TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 the 0z euro ens definitely look well west on the mean to me. Haven't seen individual member plot. Tickles coast almost looks like noreaster track. Probably a decent spread on mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I can't help but think of Steve's windshield wipers comment... The EC OP is stubbornly on the east end of guidance, I have to wonder whether it shouldn't be completely discounted and a compromise isn't in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Very few canes have ever come ashore in VA..Similar to coast of Georgia. They just don't like the shape of the coastline..So it's probably somewhere north of ACY to NYC for LF as best guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Very few canes have ever come ashore in VA..Similar to coast of Georgia. They just don't like the shape of the coastline..So it's probably somewhere north of ACY to NYC for LF as best guessOr obx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Interesting speculation. I see that the storm did not fully merge with the digging closed low. If a similar scenario were to occur now, Joaquin could end up heading farther up the coast than the NC or VA landfall suggested by a lot of the 00Z guidance. This will depend a lot on how far west/southwest Joaquin moves before turning north or northeast. If not fully captured by the closed low expected to develop over the Southeast, it will have more opportunity to head farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS even keeps the PRE south of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Finally catching up. Should be a fun few days upcoming. Wild late week coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS even keeps the PRE south of SNE. Considering it was OTS all of yesterday..one shouldn't be worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Considering it was OTS all of yesterday..one shouldn't be worriedJust discussing it as another possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We need to see how it evolves today as it still is too early, but I think the consensus now is less of a issue for SNE..and an increased risk of significant impact to the MA coast right now. We'll see what today brings. Lots of things at play here including ex-Ida and how far SW Joaquin moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We need to see how it evolves today as it still is too early, but I think the consensus now is less of a issue for SNE..and an increased risk of significant impact to the MA coast right now. We'll see what today brings. Lots of things at play here including ex-Ida and how far SW Joaquin moves.Appears to be moving almost due south actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's all about the ULL over the Southeast. if that doesn't fully capture it..it can come farther north. Regardless. with the strong pressure gradient strong winds will be felt up and down the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 latest pass shows 972mb it seems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 latest pass shows 972mb it seems.. Pretty deep for a tropical storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 968mb first pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Power issues already in parts of CT. My hunch is folks are too focused on the potential of a cane and are missing the fact that real issues could happen from this morning going forward. An early autumn weekend chock full of events is about to be washed away in many areas. My friends at Eversource tell me that plans for another Sandy have been dusted off and are on the table. They are making no predictions but are alarmed at the possible scenarios of a strong tropical storm or Cat 1 cane making landfall anywhere from Jersey to Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's a cane just from looking at the sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is the PD I of canes. NBD for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well we also need to look at how the pattern north of Maine plays out as well. That weill help shift around that ridge being used to steer Joaquin. That evolution of that is quite different on the models. There are several important pieces here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is the PD I of canes. NBD for sne.You said you like to be objective and realistic so I can't see how with the NHC low certainty forecast you can make that declaration yet. I'm aware of what your point is but it's safe to say it's pretty damn uncertain of what will happen, likely not an sne hit right now, but we can't say NBD yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well we also need to look at how the pattern north of Maine plays out as well. That weill help shift around that ridge being used to steer Joaquin. That evolution of that is quite different on the models. There are several important pieces here.The trof, remnants of ida, quebec blocking, atlantic high, all kinds of garbage mixed into this convulated mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Cat 1, 75 mph, 971 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Officially cat 1 Joaquin at 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Jay in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is the PD I of canes. NBD for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Some need to prepare for the idea that it is quite possible the effects are not very interesting in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Some need to prepare for the idea that it is quite possible the effects are not very interesting in SNE. Yup. That's looking more and more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pretty set in stone if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Some need to prepare for the idea that it is quite possible the effects are not very interesting in SNE. lol...so true. I'm already preparing for the idea that it might not be very interesting even in Eastern PA. If the latest model tracks (Euro not withstanding) end up verifying. It seems that on most of the morning models the big qpf remains in Virginia, and parts of Eastern PA will be lucky to get 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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