Modfan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah I am torn. I mean I feel that OTS look...but if one little feature is off..euro to Fuji happy etc...then it is a different ball game. Still kind of early to say for sure. Is the Euro taking into account how taking into how Ida's remnants may interact with J? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah I am torn. I mean I feel that OTS look...but if one little feature is off..euro to Fuji happy etc...then it is a different ball game. Still kind of early to say for sure. Also the speed and movement of Joaquin I'm sure will play another major factor and that alone could really throw a wrench into things. One thing that seems to be a consistent theme around these parts (especially lately) is that models have struggled with the actual forward speed of these systems. We have always been accustomed to tropical systems accelerating their forward speed by a great deal but that hasn't necessarily been the case as of late. If you take this into account here this actually further complicates things b/c now you have to determine...what does a slower or faster forward speed mean and do? In reality things could still go either way...would just depend on the large-scale features and such too. Too fast of a speed and perhaps the trough isn't as sharp or as deep so the capture doesn't occur early or too fast and the upstream blocking doesn't have time to break down so perhaps the track is more north until it gets captured and then tugged east. Just too many possibilities on the table still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Is the Euro taking into account how taking into account how Ida's remnants may interact with J? There are a few pieces of energy east of Bermuda that interact with Joaquin and cause it to move NE, but the GFS is faster with Joaquin and these pieces miss interacting with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah I am torn. I mean I feel that OTS look...but if one little feature is off..euro to Fuji happy etc...then it is a different ball game. Still kind of early to say for sure. Watch WV overnight especially to to J's NE that feature is supposed to tug J east Fri night per the Euro. another item to watch is the Euro Ens mean drastically weakens J all day tomorrow allowing it to be tugged East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Is the Euro taking into account how taking into account how Ida's remnants may interact with J? How much of an influence would the remnants have though? I mean it would have to be something strong enough I would think to influence the upper pattern. Even if there was some interaction with Joaquin does that have any influence on the bigger picture and the features that will dictate things more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 J won't weaken tomorrow. I think those models are wrong that show a weaker J in the near term given that shear continues to decrease over J and that outflow is improving especially on the north side of the circulation, however he hasn't been able to sustain deep convection in the core enough to actually get an eye forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'll re-iterate the sentiments I made this morning ... It's truly been remarkable how, come hell or high water, ...there shalt be no model run that brings any threat to NE. Considering the enumerable possibilities in a chaotic realm, that persistence is amazing as these models have been buck shot spraying tracks everywhere except NE ... for days. fascinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Tip was that your question on the weather channel just now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Tip was that your question on the weather channel just now? Lol..I just saw that too and was thinking the same thing. Defintley seemed too simple and not verbose enough to be from TIP though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z HWRF reflects the sub-optimal structure in the northwest. Has backed off on the bombing out pressures of the 12z HWRF, sits at 953-965 mB for the next 24 hours. Whether it's dry air ingested in the northwest or some shear, structure has struggled today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Lol..I just saw that too and was thinking the same thing. Defintley seemed too simple and not verbose enough to be from TIP though. What was the question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Lol..I just saw that too and was thinking the same thing. Defintley seemed too simple and not verbose enough to be from TIP though. what are you talking about ... I don't watch twc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 In terms of probabilities, I'd hedge slightly better than 50/50 that the track stays east of the East Coast. Problem comes to potential impact/safety of millions of people. With that said, the 12z euro ensembles showed a noticeable east/southeast trend from the 00z. It should be noted that the 12z OP Euro is on the right fringe of the Euro ensemble spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 what are you talking about ... I don't watch twc I was going to say that also, I wouldn't think you would be a avid TWC fan. Basically it was a question asking if they thought Joaquin going OTS as per the Euro was a viable option. (They had Dr Knabb on air from the NHC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Twc is much more watchable since they went full geek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 In terms of probabilities, I'd hedge slightly better than 50/50 that the track stays east of the East Coast. Problem comes to potential impact/safety of millions of people. With that said, the 12z euro ensembles showed a noticeable east/southeast trend from the 00z. It should be noted that the 12z OP Euro is on the right fringe of the Euro ensemble spread.so you are saying there is a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This thing's going to have an awesome eye momentarily ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This thing's going to have an awesome eye momentarily ... You think? I'm not seeing it, seems to be struggling with drier air still wrapping in from northwest... Microwave images also looked a little more promising this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 F309 Mission #05 into JOAQUIN Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm As of 23:21 UTC Sep 30, 2015: Aircraft Position: 25.08°N 74.03°W Bearing: 135° at 324 kt Altitude: 3096 gpm Peak 10-second Wind: 35 kt at 39° Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 997.5 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Let the recon begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 F309 Mission #05 into JOAQUIN Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm As of 23:21 UTC Sep 30, 2015: Aircraft Position: 25.08°N 74.03°W Bearing: 135° at 324 kt Altitude: 3096 gpm Peak 10-second Wind: 35 kt at 39° Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 997.5 mb This measurement is to the northwest pretty far from the center closer to 24.3N 73.1W. Which is a good thing because those are pretty weak measurements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z HWRF even further west and accelerated a good 12 hours, so landfall north of Wilmington NC with a more powerful system, 931mB Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If this hits nc im pretty tempted to take the drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 For all Euro huggers, we in the NYC/NJ area are still waiting for the 30" of snow it promised us last winter 1/2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 For all Euro huggers, we in the NYC/NJ area are still waiting for the 30" of snow it promised us last winter 1/2015. The euro's had its failings, but this scenario is too high-risk to simply discount it for being the outlier. It's blown it before, but it's still one of the best pieces of guidance out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Nice eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yup really showing now about time we get a good Atlantic hurricane Nice eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Latest recon extrapolated pressure and surface winds significantly stronger, off the AF309: 949.3 mb (28.04 inHg) 96 kts (110.5 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wow quite a bit of strengthening, 12z HWRF may not have been far off: ...Hurricane hunter aircraft finds Joaquin stronger... Summary of 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...information ---------------------------------------------- location...24.0n 73.0w about 95 mi...150 km E of San Salvador Bahamas about 80 mi...125 km NE of samana cays Bahamas maximum sustained winds...105 mph...165 km/h present movement...SW or 225 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/h minimum central pressure...954 mb...28.17 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Twc is much more watchable since they went full geek Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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