Jmister Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you all want, I can make a nice map of everyone's location. Just send me your screenname,latitude,longitude eg: jmister,40.79,-77.86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's what we came up with. I kind of disagree with the mix line being so far West, but Im not gonna go against someone who's has been doing this since before I was born. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Warnings out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When it comes to systems and the influence on the STJ, models have a hard time grasping the full scope of the moisture flux that is provided with a setup such as this. A perfect example was the Feb storm in 2014 when models were calling for 10-16" for parts of CMD and southern PA and it ended up higher by 20-40% in SPA and up to 20" in MD due to the wall of moisture that was coming in. My dad is a weather junkie and the reason I'm a meteorologist. He is a winter weather weenie just like most of us and has had so much experience with these storms in his lifetime. I remember I made a bet with him on the snow that would fall at our house just north of Baltimore. I went with model consensus and he went with 16-22". I thought he was nuts. Well, 19" later, I owed him lunch haha He told me through his lifetime, no one ever predicts these southern systems right in terms of precip. They under do it all the time. That's why the QPF shield always ends up a little further to the north and areas in the bulls eye get slammed time and time again with "shocking" totals. That being said, for the northern fringe of things, the confluence to the north is going to kill chances most likely north of I80 getting anything other than light snow and to the north in NYS, they'll get the smoking cirrus. I was gonna make a map, but I think I'll just post my thoughts here. I feel like the southern tier south of Rt 30 will still walk with a foot with the typical spots for jackpots at 16-22" (ie. Mapgirl, 83 Blizzard, Cashtown and anyone else south of that line). Mapgirl and PSU could very well get 20-24" wen all said and done. Areas between Rt 30 and the turnpike to the east of 81, I can see 8-14" with the higher end towards the south. To the west of 81 in that same zone, I see 5-10" as the max due to the proximity away from the low. Above the turnpike to I80 is the rough spot.2-8" with again the further to the south. Clearfield region I can see getting 1-3" when all said and done, but the axis of qpf will be running wsw across the state, so areas like Pittsburgh could get shut out. This is just a call off the top of my head. The synoptic setup for this storm is incredible with the H5 depiction and LLJ structures that will play a huge role in banding and unexpected surprises. Systems this large and dynamic will put up some crazy numbers. I don't follow QPF maxes for my forecast, but more of the QPF placement. Are models and QPF/Snow maps fun to look? You're damn right they are, but a forecaster does not get driven by model run after model run. They look at the bigger picture and examine the different components to see what's lining up and what has been most consistent. The meso details are spared for later on during the storm, so for now, just sit back and watch the Meso Analysis and satellite/radar combo and watch how Mother Nature puts on a show. Great writeup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you all want, I can make a nice map of everyone's location. Just send me your screenname,latitude,longitude eg: jmister,40.79,-77.86 Cool, thanks! canderson: 40.27, -76.88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here comes the NAM....@ 18 it is juiced down to our southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CTP clumps everyone Harrisburg south into one warning for 6"-16" north to south. Safe play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR HEAVY...DOUBLE-DIGITSNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES ALONG THE TURNPIKE TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. HAVE REWORDED THE WSW TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 12+ INCHES OVER THIS AREA...WITH MAX AMOUNTS IN THE 15 TO 20 INCH RANGE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR POSSIBLE BLIZZARD AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS INVOF LANCASTER COUNTY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING COULD COMPOUND HEAVY SNOW IMPACTS -- MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. SNOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEAST PA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This 100% I don't care if DC gets 3 feet of snow as long as I can get 12" or so. Anyway, yesterday someone asked about making maps. That was me who was doing them last year, so here is one for the 12z NAM from today. This is the model I'd like to see come close to verifying...lol Untitled-1.jpg Thank you for this map. Even though I am in the Pgh forum, I lurk here and do appreciate when you do these and include all the counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Your description gives me the ideas you have MDT around 5" median. I can see that. I live about 5 miles due north of the turnpike (as the crow flies), every time I hear "south of the turnpike will do well" I want to punch things lol. i wouldn't be that excited. i believe we'll see more then 5" jmister, i sent mine via pm. would you prefer it here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you all want, I can make a nice map of everyone's location. Just send me your screenname,latitude,longitude eg: jmister,40.79,-77.86 Cashtown_Coop 39.86844 -77.35800 Thanks for doing this ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z NAM is looking a touch NW of the 12z by hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The ECMWF ENS are coming in a good 20-30 miles south of the 00z I don't know why some mets are so bullish down here. I had a 10-14" MAX for LNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ok one last argument why this could trend north for southern 1/2 of PA. First I dont think the track will trend north much. SLP will track over eastern NC, but I do think the low could/should make it a little north of where some models turn it east...maybe getting it up towards the southern tip of the delmarva. But if you look at the NAM, its low location isnt much off from the other guidance it just has a much more expansive qpf field. SInce january 1996 is the number 1 analog on the threat guidance right now I pulled up the track. Yes it got all the way to Boston because the low kept going north up until ocean city MD then northeast. I dont think that happens this time...but for PA look at this precip map from the 1996 storm and the low location. That low location at that point is right where this one is going to be with an almost identicle H5 position at that time also. THe NAM is the only model showing a similar qpf distribution though. WHat I am saying is its not unfounded that without much change in the track heavy snow could get further into PA then the models are showing (except the nam). Thoughts? CurrSur-2200Z-07Jan96.jpg The lows look pretty much the same. With the Nam maybe a touch north & hanging coast tighter.Awesome post Millville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 i wouldn't be that excited. i believe we'll see more then 5" As do I. I butchered my thought process. My apologies. I'll have a map drawn up and ready for everyone at some point tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you all want, I can make a nice map of everyone's location. Just send me your screenname,latitude,longitude eg: jmister,40.79,-77.86 Mallow,40.78,-77.85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The ECMWF ENS are coming in a good 20-30 miles south of the 00z I don't know why some mets are so bullish down here. I had a 10-14" MAX Ensembles are not a tool to use at this type of lead time. They are great for >72 hrs. After that, they lose sight of some of the intricate details that go in a developing storm system. Best to use meso models and any trends in the H5 depiction of the globals. That's the important stuff for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you all want, I can make a nice map of everyone's location. Just send me your screenname,latitude,longitude eg: jmister,40.79,-77.86 Laurel Highlands Wx : 40.3°N 78.4°W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That has been out there even before 1:00. Even though the discussion time was updated. Sauss06 Latitude 40.291115 Longitude -76.933563 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ensembles are not a tool to use at this type of lead time. They are great for >72 hrs. After that, they lose sight of some of the intricate details that go in a developing storm system. Best to use meso models and any trends in the H5 depiction of the globals. That's the important stuff for now. I agree. Still a pain to see another southward shift on a major piece of guidance. I do love how the UCAR-MPAS model, NMM, ARW, RGEM, Para SREFS, and NAM look for here. I think this one completely comes down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm about as far south as you can go in Lycoming county if u picture that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I edited mine 40.6558° N, 78.7794° W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you all want, I can make a nice map of everyone's location. Just send me your screenname,latitude,longitude eg: jmister,40.79,-77.86 i sent you a pm as well but here's mine 41.023071, -78.411544 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z NAM looking like it's a slight improvement over the 12z NAM, especially from State College to Wilkes Barre. Pittsburgh may actually be worse this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you all want, I can make a nice map of everyone's location. Just send me your screenname,latitude,longitude eg: jmister,40.79,-77.86 DJ88 Elysburg, PA 40.867825, -76.551713 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro ens are skewed by about 13 extreme south outliers. The rest are tightly clustered just off va beach at 48 hours while the other group are 100 miles or more southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is what we have so far: And zoomed out a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is looking good for a good portion of the state through 54 hours. Basically 12"+ cutting a diagonal northeast from Greene County to Wayne County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pawatch 41.2614313, -77.05287199999998 Garden View, pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Awesome! Great job!!! Here is what we have so far: amwx_cpa.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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