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January 17-18th Cape Scrape and Inverted Trough


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Not sure what your issue is tonight. The HRRR is not a great tool. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Good call on nothing tonight

I'm not thrilled by it, but it is what it is. I got a virga storm, you got a moonlit night. It happens. Ryan called it in his Web video earlier this afternoon, just not enough moisture back this way to overcome dry air.
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HRRR is useful for big picture if you understand how to use it but Kev generally doesn't look at models and in addition generally makes things up especially when things don't work out his way in a snowfall.

 

I'm currently thumbing through a few papers and powerpoint slides to better understand the model.

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I haven't been paying much attention to the weather lately so this is a very pleasant surprise for me. Just took the dog out for a walk and noticed it was snowing at a good clip. Of course we have big, fat pasty flakes falling but I'll take it over the inch or so of snow we've had this winter. :snowing: A little snow cover can only be helpful in the long run.

 

32/0.5" new snow

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I'd probably give it a while for the next 6-8 hours before spiking footballs or tying nooses...even for NE CT.

 

The IVT should only strengthen a bit and while N MA/S NH over to SE MA is definitely favored, these are not very predictable, and little surprises often happen. We'll see if any enhancement tries to occur across all areas as the stronger vortmax approaches overnight.

 

 

Jan17_835pm_Radar.gif

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