JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Definitely enough GEFS members more north this run to give pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Definitely enough GEFS members more north this run to give pause.huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 huh I'm not talking a direct hit, nothing has shown that. I think we can get some interesting wx if it ends up around a MD landfall or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm not talking a direct hit, nothing has shown that. I think we can get some interesting wx if it ends up around a MD landfall or north. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin showing how strong he can get and we have no idea on his peak intensity limit. He is showing us that we have a long time to go before we ever know the intensification phase in a hurricane or tropical cyclone. Plus SHIPS shows the environment getting better for intensification. Plus satellite imagery shows an eye developing and perfect upper level outflow developing in all quadrants. Also the central convection is expanding westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Vortex message from HH recon plane shows pressure down to 952mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also it appears the eye is circular and 30nm wide and a closed eyewall is present. We will see this eye continue to clear out rapidly overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml this is my resource for this data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 18z GFDL is stronger with around 927mb pressure at peak, however only 118 knot winds, which is suspect in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Don't worry ray. I won't make u stop posting for the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 More from the AF309 #05: 235200 2346N 07246W 6909 02867 9632 +118 //// 231095 112 102 011 05235230 2345N 07245W 7018 02778 9706 +128 //// 227096 113 096 043 01 234730 2358N 07258W 6972 02735 9493 +193 +083 050010 018 025 001 03 234800 2357N 07256W 6961 02749 9499 +183 +095 103003 007 020 000 00234830 2355N 07255W 6967 02737 9499 +180 +101 173007 009 015 000 00 Cat 3 by 11pm seems likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin showing how strong he can get and we have no idea on his peak intensity limit. He is showing us that we have a long time to go before we ever know the intensification phase in a hurricane or tropical cyclone. Plus SHIPS shows the environment getting better for intensification. Plus satellite imagery shows an eye developing and perfect upper level outflow developing in all quadrants. Also the central convection is expanding westward. Model tracking errors have gotten better, but as you say, they have a long way to go with respect to intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Indeed Hoth, indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Real time http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 00z models will start to shunt east . Baby steps to Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also it appears the eye is circular and 30nm wide and a closed eyewall is present. We will see this eye continue to clear out rapidly overnight. good call yesterday, everyone gave you **** you stuck to your guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 00z models will start to shunt east . Baby steps to Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well the LBAR went east.. now with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Regardless of east shifts.. We will have a strong cat 3 by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Actually it seems the opposite of moving towards the EURO tonight, the 00z models seem to be heading further southwest towards SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Kevin we will have a strong category three hurricane by 11pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 hopefully they already got all these people out of San Salvador Island.. http://www.geraceresearchcentre.com/facilities.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well the LBAR went east.. now with the EuroLol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well the LBAR went east.. now with the Euro LBAR was always way east today. NGXI was always way west today. Consistent biases, whatever the mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 LBAR was always way east today. NGXI was always way west today. Consistent biases, whatever the mechanism. it was a joke.. who cares about the LBAR or the NGXI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Those central Bahamas islands should already be prepared for the worst. This is not a surprise in my opinion, I have seen Joaquin as a dangerous foe for the East Coast of the US, as well and especially for the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 it was a joke.. who cares about the LBAR or the NGXI LOL I missed the sarcasm. The 0z intensity guidance (all init at 100kt) are reaching hard to redeem USCAPEAIRFORCE's cat 5 calls yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 LOL I missed the sarcasm. The 0z intensity guidance (all init at 100kt) are reaching hard to redeem USCAPEAIRFORCE's cat 5 calls yesterday... Well well, they aren't reaching at all because its always been possible especially when the wind shear drops below 5-10 knots 36-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Co-located low level convergence centered right at the center of Joaquin and centered upper level divergent pattern along with drop in wind shear of 5-10 knots currently and expected to drop more by 36 hours, Joaquin could continue to drop all the way down to 925mb before an eyewall replacement cycle. Also winds could reach 125-135 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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