JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I was asking a meteorlogist Don't you have paid access? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What if the Euro ENS have say 70% members with east coast hits up and down coast? Will that give confidence op is wrong? You already know the answer to this. Might give some credence to the op being wrong, but we don't toss. Enough members take it out to sea that you can't discount that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Dec 24th, 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Was gonna post same. Just because a track is the average of all guidance doesn't mean it is the most likely. In this case, this either gets captured early west or it gets fujiwaraed east. This also means that unfortunately for NHC, hedging with a mean track to the public may not be the most likely prediction as depicted, but I guess there's no easier way to convey possible impact with uncertainty. this is a good point as others have mentioned too. ' imo it is possible that to varying degrees the Euro is correct in regard to Ida / remnants 'tugging' Joaquin northeastward and the GFS / CMC / etc are correct in capturing Joaquin. its just a tough call to make with such divergent outcomes likely and a low probability of an 'in-between' solution (KACY - KACK landfall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pardon the interruption but if someone could answer why if the up the coast option is least likely then why has it been the track of choice (at least as far north as coastal NJ) according to the NHC up until now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pardon the interruption but if someone could answer why if the up the coast option is least likely then why has it been the track of choice (at least as days as coastal NJ) according to the NHC up until now? There wasn't the sans-Euro consensus that there is now until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pardon the interruption but if someone could answer why if the up the coast option is least likely then why has it been the track of choice (at least as far north as coastal NJ) according to the NHC up until now? Have you been to college? just asking because there's an adage employed by Animal House type students: "If you don't know the answer, always pick C" the idea there is that if you have the same amount of multiple guesses above and below that letter, the probabilities is a random guess would land on C. not sure if it works...but maybe the path of least regret was to pick a path straight down the middle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My thoughts: It is "only" Wednesday Euro might make slight adjustments west before this scoots OTS Other guidance will shift away from the NC landfall and march in step with the Euro over the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Have you been to college? just asking because there's an adage employed by Animal House type students: "If you don't know the answer, always pick C" the idea there is that if you have the same amount of multiple guesses above and below that letter, the probabilities is a random guess would land on C. not sure if it works...but maybe the path of least regret was to pick a path straight down the middle.. Ok. This is kind of what I suspected myself. I just wasn't sure if their decision making was ever done that way. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Have you been to college? just asking because there's an adage employed by Animal House type students: "If you don't know the answer, always pick C" the idea there is that if you have the same amount of multiple guesses above and below that letter, the probabilities is a random guess would land on C. not sure if it works...but maybe the path of least regret was to pick a path straight down the middle.. I always make the multiple choice answers on the quizzes I give equal NOT C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I always make the multiple choice answers on the quizzes I give equal NOT C @$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I agree Yea, I posted something to that effect simultaneously with him. Seems clear cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not liking the SW push towards the central Bahamas; close enough for me in S FL, will be happy when starts moving north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I would think that a SE/MA landfall would significantly increase the odds of potential hydro issues in the NE vs the OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Curious if any of the NOAA G-IV synoptic information or the extra rawinsonde data has been ingested by any of the models yet? Or if the US models have it already but the Euro does not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Probably no surprise given globals, but 18z tropical models. http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/modelsystem/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=11&display=googlemap&latestrun=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Probably no surprise given globals, but 18z tropical models. http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/modelsystem/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=11&display=googlemap&latestrun=1 Lots and lots of tweets with a media outlet graphic showing the NHC track, kind of scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Probably no surprise given globals, but 18z tropical models. http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/modelsystem/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=11&display=googlemap&latestrun=1 6 In the EURO camp. Looks like NAM is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Curious if any of the NOAA G-IV synoptic information or the extra rawinsonde data has been ingested by any of the models yet? Or if the US models have it already but the Euro does not? The models are using any extra data that is out there. This is not a case of the Euro having less information than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I always make the multiple choice answers on the quizzes I give equal NOT C ha ha, probably because of that reason - I was in college back before the turn of the Century... you know, when dino's roamed? It was a fresh and new sort of 'not really' cheating > 50% of all students engaged in... kind of like that play in the Playoffs last year between the Patriots and the current 0-3 Ravens (yeah, dig intended!), where they whined because the Patriots called off some guy they called eligible and replaced him with some other DB that was thus made 'under the radar eligible, ...effectively duping the other team's coach ...yadda yadda yadda, bounce ahead to the next season and I think the League imposed a new rule. heh, every year the League has to come up with a new rule to keep up with Bellicheck's deviant talent in finding loop-holds. But anyway, maybe back whence it wasn't as readily known that always picking C -- I read a study on it actually, and they found that it did enhance random guess percentages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I saw this brought up as well. Take a look out west. You have a s/w trough diving south and helping to slow or pull the trough west, out near the Pacific coast at hr 60. If that happens, then ridging over the Plains may develop and possibly slow down the cutoff trough over the SE that helps capture Joaquin. I mean talk about a complicated series of interactions. Not far fetched to think that the EURO is handling the west CONUS better...how often do we see that during the winter. My "outlandish OTS call from yesterday may yet verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ok. This is kind of what I suspected myself. I just wasn't sure if their decision making was ever done that way. Interesting Aahhhyeaah... I wouldn't run with that to the bank as policy - haha. I was being partial tongue in cheek there. Although the hidden point is clad, in that I don't think they really know. It may be coincidence they chose those previous track guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 6 In the EURO camp. Looks like NAM is one of them. 2 nams 1 lbar 1 baMD lol. The other two are gfs ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ha ha, probably because of that reason - I was in college back before the turn of the Century... you know, when dino's roamed? It was a fresh and new sort of 'not really' cheating > 50% of all students engaged in... kind of like that play in the Playoffs last year between the Patriots and the current 0-3 Ravens (yeah, dig intended!), where they whined because the Patriots called off some guy they called eligible and replaced him with some other DB that was thus made 'under the radar eligible, ...effectively duping the other team's coach ...yadda yadda yadda, bounce ahead to the next season and I think the League imposed a new rule. heh, every year the League has to come up with a new rule to keep up with Bellicheck's deviant talent in finding loop-holds. But anyway, maybe back whence it wasn't as readily known that always picking C -- I read a study on it actually, and they found that it did enhance random guess percentages. I wish to learn more about loop-holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wish to learn more about loop-holds. I seriously wondered how to spell that and thought, i don't care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wish to learn more about loop-holds. Bury thy face between the buns....between them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I seriously wondered how to spell that and thought, i don't care I hold you to a higher standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 6 In the EURO camp. Looks like NAM is one of them. Thats a hard consensus for a left turn, wow Euro is actually an extreme outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Thats a hard consensus for a left turn, wow Euro is actually an extreme outlier I think there is only one answer for a forecast right now, if you had to make one of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There's probably a 50/50 chance that Euro is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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