centers of circulation at the surface through hr 60 which DT harped on as being dumb yesterday and I am sure will point this out again in the MA forum today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm good with NAM. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yep, PIT suffers most in this run. LSV actually does better. Up here we're still right on the border, but the gradient is even sharper, so it's hard to tell if it's "better" or "worse" verbatim. Just north of UNV definitely does worse. It's also better for Wilkes Barre, I think. The nw part of allegheny county gets an inch on the NAM..SE part gets 18 inches. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 have you ever seen a gradient like the NAM is showing verify? I know back in '09-'10 there were some extreme gradients, but what the NAM is showing for this storm is hard to fathom. Yea it has, its definitely a possibility in these situations where low slides east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 is that NAM from 2011? hr 45-54 has some good banding across southern pa He's listening to a radio show from 2011. I love you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So it's the NAM and the SREFs vs. the world. Unfortunately, we're stuck with the bad models in our camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yea, The Harrisburg region doesn't look bad, no reason to jump off the GWB.. Taking donations for Canderson....................he needs glasses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 He's listening to a radio show from 2011. He's listening to a radio show from 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Still don't like those warm waters lurking...definitely may see some sleet, but will deal with it if banding is as good as progged. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just dont see how the confluence can crush the northern edge like this... this isnt lake effect streamers were dealing with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Still don't like those warm waters lurking...definitely may see some sleet, but will deal with it if banding is as good as progged. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Sometimes you have to smell the rain/sleet to get the heavy snow. I mixed in the blizzard of 96 and still got 2' on the dot. System will be juiced and mixing won't last all that long in all honesty. Not too much to worry about. 18" of wind swept snow is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I am liking that we are going back to a WAA and CCB for snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just dont see how the confluence can crush the northern edge like this... this isnt lake effect streamers were dealing with... Is the drop off in snow amounts roughly east of the Susquehanna due to sleet mixing in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just dont see how the confluence can crush the northern edge like this... this isnt lake effect streamers were dealing with... The Nam is still the furthest north with that heavy of precip, correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Saw a post somewhere about this, but I can't find it now. Anyway, it's quite concerning to me that the Hi-Res NAM still refuses to get that banding anywhere near as far north as the operational does. Maybe we're just too far out for the Hi-Res, maybe it performs poorly at this range. Hopefully that's all it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The Nam is still the furthest north with that heavy of precip, correct From what I saw last evening...yep. just an observation (with all of the models btw). I expect a little more "feathering" of the NW quadrant qpf tonight. Maybe not enough to make em happy...but I'd think to CPA I80 a few inches will fall. JMO Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'd bet that we get a 1 color shift north today...then a tick back tomorrow. My guess is this is where we will be w/ this storm. Still hope you northern/western folk can grab onto this thing and pull it north some. So close to so much potential for all of us. ITs been a long time since CTP has been in the bullseye. Maybe next one. Nut I hope so too. I am in Armstrong County and there is a HUGE difference within 25 miles of my south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Saw a post somewhere about this, but I can't find it now. Anyway, it's quite concerning to me that the Hi-Res NAM still refuses to get that banding anywhere near as far north as the operational does. Maybe we're just too far out for the Hi-Res, maybe it performs poorly at this range. Hopefully that's all it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canderson....I have openings for an eye exam for you for next week! You've been cracking me up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yikes at 4k nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm at work (which is like a prison), where we at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canderson....I have openings for an eye exam for you for next week! You've been cracking me up!! Ha, it's not so much vision (I am legally blind, actually) as much as not paying attention to details. The radio show, I blame my iPhone for auto playing an old show without my knowledge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canderson....I have openings for an eye exam for you for next week! You've been cracking me up!! I think he stole a lot of my booze supply for this storm...now what am I going to do to keep Atomix's prediction from verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The radio show hosts dont time stamp themselves by giving a date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah, I'm not sure what NAM you're talking about. The 12z actually looks better south of the turnpike than the 06z did. The cutoff up here is even sharper, though. because people take one look at a 12 hour qpf map and see part of the precip in 30 miles south and go OMG its south. Look at H5 and SLP first, get an idea whats really going on, WAIT for it to actually play out, then see if the qpf looks right because its usually the most finicky and least accurate thing for the models to predict. A 20 mile shift in qpf from one run to the next on a particular frame is just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 because people take one look at a 12 hour qpf map and see part of the precip in 30 miles south and go OMG its south. Look at H5 and SLP first, get an idea whats really going on, WAIT for it to actually play out, then see if the qpf looks right because its usually the most finicky and least accurate thing for the models to predict. A 20 mile shift in qpf from one run to the next on a particular frame is just noise. In this case, it was because he was looking at the output from yesterday's model at the wrong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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