heavy_wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 500 hPa low more intense, farther west, and slightly less positively-tilted than the 12z GFS depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 @ 42 it is juiced to the SW of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Precip solidly into the southern half of PA by 54hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LSV 0.25+ 57-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Blah. Precip shield contracts 60-66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Some improvement for NEPA as the deform swings back with 0.25+ at 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Strange evolution. Generally a touch better verbatim, but the overall picture looks like it should be significantly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think the ridge upstream of the closed low is a bit more amplified than 12z, allowing for the closed low to become squashed and more progressive. For us in central/northern PA, we need the system to become vertically stacked and slow down/retrograde to the NW to get into the regions of more significant forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Surface low is much further west this run, so I'm not worried about the QPF. Good trend. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Strange evolution. Generally a touch better verbatim, but the overall picture looks like it should be significantly better. I was going to ask about that. To my untrained eye it looked like the NAM solution, then the low still slid straight off the coast. Does the solution make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nice fire hose of moisture for eastern and southern PA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agree with Mallow, it's just an oddball evolution. Doesn't even hit into the NYC area all that hard either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I was going to ask about that. To my untrained eye it looked like the NAM solution, then the low still slid straight off the coast. Does the solution make sense? I think heavy_wx hit it. Still, definitely a step in the right direction. 00z Euro (and GFS ensembles!) will be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Blah. Precip shield contracts 60-66. also looking warm aloft for LSV... as in above 0 C at 850mb warm on first glance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think heavy_wx hit it. Still, definitely a step in the right direction. 00z Euro (and GFS ensembles!) will be interesting! Agreed. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 also looking warm aloft for LSV... as in above 0 C at 850mb warm on first glance...Thas a huge temp shift, no? We've never been considered about flipping prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The northern edge did improve at least the further east you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You think this had something to do with the new model runs? https://www.facebook.com/NWSSanAntonio/photos/a.207190619300188.54580.205644282788155/1107451932607381/?type=3&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You think this had something to do with the new model runs? https://www.facebook.com/NWSSanAntonio/photos/a.207190619300188.54580.205644282788155/1107451932607381/?type=3&theater My home sending us the love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canadian is so annoying. Hits the LSV hard but, as the precip expands north, the confluence just crushes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thanks! Are you gonna be in the area for this one? Probably hunkering down in the WC Saturday. I'm actually working in Germantown MD this weekend. Looks prime for destruction down there. Can't wait to not sleep and enjoy every second of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GGEM sounds impressive, and N/W. Anyone seeing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GGEM sounds impressive, and N/W. Anyone seeing it? More precip for the LSV, but 80N is about the same. The cutoff is actually sharper...confluence kills the northern extent of decent precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Checkin in, looks good for most. Should be interesting Saturday for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Dat gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Dat gradient. Gradient is better tonight than this morning. Improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gradient is better tonight than this morning. Improvements. Agreed. Mid Atlantic has that map with counties: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Long day at work tomorrow, so can't stay up for the Euro. It doesn't matter much, it's sucked this week anyway. Just hope it continues to bring the precip shield north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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