NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't know if I can make it for the 0z EURO either as I have 7am work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nice trends so far tonight. Hard to believe we still have almost 48 hours to go! (And as a long time lurker thanks to all who contribute!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Btw atomix, it DOES snow in Bellwood lol. Ended up with a surprise 1.5" of pure fluff this evening. Here's hoping for 10x that on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fluff here in State College, as well, but it looks like 0.25" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Light steady snow here in Marysville (just a few miles north of Harrisburg). There is a Light dusting on cars & roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 0z GFS = 15 inches at MDT 0z Canadian = 20 inches at MDT I'm fired up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 0z GFS = 15 inches at MDT 0z Canadian = 20 inches at MDT I'm fired up!!! and don't forget the Nam :-) insane amounts and the Ukie came back north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Btw atomix, it DOES snow in Bellwood lol. Ended up with a surprise 1.5" of pure fluff this evening. Here's hoping for 10x that on Saturday. image.jpeg These clippers have been nice surprises. I have the same amount as you for tonight. Also had 6,3,4 for the other events recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Got this from over in the Mid-Atl thread.. looks like the 0z GEFS ensemble is a bit better than it had been the last couple runs, having several members getting snow back into southern PA again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 These clippers have been nice surprises. I have the same amount as you for tonight. Also had 6,3,4 for the other events recently Wow that's not too bad, had 3.5" last Tuesday and a couple inchers and half inchers before tonight, so got about 8" for the season now. Now we just need to cash in at least half decently on this actual big time system and we'll be pretty well back on track with snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow that's not too bad, had 3.5" last Tuesday and a couple inchers and half inchers before tonight, so got about 8" for the season now. Now we just need to cash in at least half decently on this actual big time system and we'll be pretty well back on track with snowfall. Before these clippers I had a dusting back in late November. So these systems helped out nicely. I'm always amazed by the downsloping effect when traveling to Altoona. So I have 11.5" for the season. What are your thoughts for our immediate area for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro low at 30 hours positioned about the same (Central MS) but deeper than 12z (1004 vs 1008) 36 hours: Same thing, low position and precip coverage similar but low is about 4mb deeper. (1000 vs 1004) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro low at 30 hours positioned about the same (Central MS) but deeper than 12z (1004 vs 1008) 36 hours: Same thing, low position and precip coverage similar but low is about 4mb deeper. (1000 vs 1004) so it's not north? This run looks like it is going to be more epic than 12z, vort is stronger, precip is more robust and its farther N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 BTW standing by my 12-16 for York and Lancaster proper, 16+ for southern 1/2 of Lancaster and York counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Through 12z Saturday, the 12z had 0.01" for State College, and the 00z already has 0.06". Hopefully that's a good sign for the rest of the run. EDIT: Not looking any better through 21z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Precip shield to the Mason Dixon at 48hr, which is a bit further north of 60hr on the 12z run. 54hr - 0.1-0.25" in the far southern tier (below turnpike central, tapering to the Mason Dixon line east) 60hr - 0.1-0.25" southern tier from roughly the turnpike down, 0.25-0.50" in the far southern LSV It's looking pretty similar to the 12z with precip placement and amounts in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ya, doesn't look like any real improvement on the Euro, at least up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 66 and 72 hours lingers precip shield in the LSV, from roughly MDT to ABE and south.. heavier snows near the Mason-Dixon. Precip pretty much out at 78hr. Yea looks similar to 12z Euro and very tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 66 and 72 hours lingers precip shield in the LSV, from roughly MDT to ABE and south.. heavier snows near the Mason-Dixon. Precip pretty much out at 78hr. Yea looks similar to 12z Euro and very tight gradient. it's a step down. Amounts greatly reduced along the Mason Dixon line. 12z got the 2" qpf half way into york county. This run it's well south of the pa line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What's the qpf for Harrisburg vs York vs Lancaster this run? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Also, does all the data the NWS collects from special launches get incorporated in the Euro, CMC, and Ukmet? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Mdt .6 Lns .9 Thv 1.4 Everything sunk south about 30 miles from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Mdt .6 Lns .9 Thv 1.4 Everything sunk south about 30 miles from 12z Thanks for the additional info, I only have a basic 850 temps/precip/mslp map to look at the Euro as it comes in until AccuPro loads the whole thing after about 2am. Tough forecast above the mason-dixon and especially above the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 40 miles it goes from 0.6 to 1.9 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At 60hrs the double barrel low. Seems to exit stage right afterwards. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ok so the mets can jump in with thoughts on this but the run looked great through 60 hours. The slp actually was tucked in nice tracking over eastern nc right over Elizabeth city. Then at 66 it's tucked in right at the mouth of the Chesapeake bay. So far perfect track to at least get the southern 1/2 of pa. Then at 66 a second low forms due east about 100 miles under a convection plume and that pulls the whole thing due east. The euro actually tracks inside the gfs and ggem to that point then slingshots east. What are the chances that's a convective feedback error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ok so the mets can jump in with thoughts on this but the run looked great through 60 hours. The slp actually was tucked in nice tracking over eastern nc right over Elizabeth city. Then at 66 it's tucked in right at the mouth of the Chesapeake bay. So far perfect track to at least get the southern 1/2 of pa. Then at 66 a second low forms due east about 100 miles under a convection plume and that pulls the whole thing due east. The euro actually tracks inside the gfs and ggem to that point then slingshots east. What are the chances that's a convective feedback error? because I know next to nothing about weather, I do know about feedback (guitar player) and connection issues (network admin). here are my thoughts: the fact that this storm was over sampled by additional launches. This increases the chances of bad data entering in the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ok so the mets can jump in with thoughts on this but the run looked great through 60 hours. The slp actually was tucked in nice tracking over eastern nc right over Elizabeth city. Then at 66 it's tucked in right at the mouth of the Chesapeake bay. So far perfect track to at least get the southern 1/2 of pa. Then at 66 a second low forms due east about 100 miles under a convection plume and that pulls the whole thing due east. The euro actually tracks inside the gfs and ggem to that point then slingshots east. What are the chances that's a convective feedback error? I'm not very keen on the nuances of convective feedback but considering how warm the Gulf Stream waters (and the Atlantic waters in general) are I could definitely consider that possibility with all the heat and moisture involved and the clash with the cold air plus the dynamic nature that this system has consistently been progged. The storm is likely destined to have surprises in different realms (i.e intense bands and localized excessive snowfall, places closer to the coast but still are otherwise expecting all snow ending up with some mixing due to the tremendous fetch being progged off the warm Atlantic, better (or worse) northern extent of the precip shield, etc. At least the good thing for the Mid-Atl region is regardless of whatever the differences/issues the models have had this week.. it hasn't mattered for specifically the DC/interior VA/MD crowd as about the only question there has been which model out snows the other during any given run. I could only imagine the state of the threads if DC was in the center of the major gradient battle haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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