Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't mean that they think 2" is the min, they are using that as their "expected" amount. Probabilities by town would make 1-3 an appropriate range. While that wouldn't be shocking given some of the mesos..I think to expect 1-2 would be a good mindset....and if 3 happens in a few towns..that's getting the last piece of pizza when 3 people want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't see a need a need for a warning given the duration/intensity.advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Moderate snow 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 expecting a trace to half inch from Arctic front here, congrats somewhere Jerry to Jeffafa Has a nice look to it. You'll be surprised that you're shoveling in the morning Four days ago,.my tweet I am more impressed with Sunday night Monday potential for the coastline advisory What up Steve. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Winter Storm Warning makes zero sense anywhere given the uncertainty of the norlun, Steve = right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 20z HRRR looks terrible for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT THE CAPE COD ISLANDS RHODE ISLAND EXCEPT BLOCK ISLAND AND WINDHAM COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. * IMPACTS HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. * WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP. amp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not snowing yet. But it is very cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 20z HRRR looks terrible for CT Not really a CT event unfortunately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That seems like a pretty bullish area to have under an advisory but I guess it's partially due to the uncertainty of where the norlun sets up so they figure better safe than sorry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Good lord the radar is still down? Talk about an absolute bummer. During one of our only events so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pls define norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS still bullish for the Monads-ORH and eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not really a CT event unfortunately... ... look at the Box map that was posted. Not that I disagree with you, but you can't just say "it's not a CT event unfortunately" like that is the consensus forecast with our NWS regional office throwing out 2"s and 3"s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not really a CT event unfortunately...You try to make every event BOScentric. Everyone is getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pls define norlun Decent primer at link below and the link to the original paper is at the bottom of the article. http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That seems like a pretty bullish area to have under an advisory but I guess it's partially due to the uncertainty of where the norlun sets up so they figure better safe than sorry? 18z GFS comes close though... QPF is fairly widespread in Eastern Mass. If that verifies it would fit with the Advisory counties quite nicely. Usually some decent ratios in these things, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What up Steve. Enjoynice,can you.bump my post from four days ago when I posted I like Sunday Monday look out for INVT and you told me no model had an INVT ha. Hopefully I bust low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You try to make every event BOScentric. Everyone is getting snow. I don't think ill be getting very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pls define norlun http://lmgtfy.com/?q=norlun+trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You try to make every event BOScentric. Everyone is getting snow. You're just upset that this type of event doesn't favor you. Just like it doesn't favor me versus Plymouth or Gloucester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You try to make every event BOScentric. Everyone is getting snow. It was an annoying post. But does this really get you excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z GFS comes close though... QPF is fairly widespread in Eastern Mass. If that verifies it would fit with the Advisory counties quite nicely. Usually some decent ratios in these things, too. gfs_tprecip_neng_11.png Yeah that'll do it for most verbatim -- sweet look. I was more skeptical about central MA and Windham county in CT but I guess .2" QPF at 15:1 would do it and that's not totally out of the ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 nice,can you.bump my post from four days ago when I posted I like Sunday Monday look out for INVT and you told me no model had an INVT ha. Hopefully I bust low We actually first started talking about the possibility on Jan 13th, though back then it was a longshot...I remember discussing the Euro output of it. In retrospect fairly impressive that it will end up panning out somewhat close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS looks on track with box map. 2-4 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I love that site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It was an annoying post. But does this really get you excited? If I cared what that model showed no..but I don;t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You're just upset that this type of event doesn't favor you. Just like it doesn't favor me versus Plymouth or Gloucester. I could care less who it favors. My point is every event whether it be snow or severe..you always make it look like BOS is the best place to be. A great example was yesterday..We're all getting snow tonight. So let's all enjoy the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I could care less who it favors. My point is every event whether it be snow or severe..you always make it look like BOS is the best place to be. A great example was yesterday..We're all getting snow tonight. So let's all enjoy the event You are aware that I just moved back to BOS for the first time in close to 5 years two weeks ago? I was in Northeast MA 40min north of BOS and a few miles from NH border the past 2 1/2 years. The 2 years before that I was in Baltimore MD. The year before that I was in Bridgton ME. What would be the basis or history of me trying to make BOS look like the best place to be? Nice try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 LOL, "always try to make BOS look the best for severe". BOS is a hellhole for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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