TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yea, I've never been sold on a LF....but if it does, it will be nowhere near us. I'm not completely ruling out a landfall from anywhere from sc to nova scotia... Just so much consensus on Joaquin curling back west outside of Euro. Middle ground right now would be the brush track. Playing it conservative right now because I have no idea what which way to lean yet. Best bet is that SNE landfall is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yo! nice to hear from youSlowly entering winter mode. This is good training! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm not completely ruling out a landfall from anywhere from sc to nova scotia... Just so much consensus on Joaquin curling back west outside of Euro. Middle ground right now would be the brush track. Playing it conservative right now because I have no idea what which way to lean yet. Best bet is that SNE landfall is unlikely. I've ruled out sne lf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think a landfall along the SC/NC coastlines is most likely followed by a brush or out to sea tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think a landfall along the SC/NC coastlines is most likely followed by a brush or out to sea tracks. Agree, but not sure about SC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I've ruled out sne lf. Seems like a good bet. I just look at the blocking above and around us. 39F in Pittsburgh NH right now? Suppression. This would need to break just right to landfall up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah Ray, this never looked good for our SNE region getting a landfall given the intense block, remember the February 2010 events? Block was so intense, Baltimore and DC got crushed while we whiffed big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The western outliers have trended westward towards a South Central SC landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah Ray, this never looked good for our SNE region getting a landfall given the intense block, remember the February 2010 events? Block was so intense, Baltimore and DC got crushed while we whiffed big time. I drew that analogy earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Oh sorry Ray, I didn't see it. Joaquin looks like a cat three 120mph winds and a pressure of 949mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 @RyanBretonWX 9s10 seconds ago #Joaquin now a Category 3 hurricane, winds to 115 mph, pressure 951 mb!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 WTNT31 KNHC 010249TCPAT1BULLETINHURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1120151100 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015...JOAQUIN BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES TOWARDTHE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...23.8N 73.1WABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN SALVADORABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMASMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHESDISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin waslocated near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 73.1 West. Joaquin ismoving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this generalmotion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. A turntoward the northwest and north is forecast Thursday night or Friday.The center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions ofthe central Bahamas overnight and Thursday, and be near or overportions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday.Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicatethat maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening isforecast during the next day or so. Some fluctuations in intensityare possible Thursday night and Friday.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from thecenter and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles(220 km).The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissancedata is 951 mb (28.09 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of theCentral Bahamas by early Thursday morning. Winds are expected tofirst reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight,making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations toprotect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropicalstorm conditions are expected in the southeastern Bahamas beginningtonight. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of theNorthwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday.STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by asmuch as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in the Central Bahamasin areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normaltide levels is expected in the Northwest Bahamas within theHurricane Warning area, and 1 to 2 feet is expected in the SoutheastBahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large anddangerous waves.RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over thenorthwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas. Isolated maximumamounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. Thisrainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of theBahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portionsof the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. Theseswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currentconditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.$Forecaster Brown/Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Slowly entering winter mode. This is good training! Yeah, I hear you ! NAM brings it to NC/SC border.. no east shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010250 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 Joaquin has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours with the satellite presentation continuing to improve this evening. The eye has recently become apparent near the center of the very symmetric central dense overcast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has been investigating the hurricane this evening has measured peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt and 102 kt surface winds from the SFMR. These data support an initial intensity of 100 kt, making Joaquin the second major hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. NOTE: Communications problems have delayed the public release of the Air Force reconnaissance data. Joaquin continues to move slowly southwestward with an initial motion estimate of 220/5 kt. The hurricane is forecast to move slowly southwestward or west-southwestward for another 24 hours or so while it remains to the south of a narrow northeast to southwest oriented ridge. This ridge is expected to weaken by Friday as a trough deepens and cuts off over the southeastern United States. This should cause Joaquin to turn northward within 48 hours. The 18Z runs of the GFS and HWRF remain in general agreement with the 12Z UKMET and Canadian models moving Joaquin around the northeastern portion of the cut-off low and bring the hurricane inland over the Carolinas or mid-Atlantic states. The 12Z ECMWF remains the outlier by showing a track toward the northeast out to sea. The NHC forecast continues to follow the trend of the bulk of the guidance and takes Joaquin toward the U.S east coast. The NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is once again east of the multi-model consensus. The NOAA G-IV aircraft has recently completed its synoptic surveillance flight, and data collected during this mission should be assimilated into the 0000 UTC models, hopefully reducing the spread of the track guidance. The upper-level wind pattern over the hurricane is forecast by the global models to become even more conducive during the next couple of days. This favors additional intensification, with the only possible limiting factors being upwelling of cool SSTs beneath the slow-moving hurricane and eyewall cycles which could cause some fluctuations in intensity. By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear, dry air intrusion, and lower SSTs are expected to cause gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been significantly increased from the previous advisory primarily due to the higher initial intensity. The official forecast is between the lower statistical guidance and the higher HWRF during the first 36-48 hours, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM guidance after that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 To get a landfall anywhere south of NC (hell even directly off the coast of NC) is going to require a pretty freaking perfect interaction with the trough really. That's just what makes this so hard b/c so many tracks are still on the table, although I would be beyond shocked to see an OTS solution. I feel pretty confident we see a LF on the east coast...just not sure where. I wouldn't really rule out somewhere along MD or NJ and a part of me wonders if that is what will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 11pm EDT update, per NHC pressure down to 951mb, 115mph winds movement sw at 6mph. Also the new forecast shows a peak intensity of 140mph. I think it will be more 150-160mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 11pm EDT update, per NHC pressure down to 951mb, 115mph winds movement sw at 6mph. Also the new forecast shows a peak intensity of 140mph. I think it will be more 150-160mph. I'd like to see it in SC, or no further north than NC....get this in ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Latest satellite imagery on the floater imagery on the NHC site page shows that the cloud deck of Joaquin continues to organize in an upper level anticyclonic flow. This flow aloft supports the sustainment of cold cloud tops and deep convection unlike last night where the convection weakened. This won't happen tonight due to this upper level anticyclonic flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 WHat do you mean Ray? IN what ASAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 WHat do you mean Ray? IN what ASAP? As Soon As Possible...LF Less time to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 To get a landfall anywhere south of NC (hell even directly off the coast of NC) is going to require a pretty freaking perfect interaction with the trough really. That's just what makes this so hard b/c so many tracks are still on the table, although I would be beyond shocked to see an OTS solution. I feel pretty confident we see a LF on the east coast...just not sure where. I wouldn't really rule out somewhere along MD or NJ and a part of me wonders if that is what will happenYeah how many majors have we seen with a sharp hook left? Part of me is asking what would make such a scenario possible with little baroclinocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 OBX going to get crushed in that track. Imagine the tides if it were last weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC quite bullish on their intensity forecast. Taking it up to 140mph now. What a difference from this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Forecast is 100mph cat 2 at LF. Need faster LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 San Salvador Island is right in the path of this extremely dangerous hurricane. Not much on the island itself except for a resort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah for an intense storm at landfall need a NC or SC landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah how many majors have we seen with a sharp hook left? Part of me is asking what would make such a scenario possible with little baroclinocity. I mean it certainly is possible...you would want a pretty highly negatively tilted trough with the trough catching the system at the perfect time which sort of is happening on several pieces of guidance. Plus the upper-level steering currents (if we see a more easterly flow) would enhance that likelihood. Models sometimes just overdo these troughs that you always have to wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah San Salvador will get hit hard. Destroyed is too harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Impressive update-IT'S A BEAST. Time for a roadtrip! Thinking of chasing to as far as SC/NC (no further) Anyone want to meet half-way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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