LIsnowBubble Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Btw... new here.. good reading short term data.. long term... well, enjoy the debate... But for the love of God... let's get a snowfall here... cold coming... need that first. Anthony, glad to see you here... my condolences to Jets fans as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It sucks being a mets and jets fan hey the mets made it to the world series! That's better then nothing these days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS has a coastal hugger early next week and it torches all the way up to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS has a coastal hugger early next week and it torches all the way up to Maine. Temps are going to be a issue for that one along the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It sucks being a mets and jets fanCould be worse, you could be an Islanders or Rangers fan. Then you'd have the trifecta of misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Temps are going to be a issue for that one along the coast... If it bombs like the 18z GFS shows they won't. If it's a somewhat weak rapid mover than yeah but to me that air mass looks fine if the storm is deeper than 990-992 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS has a coastal hugger early next week and it torches all the way up to Maine. Far from a hugger. The problem here is thats its just too warm all the way up to Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 If it bombs like the 18z GFS shows they won't. If it's a somewhat weak rapid mover than yeah but to me that air mass looks fine if the storm is deeper than 990-992 That low north of the lakes is going to be a problem for the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Probably gonna miss on timing here which is frustrating when the MJO playbook looks pretty good overall. MJO can be a tricky beast when it comes to that. Liked the idea of the quick cold shot right after the new year, flip back warm, but thought this flip back cooler would happen a bit closer to mid-month rather than around the 12th, 13th. Subsequently, the Euro Ens is much milder at the end as it heads towards a ENSO filtered phase 1. Still looks like MJO in charge... Sorry man , this is what you said , week 1 -6 the period we were arguing about would end up plus 4. It's going to be below N . The 2nd miss on your part ( and at that range was a big forecast ) was when you said the east would be flooded with mild air and that the pattern looked terrible after the 10th and pulled out the Canadian ensembles to make your point. It's a 3 day transient ridge and then it gone. Now we just " cool down " a very cold arctic outbreak east of the Rockies is forecast day 9 thru 15 . Not cool but probably a 6 day period of well below N. You didn't miss on timing, you missed on your idea. Now your honking a warm up day 15 ? Well after what happens day 9 thru 14 even the BN the euro is showing will still be BN just not as severe . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 If it bombs like the 18z GFS shows they won't. If it's a somewhat weak rapid mover than yeah but to me that air mass looks fine if the storm is deeper than 990-992 Verbatim (from the 18z gfs) there's no high to the north and there's a low NE Of the Great Lakes. There's basically no cold air source. The storm would really have to bomb and throw back very heavy precip to cool the column and even then it's prob rain in that set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Gefs mean has a low on the benchmark. I think we will see a coastal but the temps might ve problem. Still plenty of time to fix that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Verbatim (from the 18z gfs) there's no high to the north and there's a low NE Of the Great Lakes. There's basically no cold air source. The storm would really have to bomb and throw back very heavy precip to cool the column and even then it's prob rain in that set up. I'm banking on that low not hanging around that long, hopefully that's what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The Kara Sea high is beyond impressive, it is absolutely ridiculous based on what I've seen historically. Anyway, regarding this pattern the split flow nature of this in the 11-15 day would not be a cold signal on the east coast. This is one of those situations where the teleconnections look better, but the east still gets flooded with mild air. Still think the playbook here is to follow the Nino filtered MJO analogs. They argue this cool shot is likely underforecast short term and consequently the GEFS would likely be too cold 11-15. Happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 Could be worse, you could be an Islanders or Rangers fan. Then you'd have the trifecta of misery.Ok buddy stop while you're ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Could be worse, you could be an Islanders or Rangers fan. Then you'd have the trifecta of misery. The Rangers IMO have officially missed their window. For people who are both Rangers and Mets fans I really hope the Mets haven't or won't miss theirs too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The Rangers IMO have officially missed their window. For people who are both Rangers and Mets fans I really hope the Mets haven't or won't miss theirs too"Henrique! It's over!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Ok buddy stop while you're aheadI've seen my team win 2 cups in person, and 3 total in my life. I'm way ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 I've seen my team win 2 cups in person, and 3 total in my life. I'm way ahead. Forgot you're a devils fan. I seen only 1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I wouldn't draw around too many conclusions from the GFS right now. That's a really complicated setup from 1/8-1/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Forgot you're a devils fan. I seen only 1 lolJust bust chops buddy lol. I've been reduced to a lurker here the last few weeks thanks to the holidays and being off from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Just bust chops buddy lol. I've been reduced to a lurker here the last few weeks thanks to the holidays and being off from work. You only post when you're working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Just bust chops buddy lol. I've been reduced to a lurker here the last few weeks thanks to the holidays and being off from work.Lol welcome back. Another knowledgeable poster is always good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 You only post when you're working? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 We need snow soon otherwise bring on summer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 You only post when you're working? You sound jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 We need snow soon otherwise bring on summer temps. Hell no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 PB GFI is the Donald Trump of the NYC sub-forum, never afraid to tell it like it is and fervently delivers criticism to other posters' outlandish logic when attacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Not that I want summer yet but snow would be nice to have sooner then later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 PB GFI is the Donald Trump of the NYC sub-forum, never afraid to tell it like it is and fervently delivers criticism to other posters' outlandish logic when attacked. At least PB makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 If you like storminess then things look good coming up. I hope the op runs are out to lunch because that's not a good snowy setup for that coastal on the 10/11th. We know from experience that even a strong coastal in January could end up being all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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