Boston Bulldog Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 There's nothing like James, a storm, and a warm body of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 haha Bulldog, that was a good one. Those factors mix and we got a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat 3, according to the NYC crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Do you guys think this could go up to a 4 tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue If eye clears on IR, then satellite cloud top temps sufficient for almost immediately Cat 4 (115 knots). Still early in organization process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 From the perspective of just visual presentation one should be awestruck from rapid intensification combined with modeled track. An east-coast tropical weenies dream. Unbelievable amounts of QPF, further south landfall higher impact winds. Once again I'm getting the shaft. My internet is so friggin slow DISH suxs for HSI. Guess it's a byproduct of living in the woods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 recon data down? did someone hack it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 18z HWRF reflects the sub-optimal structure in the northwest. Has backed off on the bombing out pressures of the 12z HWRF, sits at 953-965 mB for the next 24 hours. Whether it's dry air ingested in the northwest or some shear, structure has struggled today. This is why I hedged against major....this late in the season at that high of a latitude, all it takes is a frontal queef spewing a bit of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is why I hedged against major....this late in the season at that high of a latitude, all it takes is a frontal queef spewing a bit of dry air. yup...it does not take much dry air at air ingested to really hurt the intensification process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Don't worry ray. I won't make u stop posting for the week lol I will own it. Glad to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Eye gaining stronger convective cloud tops within the eye wall. This is getting strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Does this hurricane look like its struggling? I mean sure the eye is taking its slow time to clear out, expected with a new hurricane, it hasn't become fully matured just yet, but it is already a major hurricane Ray, so why would you bet against something that has already happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Eye gaining stronger convective cloud tops within the eye wall. This is getting strong. Excellent call, bud. You schooled me. But I still find it prudent to start conservatively.More often than not you will crash operating like that. you know your stuff, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Does this hurricane look like its struggling? I mean sure the eye is taking its slow time to clear out, expected with a new hurricane, it hasn't become fully matured just yet, but it is already a major hurricane Ray, so why would you bet against something that has already happened. I mean that I had bet against it..as in past tense. I already capitulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Convection will continue to wrap around the eye of the hurricane and then clear out when this process is completed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Convection will continue to wrap around the eye of the hurricane and then clear out when this process is completed. The fact that it is so early in it's maturation process is awesome. EWRC still a ways off. Once it completes one this system will grow, making it even more dangerous.....people focus too much on max sustained winds. Size is just as important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Oh ok Ray. Just checking lol. I think peak intensity can reach 925mb with a wind range between 125-135 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ray that is so true, see I like this side of you. When you see the potential in something, a new light opens up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Eye gaining stronger convective cloud tops within the eye wall. This is getting strong. Does this hurricane look like its struggling? I mean sure the eye is taking its slow time to clear out, expected with a new hurricane, it hasn't become fully matured just yet, but it is already a major hurricane Ray, so why would you bet against something that has already happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is why I hedged against major....this late in the season at that high of a latitude, all it takes is a frontal queef spewing a bit of dry air.he failed to tell you that it LF 931 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Which model package will see that additional synoptic data get calculated into the models? 0z or 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ray that is so true, see I like this side of you. When you see the potential in something, a new light opens up lol. I'm not biased towards minimal impact. I was just wrong. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 he failed to tell you that it LF 931 Ok, not sure what folks are missing, but I've declared that I was wrong about 5 times in the last 15 minutes. I should put it in my sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Funny, Joaquin is on a little oasis of ridging in an ocean of shear. Literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I just saw it Ray, sorry man. It sucks to be wrong. But I would own it if I was wrong as well. CIMSS wind shear maps have 5-10 knots of wind shear decreasing over Joaquin, or it decreased by 5-10 knots already. Plus the outflow pattern is almost perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The fact that it is so early in it's maturation process is awesome. EWRC still a ways off. Once it completes one this system will grow, making it even more dangerous.....people focus too much on max sustained winds. Size is just as important. If not more important. See Hurricane Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 New SHIPS diagnostics shows shear dropping off to 3 knots around hour 36. Between hours 18-60 shows an optimum amount of time to intensify to 135 knots. This system is all systems go for a pressure of 925mb, now the question remains whether or not it can reach category five intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just for the record: right now I think we see a very intense system that will brush the eastern seaboard, track close enough for significant rains, come close to landfall but only brush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If not more important. See Hurricane Sandy. Yo! nice to hear from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just for the record: right now I think we see a very intense system that will brush the eastern seaboard, track close enough for significant rains, come close to landfall but only brush Yea, I've never been sold on a LF....but if it does, it will be nowhere near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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