NittanyWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The 1st 6 days will be BN the next 3 AN JAN 10-11-12 are BN . So if it turns out days 1- 12 are A , i will always take the loss . I am BN from day 9 - 16 , so Jan 12 - 20 I am BN , where do you stand ? We talking a period average or the dailies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Why is there so much "my forecast was right, yours was wrong" going on here? First of all, can we get through the month before anyone claims victory? And secondly, instead of the "my forecast was better than yours" mentality, how about some collaboration on factors that are going into/making forecasts right or wrong? We can point fingers all day but actually getting down to the reason as to why a particular forecast was off will help us all learn. End rant. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I see a 2 week period of winter weather from January 15-January 31st and then a well above average February with little snow. Wow different than many other forecasts for February. Hope you are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I see a 2 week period of winter weather from January 15-January 31st and then a well above average February with little snow. many weenie suicides if that happens and most long term snow/temp forecasts would bust if that were to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Wow different than many other forecasts for February. Hope you are wrong. I think he's joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Obviously we don't need a SSW for a good winter example last year but getting it this late in the game might just make for a cruddy spring...to be fair the models didn't look great for snow chances last night. The first two are to warm and then after the 11th the Pv is just crushing everything...I was really expecting to have at least a oppturtinity during this window If we get a suppressed look for a week we'll cash in on the NYC area. It might be as it lifts out but suppressed cold patterns lasting more than 5 days or a week usually bring some snow to nj/NYC whether it be a coastal, clipper or overrunning as the Pv lifts out. The overall pattern is transient and the cold does not win this month, but s week long window in there will probably bring the first measurable snow to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 We talking a period average or the dailies? Totality against the norms . I think the period Jan 12 - 20 is BN @ KNYC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I like snow and warm weather. If it's not snowing, give me 70 degrees and sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I like snow and warm weather. If it's not snowing, give me 70 degrees and sunshine. This coming from the person who gets hyped on every potential rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Why is there so much "my forecast was right, yours was wrong" going on here? First of all, can we get through the month before anyone claims victory? And secondly, instead of the "my forecast was better than yours" mentality, how about some collaboration on factors that are going into/making forecasts right or wrong? We can point fingers all day but actually getting down to the reason as to why a particular forecast was off will help us all learn. End rant. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk In general, I try to listen to the folks who have the credentials. You know the running joke, weatherman is the only job where you can be wrong often and still have a job ( ok there's politicians too but we already know they are mostly full of it to begin with, whereas we tend to see meteorologists, even those with just a BS, as learned scientists ) in other words it is really hard to be spot on with a forecast. That said, the experts are the ones with red tags here, and one guy with a yellow pro forecasters thingy, and the gist I'm getting is that this is not lasting cold. Based on history too, I would not be at all surprised to see this as a fairly mild winter with little snow. It is not uncommon; what is uncommon is to see lots of snow after a snowless December. Happened last year, but that was not typical. We will see how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This coming from the person who gets hyped on every potential rain storm. What the hell are you blabbing about now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 No he does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Anthony Masiello posted this earlier this morning Winter fans, don't fear the Gulf of Alaska trough. It's a great Niño wave that helps build a more traditional -NAO mid-winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Anthony Masiello posted this earlier this morning Ok, so he is seeing something on the horizon. In general, where do most of the experts stand? If only a handful are saying this, that's one thing, but is there any consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Anthony Masiello posted this earlier this morning We've been promised a -nao before. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Why is there so much "my forecast was right, yours was wrong" going on here? First of all, can we get through the month before anyone claims victory? And secondly, instead of the "my forecast was better than yours" mentality, how about some collaboration on factors that are going into/making forecasts right or wrong? We can point fingers all day but actually getting down to the reason as to why a particular forecast was off will help us all learn. End rant. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I think he's joking He's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I like snow and warm weather. If it's not snowing, give me 70 degrees and sunshine. I with you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I can't believe some are still in denial that a pattern change has occurred. To quote DT "there was a fookng ridge parked over us in December and it's completely gone now". Snow chances continue to look good after the 1/10 but it's no lock either. How the hell is anyone gonna write off February either when Nino climo targets that month as the coldest & snowiest. You can't have it both ways by saying Dec & Feb will both be warm and snowless in a Nino because climo says NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 18 at high point NJ right now Yeah we dropped to 19 as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I with you on that. We seem to be entering a period of warm and wet, cold and dry, wash, rinse and repeat. Not exactly an exciting pattern for mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Yeah we dropped to 19 as well.. Lower 20's for me and 26 when I left for work at 7:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Why is there so much "my forecast was right, yours was wrong" going on here? First of all, can we get through the month before anyone claims victory? And secondly, instead of the "my forecast was better than yours" mentality, how about some collaboration on factors that are going into/making forecasts right or wrong? We can point fingers all day but actually getting down to the reason as to why a particular forecast was off will help us all learn. End rant. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Best post here in a long time. Certain posters should drop their arrogance and know it all attitude. The board should be about objective forecasting...what can go right and what can go wrong. The constant"I know everything" and belittling of other posters has made this place a mess no wonder why so many of the quality posters and mets left in droves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Best post here in a long time. Certain posters should drop their arrogance and know it all attitude. The board should be about objective forecasting...what can go right and what can go wrong. The constant"I know everything" and belittling of other posters has made this place a mess no wonder why so many of the quality posters and mets left in droves I hope that's not what I'm portraying with my response. I was called out and subsequently felt the need to respond to it, since my position was mis-characterized. I'm finding that tiring and am done with it. My posting frequency isn't high in this sub-forum (and on Am Wx in general) since I tend to find this place more combative than necessary and frankly have a busy enough forecasting schedule as is. I chime in when I can. This exchange kinda re-affirmed that idea. I went through why I believed what I did back in late December, focusing largely on an MJO influence with strong ENSO background forcing. I do think this appears to be a fair assumption given the pieces in play here as we head deeper into the month and remains a great case study for how the MJO can influence large scale pattern shifts on a sub-seasonal basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Best post here in a long time. Certain posters should drop their arrogance and know it all attitude. The board should be about objective forecasting...what can go right and what can go wrong. The constant"I know everything" and belittling of other posters has made this place a mess no wonder why so many of the quality posters and mets left in droves Couldnt agree more, the learning process should never end regardless of how much you think you know. Bottom line : to be learned is to be modest not the other way around. The more you learn the more you realize you need to learn more to put it simply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 With December 2015 have ranked as the warmest December on record, a look at the 10 warmest Decembers (prior to 2015) and January-April snowfall may provide a hint of what lies ahead. January-April Snowfall for New York City: Mean: 15.5" Median: 15.1" Lowest: 3.5", 2002 Highest: 26.0", 1924 < 10": 20% cases 15" or more: 50% cases 20" or more: 30% cases 25" or more: 20% cases 30" or more: No cases The three El Niño Decembers were followed by 24.2", 11.8", and 12.4" snow in the January-April period. All of those cases saw the bulk of their snowfall occur after January. The sample size is small given the selection of the 10 warmest Decembers. However, cautiously taking into consideration El Niño climatology and the El Niño subset, an outcome with snowfall rivaling such amounts as fell during the winters of 1972-73, 1997-98, 2001-02, and 2011-12 still appears less likely than something between 10"-20" for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 the gfes shows a +epo after 300 hrsNo. Negative through the run. Tropical forcing argues that's it too aggressive sliding the Alaska low east as well, not that a slide east would be a bad thing either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I hope that's not what I'm portraying with my response. I was called out and subsequently felt the need to respond to it, since my position was mis-characterized. I'm finding that tiring and am done with it. My posting frequency isn't high in this sub-forum (and on Am Wx in general) since I tend to find this place more combative than necessary and frankly have a busy enough forecasting schedule as is. I chime in when I can. This exchange kinda re-affirmed that idea. I went through why I believed what I did back in late December, focusing largely on an MJO influence with strong ENSO background forcing. I do think this appears to be a fair assumption given the pieces in play here as we head deeper into the month and remains a great case study for how the MJO can influence large scale pattern shifts on a sub-seasonal basis. I enjoy your posts. Keep posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I enjoy your posts. Keep posting. I will take the fall for this one . I will tone it down with him/ my bad . My anger is with others and was wrong and went after him . So I owe NITT an apology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 AO is confused as to going further. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml NAO a little worse today. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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