January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

[WxUSAF]

Miller B right? I mean they usually blow for us unless there is epic block. That seems solid. I hate transfer storms.

The storm on the 18z GFS is not a Miller B.  It's a Miller A. 

[Bob Chill]

Yes. But I am conditioned mentally to believe they are not good for us. But with this block could be epic slow moving snow bomb.

As depicted it's a hybrid of sorts. It has characteristics of both an A and B. It's a southern stream vort so that is not a classic miller b. It's not uncommon for a miller a to turn a little early and jump the coast with a block in place.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The storm on the 18z GFS is not a Miller B. It's a Miller A.

What was Feb 5, 2009 classified as?

[WxUSAF]

What was Feb 5, 2009 classified as?

I don't remember any snow on Feb 5, 2009

 

Feb 5-6 was a Miller A, and Feb 10 was a Miller B. 

[Amped]

The only reason I'm actually excited about this one is because the EURO looked very similar to the GFS with regards to the overall setup. It seems like it could be an AA event since the AO might spike a bit right after the storm. 

It's still 10 days out, even though us crazy people have still been tracking it for 5 days it's nowhere close to within range.

[HighStakes]

I am too...about the pattern...but I can't really get excited about next weekend before getting through the midweek whatever first. I could see at at least some flakes for wintry appeal happening.

I'm more of a one at a time guy

I was really hoping we could break the ice next week even if it's just a coating. Still have time for that to improve.

[clskinsfan]

I like having the Para on board as well. With that block and a 50/50 in place I wouldnt be that concerned about a jumper missing us. It would have to jump south of us as long as the the 50/50 is far enough south. And could actually lead to a bigger front end thump before it transfers. Looking interesting so far for sure.

[dailylurker]

Did anything in 2010 show up this far out?

[WinterWxLuvr]

I don't remember any snow on Feb 5, 2009

Feb 5-6 was a Miller A, and Feb 10 was a Miller B.

Oops, I meant 2010. I thought there was a transfer with it. Still Miller A even with a transfer I guess. I think Bob mentioned that a post or so back.

[BTRWx]

As depicted it's a hybrid of sorts. It has characteristics of both an A and B. It's a southern stream vort so that is not a classic miller b. It's not uncommon for a miller a to turn a little early and jump the coast with a block in place.

Big key

[WinterWxLuvr]

Did anything in 2010 show up this far out?

I can answer that one. I think no. We were all wrapped up in the Jan 30 storm at ten days out. There was also an event on Feb 1 that had our attention. My memory is that Feb 5 showed up big about 3 days prior.

[BristowWx]

The storm on the 18z GFS is not a Miller B.  It's a Miller A.

Sorry. I thought that transfer energy in SC with primary headed into southern apps was a B. My bad. Always learning.

[MN Transplant]

I can answer that one. I think no. We were all wrapped up in the Jan 30 storm at ten days out. There was also an event on Feb 1 that had our attention. My memory is that Feb 5 showed up big about 3 days prior.

 

There was talk of Feb 5-6 in the Jan 30 thread, I believe.  The infamous DGEX run was at least 5 days out (edit - it was the 18z, Jan 30th run).

[Fozz]

I can answer that one. I think no. We were all wrapped up in the Jan 30 storm at ten days out. There was also an event on Feb 1 that had our attention. My memory is that Feb 5 showed up big about 3 days prior.

 

I remember seeing the Feb 6 storm show up on the evening of Jan 30th.... and that's where the attention turned right away. It quickly got hyped up to the point that even the Feb 2 event was overshadowed by the big one.

[Kat]

We would kill for that Feb 1 event now. It doesn't look big on the books but we had a short duration heavy snow event. Think the totals were under reported at DCA.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yeah MN and Fozz. That's certainly very possible. That was a Sat night and we just had a good storm. Not typically when I'd be looking long range.

One memory from that period for me is how down everyone was on Wed night and Thursday before the Jan 29 model miracle day.

[HighStakes]

I remember seeing the Feb 6 storm show up on the evening of Jan 30th.... and that's where the attention turned right away. It quickly got hyped up to the point that even the Feb 2 event was overshadowed by the big one.

The Feb 2 event really snuck up on us. It didn't look like much on Sunday then improved on Monday and then WSW's were issue mid morning on tuesday for 3-6. 

[Heisy]

The Dec 26 2010 storm was the storm where the models had it in the uber LR, lost it. Then 48 hours out the GFS showed a direct hit, but since no other models had it the NWS was writing it off as initialization errors. The night b4 the storm the models all jumped on it was a pretty amazing once in a lifetime thing. Though I shouldn't say once in a lifetime since Jan 25 2000 is pretty similar, if not better.

 

The Feb storms were tracked pretty far out. I remember the night of the superbowl the GGEM was the first to show the Feb 9-11 storm. The EURO was similar and the next day the GFS latched on and never left. So it was hooked 5-6 days out. Sometimes when you get such a sick pattern you can raise the %s that there will be a winter storm by a large amount. 

 

It can change of course (knock on wood), but it does look like we're going to get a pretty hefty W based block. Something we've been searching for years for. This isn't some crazy fantasy storm IMO, if the pattern is legit then this threat is certainly real.

 

One thing I'll warn people about is that the storm track will be determined by where that ULL in SE Canada sets up. It is possible tonight's 00z GFS shows the 50/50 shift westward thus showing an inland runner. It is possible the GFS shears out the wave crashing into the West Coast and there isn't even an event. What we need to look for right now at this range are for the ingredients to continue to be shown on the table. Let's get that within 7 days and then we can really start to begin to get excited.

 

Who am I kidding, maybe it was the fact that this was the first legit fantasy run of the winter, but the 18z GFS got me hella excited. 

[dailylurker]

Great post, Highzenberg. You answered everything that I was wondering, plus some.

[CAPE]

There was talk of Feb 5-6 in the Jan 30 thread, I believe.  The infamous DGEX run was at least 5 days out (edit - it was the 18z, Jan 30th run).

Yup. I can remember sitting here with the fresh, 15 degree fluff on the ground, looking at the guidance thinking WOW, this might really happen.

[gymengineer]

The Dec 26 2010 storm was the storm where the models had it in the uber LR, lost it. Then 48 hours out the GFS showed a direct hit, but since no other models had it the NWS was writing it off as initialization errors. The night b4 the storm the models all jumped on it was a pretty amazing once in a lifetime thing. Though I shouldn't say once in a lifetime since Jan 25 2000 is pretty similar, if not better.

 

The Feb storms were tracked pretty far out. I remember the night of the superbowl the GGEM was the first to show the Feb 9-11 storm. The EURO was similar and the next day the GFS latched on and never left. So it was hooked 5-6 days out. Sometimes when you get such a sick pattern you can raise the %s that there will be a winter storm by a large amount. . 

The night of the Superbowl? That was 2/7/10, which many DC area residents spent without power. Did you mean another date?

[Fozz]

The Feb 2 event really snuck up on us. It didn't look like much on Sunday then improved on Monday and then WSW's were issue mid morning on tuesday for 3-6. 

 

I remember that... and I was really shocked when I saw the pink over our area on the NWS warning map. I was expecting 1-3" or so, then we were suddenly in a (minimal) warning. But that storm was just an appetizer, most of the attention was on the big one.

[nj2va]

I don't have NH maps for the Para, but looks like a West based block and a robust 50-50

 

Matt, WxBell has them but I can't post Euro maps.  But you're right, robust 50/50 and a west based block.  Mean trough is just east of the MS River.  The setup is pretty much perfect for a KU here.  

[gymengineer]

Sorry. I thought that transfer energy in SC with primary headed into southern apps was a B. My bad. Always learning.

Miller's own work was from storms in a ten year period ending in 1939. His focus on "B" type storms was the secondary redevelopment of the surface low along the Atlantic coast. I think over the years, the A/B designation has taken on other qualifiers including northern vs. southern stream.

 

Others, including KU, have tweaked the A-B scheme slightly. They called their "Gulf of Mexico-Atlantic Coast" vs. "Atlantic Coastal Redevelopment" categories similar but not identical to Miller's A and B categories.

 

Some of DC's biggest snowstorms had hybrid qualities.

PDII? That primary low got to TN/KY before the redevelopment off the Mid-Atlantic coast. 

PDI? KU actually put that in their "Redevelopment" (Miller B-ish) category even though the "primary" low over KY was only 1024 mb. 

1/96? Isobar kinks along the inverted trough extended from the Gulf of Mexico deep into KY before the low consolidated over GA/SC. 

[PaEasternWX]

Matt, WxBell has them but I can't post Euro maps.  But you're right, robust 50/50 and a west based block.  Mean trough is just east of the MS River.  The setup is pretty much perfect for a KU here.

• Quote
•  

What does "KU" stand for?

[gymengineer]

What does "KU" stand for?

Kocin/Uccellini. Any storm that appeared in the case-studies section of their Northeast Snowstorms book is considered a KU. All are significant snowstorms for somewhere along the DC-Boston corridor, but not all were great for our subforum. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

The Feb 2 event really snuck up on us. It didn't look like much on Sunday then improved on Monday and then WSW's were issue mid morning on tuesday for 3-6.

True, but that event looked good about a week out and then basically disappeared for a few days.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

There was talk of Feb 5-6 in the Jan 30 thread, I believe.  The infamous DGEX run was at least 5 days out (edit - it was the 18z, Jan 30th run).

 

That's sort of my recollection as well.  Of course focus at the time was on the Jan. 30 "come back" storm (after it disappeared for awhile), but there were rumblings about the following week.  We then got the Groundhog's Day event (5" where I'm at), and right around then there was a lot of discussion about Feb. 5-6 in the models, etc.  That Groundhog's storm was almost looked at as an appetizer at the time, I recall.  I think by then, we knew what was coming that next weekend.

[mappy]

I recall the Jan 30th even pretty well, really unexpected, ended up closing the office and I got an extended weekend out of it. Then the following week with back to back big storms. Pretty sweet 10 days of snow

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

The Dec 26 2010 storm was the storm where the models had it in the uber LR, lost it. Then 48 hours out the GFS showed a direct hit, but since no other models had it the NWS was writing it off as initialization errors. The night b4 the storm the models all jumped on it was a pretty amazing once in a lifetime thing. Though I shouldn't say once in a lifetime since Jan 25 2000 is pretty similar, if not better.

 

The Feb storms were tracked pretty far out. I remember the night of the superbowl the GGEM was the first to show the Feb 9-11 storm. The EURO was similar and the next day the GFS latched on and never left. So it was hooked 5-6 days out. Sometimes when you get such a sick pattern you can raise the %s that there will be a winter storm by a large amount. 

 

It can change of course (knock on wood), but it does look like we're going to get a pretty hefty W based block. Something we've been searching for years for. This isn't some crazy fantasy storm IMO, if the pattern is legit then this threat is certainly real.

 

One thing I'll warn people about is that the storm track will be determined by where that ULL in SE Canada sets up. It is possible tonight's 00z GFS shows the 50/50 shift westward thus showing an inland runner. It is possible the GFS shears out the wave crashing into the West Coast and there isn't even an event. What we need to look for right now at this range are for the ingredients to continue to be shown on the table. Let's get that within 7 days and then we can really start to begin to get excited.

 

Who am I kidding, maybe it was the fact that this was the first legit fantasy run of the winter, but the 18z GFS got me hella excited. 

 

Yeah, the "storm which should not be named"...that's how I remember it going down in the models too.  The Euro had a wound up blizzard some time in advance I believe.  Then as it got closer in, the GFS and Euro were cutting us here in the MA (DC area) out of it, looked like a Philly and north storm or NYC and north event.  And the tease on Christmas Eve, when the GFS was pushing ~0.75 QPF in here which never materialized of course.  We actually got watches out of it for awhile, I think (maybe warnings, even?).  I was actually up in Philly for Christmas and left early on the 26th, knowing that Philly was still well in play for the event.  My parents' place is near downtown, they got nearly a foot, and it's a good thing I left when I did.  Highzenberg...you're in NE Philly?  You probably got more there even than what my parents got around the south side of town, there was a pretty sharp gradient I recall in that area.