Met Winter Banter

[ForestHillWx]

It has been my understanding, 300+ hour models are to be discounted as to the integrity they provide. The pattern has changed dramatically since December. Let's enjoy a taste of the cold before arguing the +epo is on the horizon based on a LR GEFS plot.

[NEG NAO]

Adding to the confusion is if you look at the various MJO forecasts - wide range of solutions - Euro's only is favorable for a few weeks then it is heading towards the unfavorable 4 - 6 area

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

It has been my understanding, 300+ hour models are to be discounted as to the integrity they provide. The pattern has changed dramatically since December. Let's enjoy a taste of the cold before arguing the +epo is on the horizon based on a LR GEFS plot.

Its not an argument. He posted inaccurate information and was corrected. LR ensemble guidance has some value and certainly more than a single Op run. And, in fact, ensembles are used in forecast packages.

[Rjay]

I will take the fall for this one . I will tone it down with him/ my bad . My anger is with others and was wrong and went after him .

So I owe NITT an apology

That's good of you PB.

[forkyfork]

No.

Negative through the run. Tropical forcing argues that's it too aggressive sliding the Alaska low east as well, not that a slide east would be a bad thing either.

you're either trolling or completely clueless. that's not a negative epo

[snowman19]

you're either trolling or completely clueless. that's not a negative epo

I saw that post before and I was like what the heck? It is textbook +EPO

[PB GFI]

you're either trolling or completely clueless. that's not a negative epo

 

 

Both the Euro and the GFS are - 

 

I see the AN heights to the S . But there is ridging into N AK  over that trough , to me that looks like a - EPO .

 

The models are calculating it as - .

 

Do you see + somewhere ? This is how Ryan calculates it . 

[forkyfork]

those are both op models and not the timeframe in question. next.

[PB GFI]

those are both op models and not the timeframe in question. next.

 

 

Let me see if I can find day 12.5 ish - I see that ends  day 10 - 

 

I go out 10 days . Do you have 15 day ? 

 

I would like to see how its calc. 

[forkyfork]

the 12z run got stronger with the signal. the vortex pushes east and we lose the cold.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

[Brian5671]

the 12z run got stronger with the signal. the vortex pushes east and we lose the cold.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Winter cancel?

[PB GFI]

the 12z run got stronger with the signal. the vortex pushes east and we lose the cold.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

 

 

The Euro is slower on the WC . I do think we break but  after the 20th. The reason that looks like a - EPO to me was the POS over the NEG .

But when that height field gets shunted east then the ridge will pop out ahead of it . I think we have 10 days of cold to deal with 1st 

 

[Rjay]

Winter cancel?

Late in the GEFS runs it pushes the vortex east and creates more of a zonal flow and overwhelms the country with pacific air. Whether that's correct remains to be seen. It's on the table but do you or anyone else really trust anything in the very long range whether is cold/warm, wet/dry?

[Brian5671]

Late in the GEFS runs it pushes the vortex east and creates a zonal flow and overwhelms the country with pacific air. Whether that's correct remains to be seen. It's on the table but do you or anyone else really trust anything in the very long range whether is cold/warm, wet/dry?

Nope and especially from the GFS. 

-

what would be ugly is if we don't get a good snow storm from this mid Jan bonus cold spell.   If we do break the last 10 days of January, we could be looking at some real low totals unless we get a big reversal like last year.

[MJO812]

Euro is pretty much a cold front now with the costal storm for Sunday...

Imagine lol

[forkyfork]

https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/684080548386570240

[SnoSki14]

Nope and especially from the GFS.

-

what would be ugly is if we don't get a good snow storm from this mid Jan bonus cold spell. If we do break the last 10 days of January, we could be looking at some real low totals unless we get a big reversal like last year.

Yet our winters are so variable that we may not see any measurable until Feb and still find a way to be AN snowfall once winter ends.

[Brian5671]

Yet our winters are so variable that we may not see any measurable until Feb and still find a way to be AN snowfall once winter ends.

with average totals in the mid 20's to mid 30's, it's easy to do with one blockbuster.  Look at winter  1978, 1983 and 2006.  Even the "Great" patterns only last 30-40 days and the good are delivered in that short period of time.  95-96 is actually an outlier for how long the pattern went on (with one big break of course)

[PB GFI]

https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/684080548386570240

 

 

EURO 

 

[snywx]

with average totals in the mid 20's to mid 30's, it's easy to do with one blockbuster. Look at winter 1978, 1983 and 2006

That's why I find it hard to believe that my area will see average snowfall which is around 50". Since December I've been leaning toward the under

[forkyfork]

there was a major SSW in jan 58

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

That is not a textbook +EPO. Good god almighty. The GEFS mean from overnight is a smoothed -EPO in the means through the run. If you're new here...a pro tip. Don't listen to Forky.

[NittanyWx]

So going back to the ENSO filtered MJO analogs...here's what a typical phase 8 response with Nino forcing looks like:

 

 

Here's the start of the phase 8 period on today's Euro...not a bad match on this side of the pole.  Not perfect, but pretty close.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

there was a major SSW in jan 58

Now you want to turn into a snow weenie by referencing something Tom has been referencing for months?

[PB GFI]

there was a major SSW in jan 58

 

 

Why would that make the Euro 5 day mean wrong ? 

 

It is as relevant as someone posting a 5 day mean vs 98  where the PAC was different 

 

The point is the models diverge . 

 

When did that strat warm in 58 begin Jan 15 - 20 ? So that`s what helped crush Feb .

The SST  profile and it`s forcing is similar to 58 . The result in the SE/MA are seen on the Euro .

 

Believe the  model of your choice . 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

I saw that post before and I was like what the heck? It is textbook +EPO

No. As the biggest troll in this subforum, you saw my post and were unable to counter it properly. So, you waited until you had back up, then chimed in to do what you do best. That is not a +EPO. All ensembles continue to show a -EPO in the means. The gfs is playing into a progressive bias not just because of wishcasting, but because tropical forcing does not support such an easterly track of the low.

[NittanyWx]

I'm interested to see how the 4 day mean 500mb pattern looks for the end of next week.  Also interested to see whether we get a true phase 1 response for mid-con warmth behind this.  ENSO is flexing it's muscle here, but this MJO event ain't dead yet.

[Rjay]

Now you want to turn into a snow weenie by referencing something Tom has been referencing for months?

Pretty sure he's saying there hasn't been one this year and there's none in sight so the 1958 analog is meh.

[Rjay]

So going back to the ENSO filtered MJO analogs...here's what a typical phase 8 response with Nino forcing looks like:

Here's the start of the phase 8 period on today's Euro...not a bad match on this side of the pole. Not perfect, but pretty close.

That is pretty darn close.

[psv88]

Wow. This thread is a disaster. 

 

It's weather, there are no winners and losers. 

 

That's the point...