Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The HRRR is the only model that really looks good with the current precip placement, and it has the precip shield significantly further north and west by 07z tomorrow morning than any of the major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z Euro has the main precip shield right now south of Shreveport. In reality, it's mostly north of Shreveport. I think it's almost radar-watching time. If we can get more precip than modeled up to Paducah by tomorrow morning, we might still have a shot. yea not sure if it means much and it could just be grasping for straws or not sure how reliable the spc mesoanalysis stuff is for all products but this is oriented more to the north than what both NAM/GFS/etc had at 18z for today from what I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Btw, not sure it means anything, but NAM sim radar looks pretty close to reality right now....if that means anything. Yeah, it's the second best behind the HRRR right now. And a much better match than the Hi-Res NAM's simulated radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z Euro has the main precip shield right now south of Shreveport. In reality, it's mostly north of Shreveport. I think it's almost radar-watching time. If we can get more precip than modeled up to Paducah by tomorrow morning, we might still have a shot. OK i know this is a total weenie comment but arent models generally underdone with juiced up STJ systems coming out of the gulf? I just seem to remember so many where the precip trended north in the last 24 hours. I can't really remember too many that trended south at this point. I kind of expect as this thing really starts to get going later today that starting tonight models trend back north a bit. They can only go so far, the H5 is cutting off too far south and at some point it will reach a point where it runs out of its upper support, become stacked, triple point, and start to slide east. We just need that to be 50 miles north perhaps. Its also possible that even with a track about where it is now the precip shield is more expansive then the euro/ggem have it. I could see this ending up a little north of where the GFS has it, maybe almost to the NAM...but probably not much more then that. WHats your take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Superstorm upthread posted he saw at the MU weather center and it took heavy snow all the way to State College. rpm this far out is like using the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 OK i know this is a total weenie comment but arent models generally underdone with juiced up STJ systems coming out of the gulf? I just seem to remember so many where the precip trended north in the last 24 hours. I can't really remember too many that trended south at this point. I kind of expect as this thing really starts to get going later today that starting tonight models trend back north a bit. They can only go so far, the H5 is cutting off too far south and at some point it will reach a point where it runs out of its upper support, become stacked, triple point, and start to slide east. We just need that to be 50 miles north perhaps. Its also possible that even with a track about where it is now the precip shield is more expansive then the euro/ggem have it. I could see this ending up a little north of where the GFS has it, maybe almost to the NAM...but probably not much more then that. WHats your take? I dunno, I'm learning every day, myself. RAP also looks better now, and further north/west later, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 rpm this far out is like using the DGEX I know nothing about that model, just relaying what Superstorm said. Isn't the RPM the model of choice for most TV stations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Side note from the storm, this week as been running cooler than expected. My highs this week have been 19f, 23f, 26f, and today it's currently 29f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 500-hPa ridge out ahead of the storm is definitely more amplified on the RAP by 12z tomorrow. The surface low is further northwest of pretty much any model. And the trough beginning to form along the Carolina coast is still significantly weaker on the RAP. All good signs, I think. EDIT: However, the trends in the RAP at the latter parts of the run seem to generally be the opposite direction, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RPM and RAP FOR THE WIN! Everyone south of I-80 a foot plus if snow, and south of turnpike 2 feet. We all win lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Side note from the storm, this week as been running cooler than expected. My highs this week have been 19f, 23f, 26f, and today it's currently 29f. I said this yesterday that i thought we had not reached our progged highs in a couple days. Its hard to believe how hard my ground is, considering how warm December was ya know?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 500-hPa ridge out ahead of the storm is definitely more amplified on the RAP by 12z tomorrow. The surface low is further northwest of pretty much any model. All good signs, I think. Thanks so much for you updates! Do you work in the weather field currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Side note from the storm, this week as been running cooler than expected. My highs this week have been 19f, 23f, 26f, and today it's currently 29f. More suppression.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 More suppression.... Better ratios ⛄️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thanks so much for you updates! Do you work in the weather field currently? I'm a grad student. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think that the new SREFs being even further NW with precip is a good sign... ...that the SREFs are still garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think that the new SREFs being even further NW with precip is a good sign... serfsup.png ...that the SREFs are still garbage. I look at the SREF's this way, when they are bad its a bad sign, when they are good...at least its not a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm a grad student. Ah, cool. Good luck with the classes - I can't fathom the difficulty of a met degree given all the science and physics and all behind it. This is why I'm a journalist/communications/designer, no math! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Crazy difference between the short range models and the globals... can't remember that big of a discrepancy at this time frame before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have a question, and I'm not sure how we could go about this. I don't know where some of you guys are in relation to the state. I know State College, for instance, but not specifically where you are Voyager or 2001 (I know Tamaqua and Clearfield, but not WHERE they are really), when looking at a map. Would it be possible for someone to create a map and pinpoint posters' locations? Is that even doable? my location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ok one last argument why this could trend north for southern 1/2 of PA. First I dont think the track will trend north much. SLP will track over eastern NC, but I do think the low could/should make it a little north of where some models turn it east...maybe getting it up towards the southern tip of the delmarva. But if you look at the NAM, its low location isnt much off from the other guidance it just has a much more expansive qpf field. SInce january 1996 is the number 1 analog on the threat guidance right now I pulled up the track. Yes it got all the way to Boston because the low kept going north up until ocean city MD then northeast. I dont think that happens this time...but for PA look at this precip map from the 1996 storm and the low location. That low location at that point is right where this one is going to be with an almost identicle H5 position at that time also. THe NAM is the only model showing a similar qpf distribution though. WHat I am saying is its not unfounded that without much change in the track heavy snow could get further into PA then the models are showing (except the nam). Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RPM and RAP FOR THE WIN! Everyone south of I-80 a foot plus if snow, and south of turnpike 2 feet. We all win lol! This 100% I don't care if DC gets 3 feet of snow as long as I can get 12" or so. Anyway, yesterday someone asked about making maps. That was me who was doing them last year, so here is one for the 12z NAM from today. This is the model I'd like to see come close to verifying...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CTP updated their text forecast at 1:22, here is the relevant section. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...*HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGHSATURDAY NIGHT...*POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 12+ INCHES POSSIBLEALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE...CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES: ADDED 5 COUNTIES TO THEWINTER STORM WATCH FROM CAMBRIA TO JUNIATA.WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGHMOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TOSTRENGTHEN RATHER MARKEDLY AS ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERNROCKIES DIPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY LIFTSNORTHWARD REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE INITIALSURFACE LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY FRIDAYWILL GIVE WAY TO DEEPENING COASTAL LOW/MAJOR EAST COAST WINTERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.THE MAIN DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH THE 21/0000Z GUIDANCE STILLREVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THEPRECIP SHIELD ON THE NW-SIDE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE NAM/SREF/CMCARE GENERALLY MORE ROBUST AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE EDGEOF THE MOISTURE REACHING THE NEW YORK BORDER. MEANWHILE THEGFS/ECMWF/GEFS ONLY GO TO ABOUT THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH A SHARPNORTHERN GRADIENT TO I-80. COLLECTIVELY THE 00Z MODELS SEEMED TOTREND A JUST TAD NORTHWARD WITH THE QPF WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN THEWPC WINTER WEATHER SNOWFALL GUIDANCE. THIS TREND ALONG WITHSUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS THE REASON FOR EXPANDING THEWATCH TO COVER CAMBRIA TO JUNIATA COUNTIES.CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR HEAVY...DOUBLE-DIGITSNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES ALONG THETURNPIKE TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. HAVE REWORDED THE WSW TO INDICATETHE POTENTIAL FOR 12+ INCHES OVER THIS AREA...WITH MAX AMOUNTS INTHE 15 TO 20 INCH RANGE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR POSSIBLEBLIZZARD AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS INVOF LANCASTER COUNTY WITH PEAKWIND GUSTS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. SIGNIFICANTBLOWING AND DRIFTING COULD COMPOUND HEAVY SNOW IMPACTS -- MAKINGTRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHTOF THE STORM. SNOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEAST PA INTO SATURDAY NIGHTBEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 OK i know this is a total weenie comment but arent models generally underdone with juiced up STJ systems coming out of the gulf? I just seem to remember so many where the precip trended north in the last 24 hours. I can't really remember too many that trended south at this point. I kind of expect as this thing really starts to get going later today that starting tonight models trend back north a bit. They can only go so far, the H5 is cutting off too far south and at some point it will reach a point where it runs out of its upper support, become stacked, triple point, and start to slide east. We just need that to be 50 miles north perhaps. Its also possible that even with a track about where it is now the precip shield is more expansive then the euro/ggem have it. I could see this ending up a little north of where the GFS has it, maybe almost to the NAM...but probably not much more then that. WHats your take? When it comes to systems and the influence on the STJ, models have a hard time grasping the full scope of the moisture flux that is provided with a setup such as this. A perfect example was the Feb storm in 2014 when models were calling for 10-16" for parts of CMD and southern PA and it ended up higher by 20-40% in SPA and up to 20" in MD due to the wall of moisture that was coming in. My dad is a weather junkie and the reason I'm a meteorologist. He is a winter weather weenie just like most of us and has had so much experience with these storms in his lifetime. I remember I made a bet with him on the snow that would fall at our house just north of Baltimore. I went with model consensus and he went with 16-22". I thought he was nuts. Well, 19" later, I owed him lunch haha He told me through his lifetime, no one ever predicts these southern systems right in terms of precip. They under do it all the time. That's why the QPF shield always ends up a little further to the north and areas in the bulls eye get slammed time and time again with "shocking" totals. That being said, for the northern fringe of things, the confluence to the north is going to kill chances most likely north of I80 getting anything other than light snow and to the north in NYS, they'll get the smoking cirrus. I was gonna make a map, but I think I'll just post my thoughts here. I feel like the southern tier south of Rt 30 will still walk with a foot with the typical spots for jackpots at 16-22" (ie. Mapgirl, 83 Blizzard, Cashtown and anyone else south of that line). Mapgirl and PSU could very well get 20-24" wen all said and done. Areas between Rt 30 and the turnpike to the east of 81, I can see 8-14" with the higher end towards the south. To the west of 81 in that same zone, I see 5-10" as the max due to the proximity away from the low. Above the turnpike to I80 is the rough spot.2-8" with again the further to the south. Clearfield region I can see getting 1-3" when all said and done, but the axis of qpf will be running wsw across the state, so areas like Pittsburgh could get shut out. This is just a call off the top of my head. The synoptic setup for this storm is incredible with the H5 depiction and LLJ structures that will play a huge role in banding and unexpected surprises. Systems this large and dynamic will put up some crazy numbers. I don't follow QPF maxes for my forecast, but more of the QPF placement. Are models and QPF/Snow maps fun to look? You're damn right they are, but a forecaster does not get driven by model run after model run. They look at the bigger picture and examine the different components to see what's lining up and what has been most consistent. The meso details are spared for later on during the storm, so for now, just sit back and watch the Meso Analysis and satellite/radar combo and watch how Mother Nature puts on a show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canderson, here is where Tamaqua is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 my location Here is mine : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I really need to make a snow map. I think I under did some areas of my "forecast" since I was just trying to go off the top of my head since I'm still at work (And will be for days haha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I really need to make a snow map. I think I under did some areas of my "forecast" since I was just trying to go off the top of my head since I'm still at work (And will be for days haha). Your description gives me the ideas you have MDT around 5" median. I can see that. I live about 5 miles due north of the turnpike (as the crow flies), every time I hear "south of the turnpike will do well" I want to punch things lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Your description gives me the ideas you have MDT around 5" median. I can see that. I live about 5 miles due north of the turnpike (as the crow flies), every time I hear "south of the turnpike will do well" I want to punch things lol. It could very well be more, in fact, I may have low balled you guys. I'm definitely making a map this evening. I'm exhausted from this week of tracking AND work. Brutal. And I work this weekend too, so I'll be hunkered down in front of my setup watching everything and living at the office. Fortunately, my work has me and few of my coworkers in a hotel right near the office complex, so I can sleep well after Saturday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CTP updated their text forecast at 1:22, here is the relevant section. That has been out there even before 1:00. Even though the discussion time was updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.