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WinterWxLuvr

January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 4

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New thread. I waited for the 18z hoopla to die down.

Really had no choice. We put up 10 pages last night from this point until morning. That might double tonight, putting us well over 50.

I thought it was important to keep the 0z models together with tomorrow's 12z data.

This is the m/l range thread, not a storm thread.

Good luck all.

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Might have just jinxed it. New thread is like shaving in the playoffs.

Honestly I thought everyone would find it easier. In times like this one day of runs can fill a thread. I figure by Tuesday someone will start a storm thread and then this one can finish out the month as the m/l thread.

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This is the thread where winter ends after the HECS now I suppose.

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This is the thread where winter ends after the HECS now I suppose.

gfs and eps like another window day 11-12 before we torch. Also the touch looks like it may be progressive.

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NCEP Operational Status Message

Mon Jan 18 03:00:44 2016 GMT
 
NOUS42 KWNO 180300
ADMNFD
 
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0259Z MON JAN 18 2016
 
THE 00Z GFS HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME.
 
00Z UPDATED RAOB RECAP...
70414/SYA - PART B IS MISSING
78016/BDA - PART B MISSING FOR NAM...IN FOR GFS
76458/MZT - 10158
76692/HYY - 10158
 
HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

 

What does the Part B part mean? Can anyone explain?

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I know no one is paying attention, but the LR GFS almost tries to do a repeat of this, it is unbelievably close to a carbon copy H5 setup, it obviously goes nuts and closes it off, but it is close lol...

 

Good.  Hopefully it is even bigger than the first.  I want to have to exit my home through the second story windows.

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gfs and eps like another window day 11-12 before we torch. Also the touch looks like it may be progressive.

Starting to see hints of the -ao/nao coming back after the relax. My total wag is the big trough in the west showing up on the ens will end up being some big cutter and then a step down right back to winter appeal. A 3-4 day warm stretch and then back to tracking if that. Seriously doubt a prolonged trough/west ridge east like Dec.

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Starting to see hints of the -ao/nao coming back after the relax. My total wag is the big trough in the west showing up on the ens will end up being some big cutter and then a step down right back to winter appeal. A 3-4 day warm stretch and then back to tracking if that. Seriously doubt a prolonged trough/west ridge east like Dec.

im looking forward to the jan 28 storm more than this one

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im looking forward to the jan 28 storm more than this one

I know you're joking, but the 6Z GFS says let's shoot for round 2 on the 27th-28th. 

 

I will accept nothing less than a February 2010 one-two punch redux ;-)

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The 6z GFS is advertising another massive hit 10 days out. If we can go back to back MECS. This winter would go from terrible to epic in a 10 day span.

 

The glee in this subforum would be incredible. It's another beautiful depiction on the model...

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What does the Part B part mean? Can anyone explain?

 

If I remember correctly, Part B were the winds at non-standard levels.  Whenever certain criteria were hit (for example, height or a shift) it would mark a wind group (direction/speed).

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Yeah GFS has it warm (second storm) at this point. Honestly...can we trust anything until the first beast is out of the way? Nope. 

Certainly looks like it could be a fun week or two. My gut says we won't do back to back storms. Second one probably ends up as slop at least that's my gut feeling for now. 

Second storm H5 low does like right over us. 

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