CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 21m21 minutes ago This 12z run from GFS is quite bit diff from prev in many places...didn't think it was particularly good from get go. yes, it's called 6 hrs later and ingesting RAOBs for a complicated pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z HWRF drops 20 mbs in the next 12 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Comparing 6z to 12z, 12z digs trough that captures Joaquin further south and looks better with block SE of Nova Scotia. Wild card seems to be interaction with Ida, but CMC and GFS aren't caring about it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Damn 20mb in the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Comparing 6z to 12z, 12z digs trough that captures Joaquin further south and looks better with block SE of Nova Scotia. Wild card seems to be interaction with Ida, but CMC and GFS aren't caring about it right now. What are your thoughts, if I may ask? Do you think we're honing in on the NC solution, or do you think that it's still too early to really get attached to any one depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What are your thoughts, if I may ask? Do you think we're honing in on the NC solution, or do you think that it's still too early to really get attached to any one depiction? What are your thoughts, if I may ask? Do you think we're honing in on the NC solution, or do you think that it's still too early to really get attached to any one depiction? I think I would like to see what euro does. It's getting tough to ignore that threat in NC, but these things are such where that if something is even slightly off...it means a huge difference in how this tracks. For now, I feel higher confidence in this posing less of a threat to SNE, but again...I would like to see the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think I would like to see what euro does. It's getting tough to ignore that threat in NC, but these things are such where that if something is even slightly off...it means a huge difference in how this tracks. For now, I feel higher confidence in this posing less of a threat to SNE, but again...I would like to see the euro. Thanks, the euro should (hopefully for mets) be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z HWRF drops 20 mbs in the next 12 hours... 12z HWRF drops 20 mbs in the next 12 hours... 940mb at 30hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Tropical models with that NE move Scooter mentioned say op runs prob not best choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Tropical models with that NE move Scooter mentioned say op runs prob not best choice You mean the ones that are centered on OBX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 #101 LakeEffectKing Posted 45 minutes ago "He tracks hurricanes blindfolded." 3,196 posts Joined November 12, 2010 Location:Liverpool, NY Very preliminary thought based on future conditions for Joaquin....I think he maxes out at 945ish pressure, and touches Cat. 4 status in a day or so....as for track...way too much uncertainty....especially with the potential redevelopment of Ida.... If LE King doesn't have a guess, it's probably not worth guessing yet. Reaching major out there early certainly would increase the stakes and ramp up the media coverage up and down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The HWRF starts chugging towards the coast late Friday night. Min pressure in the upper 920's and max surface winds at cat 3 strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You mean the ones that are centered on OBX?No the ones that shifted from there a bit farther north . It will be a true tropical system so it stands to reason the tropical models have a better handle than the globals. GFDL actually has the least error margin so far re: trackIMO landfall is going to shift north and end up NJ area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 No the ones that shifted from there a bit farther north . It will be a true tropical system so it stands to reason the tropical models have a better handle than the globals. GFDL actually has the least error margin so far re: track IMO landfall is going to shift north and end up NJ area The 6z GFDL landfalls in VA, and was virtually identical to its 0z run. Its 18z run yesterday took it into Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The HWRF starts chugging towards the coast late Friday night. Min pressure in the upper 920's and max surface winds at cat 3 strength. 926 at 54hr.. lets see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 6z GFDL landfalls in VA, and was virtually identical to its 0z run. Its 18z run yesterday took it into Long Island.Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yup How is that NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Tropical models with that NE move Scooter mentioned say op runs prob not best choice I honestly may 5 ppd you. Your posts have been horrific in this thread. Stop wishcasting and post something useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 No the ones that shifted from there a bit farther north . It will be a true tropical system so it stands to reason the tropical models have a better handle than the globals. GFDL actually has the least error margin so far re: track IMO landfall is going to shift north and end up NJ area If it LF's in NJ, what are the impacts up here? just rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If it LF's in NJ, what are the impacts up here? just rain?Some rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Some rain and wind. Surge will be an issue if a NJ Landfall this is with a NC Landfall Delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z GEFS have 3 members making landfall north of DE. Appears we are honing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Huh, pressure in the 920s? that's more typically high end category 4 pressure depth, so having winds held up in cat 3 is odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hopefully the EURO swings west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Huh, pressure in the 920s? that's more typically high end category 4 pressure depth, so having winds held up in cat 3 is odd HWRF usually does that.....exaggerated pressure depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hopefully the EURO swings west Watch it have Joaquin plowing into Mytrle Beach. Seriously though, with all the other models seemingly converging on a NC/VA Landfall, I'd be highly skeptical of it holding serve, or even offering any type of OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Watch it have Joaquin plowing into Mytrle Beach. Seriously though, with all the other models seemingly converging on a NC/VA Landfall, I'd be highly skeptical of it holding serve, or even offering any type of OTS solution. Well, the thing is it it's probably one or the other...and it isn't a large diff. If it hangs south longer, it doesn't get pulled into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I know for winter storms the euro comes out about 1320. What time can we expect to see its results for 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I know for winter storms the euro comes out about 1320. What time can we expect to see its results for 12z? Add 1 hour due to Daylight savings. so after 2pm EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 HWRF brings landfall just north of Hatteras. GFDL just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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