Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Uh oh, it's CTP vs Horst: Hence my concern for sleet. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Another day, another 50 mile shift. Oh the life of a Central (and northern) PAer... WPC 5 day total QPF. I miss Philadelphia more and more every winter. Who would have ever thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 9z SREF's still north for what it is worth: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_072_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160121+09+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'd bet that we get a 1 color shift north today...then a tick back tomorrow. My guess is this is where we will be w/ this storm. Still hope you northern/western folk can grab onto this thing and pull it north some. So close to so much potential for all of us. ITs been a long time since CTP has been in the bullseye. Maybe next one. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 9z SREF's still north for what it is worth: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_072_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160121+09+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area has best qpf north of me.....and i'd be fine w/ that. if this verifys...many to the south of BWI will be looking for bridges It's all about us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I wasn't allowed to post the image, but Horst says it's likely the big cities change to sleet. Don't tell them down south that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CTP is very bullish. Unusual for them, hope they're right! Based on their forecast discussion, they seem to give equal weights to the 12km NAM/SREF/CMC group and the GFS/Euro group. I would tend to lean more towards the later group up here at least. It's also a bit of a red flag that the 4 km NAM (near the end of its range at 54-60hrs) shows precipitation not making it into Centre County as the surface low moves off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Maybe next one. Nut I've been hearing and thinking that for six years now. I was really hoping this would be our next one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Uh oh, it's CTP vs Horst:I understand how it could happen but still ive never seen a storm where the nw edge of heavy precip has mixing issues while south of them gets crushed with snow. That's just odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is unfortunately looking south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I understand how it could happen but still ive never seen a storm where the nw edge of heavy precip has mixing issues while south of them gets crushed with snow. That's just odd. I definitely could see mixing, but only if the axis of the CCB is west of you. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow srefs are way way north. They do kinda suck though. But I guess it's better to see them trend north then south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is unfortunately looking south... Please don't say that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Today is the today hope to find some sort of consensus now that the hi-res shorter range models are in their range. The last 2 days have been a roller coaster ride for MDT on north. If you believe the 0z EURO and even now the 6z GFS outside of extreme Southern PA this is a 6" or less snowstorm. DC, VA fairly easy forecast, there has been no real change regardless of model output. Up here, NYC what a tough forecast! I was also wondering what the short range models was bringing to the table today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 6z 33hr NAM to me looks similar to 12z 27hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 50-100 miles southeast...precip shield is also significantly south as well. Awful way to start the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 50-100 miles southeast...precip shield is also significantly south as well. Awful way to start the day... That run is sure not being kind to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 9z SREF's still north for what it is worth: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_072_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160121+09+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area also showing higher chance for some sleet to mix in than it has been showing for LSV hence the lower snow output... wish we could trust the SREF lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yep. Looking like all we got left up here are the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM is a disaster north of the PA/MD border. Edit: Was looking at earlier panel, not the full as I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM is a disaster north of the PA/MD border. I mean, it's a touch worse than the 06z out to 48. But not a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM is a disaster north of the PA/MD border. Yeah, I'm not sure what NAM you're talking about. The 12z actually looks better south of the turnpike than the 06z did. The cutoff up here is even sharper, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks ok. I was expecting to see nothing north of border. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I mean, it's a touch worse than the 06z out to 48. But not a whole lot.Depends where you are at. Out my way it is pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM is a disaster north of the PA/MD border. Are you looking at the same NAM I am? (12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah, I'm not sure what NAM you're talking about. The 12z actually looks better south of the turnpike than the 06z did. The cutoff up here is even sharper, though. I must've been looking at the older panel and thinking it was later, because it had no precip north of the border (I thought) at 48. I'm happy to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM is a disaster north of the PA/MD border. is that NAM from 2011? hr 45-54 has some good banding across southern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Honestly have no clue what the panick is for MDT on south per the NAM. A big hit at 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Are you looking at the same NAM I am? (12z) He's listening to a radio show from 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Depends where you are at. Out my way it is pretty awful. Yep, PIT suffers most in this run. LSV actually does better. Up here we're still right on the border, but the gradient is even sharper, so it's hard to tell if it's "better" or "worse" verbatim. Just north of UNV definitely does worse. It's also better for Wilkes Barre, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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