Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 "At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential impacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steering currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent manner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes are possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States." is this a quote from someone? should probably state the source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Don't sell it short...could easily be a 7 I guess that would be the Spinal Tap storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 is this a quote from someone? should probably state the source. It's from the NHC disco above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 is this a quote from someone? should probably state the source. It's from the NHC disco above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 is this a quote from someone? should probably state the source. It's in the thread - I'm IN the source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z GFDL may be passe but it did correct way back left after some attempt to side with those odd-ball Euro runs.. Shows a square -on strike into LI/SNE. NHC looks like a Bob deal extrapolated out.....but that is likely a provisional solution, as they adjust westward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NHC looks like a Bob deal extrapolated out.....but that is likely a provisional solution, as they adjust westward... I agree, it's pretty understandable why they'd want to wait until tomorrow to see if there's still a strong consensus. No need to slam the cone into NC/the Delmarva at the first sign of trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The NHC 11pm disco was really perfect. Right down even to the map. Shout out to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Wow, shameless anyone who says I'm shameless is shameless themselves and calls what I say wishcastin, well to all those that call it a weak TS or category one at peak, are you not shameless too for downplaying a tropical cyclone's strength, when it could easily become a much stronger hurricane? Why is downcasting much more appreciated than saying a category five is possible. When I say possible I really mean 5%, don't you get it? I am as smart as most of you non mets on this forum, I just get excited for rare events that aren't rare any more, I mean we all thought Sandy was a once in some sort of year event, and now Joaquin could do the same thing. It probably isn't as rare as you think it is. I'm just a person, I hear your comments and I read on here thinking I'm getting good feedback and back and forth discussions on why or why not something could happen. But posts like that calling me wishcasting and shameless needs to go away, I don't care if you are kidding, this isn't the place for it. I said a category four was likely because I see the warmth of the ocean waters and I see a much more favorable environment for intensification like the NHC said in their discussion at 11pm advisory. So what if they are conservative, I'm bullish, take it for what it's worth. Look at my tendencies and others and make a formed opinion on what both sides are saying. Why can't I have my own opinion like everyone else without being called out on it, before something has happened to prove if I am right or wrong? THat is my rant. Not exactly ... they qualified their intensity discussion with, "These conditions favor intensification and the NHC forecast calls for Joaquin to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. The upper-level winds are shown by the global models to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as an upper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additional strengthening is anticipated." That does not really suggest upper tier intensity, it suggest unknown. I will add, however, that intensity forecasting is one of the hardest calls to make. But, you have to understand that polishing your ballz into a bright shiny brass and boldly going the distance, is a powder keg and tends to breed contempt, particularly when many users and Mets alike on this forum are skilled enough to see that those upper ranks of intensity have some hurdles to overcome. Could it, sure - but that really isn't "likely" as you say. I think, also, there's a bit of air of over-production in your tone; that's just constructive criticism. It's not slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NHC looks like a Bob deal extrapolated out.....but that is likely a provisional solution, as they adjust westward... I've been Bob-ian on this one for a long while to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Oh I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's in the thread - I'm IN the source. ok missed it.. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Harv said it could become major, and Carolinas or VA looking most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Wow, shameless anyone who says I'm shameless is shameless themselves and calls what I say wishcastin, well to all those that call it a weak TS or category one at peak, are you not shameless too for downplaying a tropical cyclone's strength, when it could easily become a much stronger hurricane? Why is downcasting much more appreciated than saying a category five is possible. When I say possible I really mean 5%, don't you get it? I am as smart as most of you non mets on this forum, I just get excited for rare events that aren't rare any more, I mean we all thought Sandy was a once in some sort of year event, and now Joaquin could do the same thing. It probably isn't as rare as you think it is. I'm just a person, I hear your comments and I read on here thinking I'm getting good feedback and back and forth discussions on why or why not something could happen. But posts like that calling me wishcasting and shameless needs to go away, I don't care if you are kidding, this isn't the place for it. I said a category four was likely because I see the warmth of the ocean waters and I see a much more favorable environment for intensification like the NHC said in their discussion at 11pm advisory. So what if they are conservative, I'm bullish, take it for what it's worth. Look at my tendencies and others and make a formed opinion on what both sides are saying. Why can't I have my own opinion like everyone else without being called out on it, before something has happened to prove if I am right or wrong? THat is my rant. A fine rant. The reason most err on the side of caution, or "downplay" strength, as you say, is because the vast majority of storms tend to be on the weaker side. That's simple probability. Citing your remark about a likely cat four landfall in NC, a cursory survey of history suggests that outcome is highly improbable. To my knowledge, Hazel is the only cat four to strike NC in October. It's fine to dream up fanciful scenarios for these systems and get excited about them, i'm as guilty as the next guy, but cluttering up the thread with prognostications of doomsday and calls to prayer seems unnecessary. And hey, if your prediction comes to fruition and that zero-spot-whatever chance plays out -- I'll eat my words. I've done so before and have found it a wholesome diet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I understand where you are coming from Tip, and I appreciate it. I am a little overamped already with this system, I just see the potential in everything, even if I do go high, that is a symptom of my inner child. I wasn't able to pursue my dream of becoming a meteorologist so I live through this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I understand where you are coming from Tip, and I appreciate it. I am a little overamped already with this system, I just see the potential in everything, even if I do go high, that is a symptom of my inner child. I wasn't able to pursue my dream of becoming a meteorologist so I live through this forum. Join the club.....too dumb for that math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ok missed it.. thanks it's all good - I was just after getting people to really read that very important statement. Not that you didn't ... just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Doesn't look lie we see the sun for a week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well Ray, I didn't pursue due to my mental health. I could have pursued it, but instead joined the Air Force and then got discharged for mental health reasons, it wasn't helping with the stressful environment, so I live at home now, paying rent and getting a disability check every month from the VA and SS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 it's all good - I was just after getting people to really read that very important statement. Not that you didn't ... just sayin' I admittedly missed the full context of it until you re-posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My first log-in since March. As 40/70 said Harv says right now a NC/VA threat but at least Interesting from a S. Coast perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I understand where you are coming from Tip, and I appreciate it. I am a little overamped already with this system, I just see the potential in everything, even if I do go high, that is a symptom of my inner child. I wasn't able to pursue my dream of becoming a meteorologist so I live through this forum. If it is any help .. just think about Sandy and her/his impact as a Category 1 foisted W amid a huge easterly anomaly, and all the damage and excitement that cause; does one really need to push a Cat 4 to get that same fever pitch. No. Just to help put things into perspective and enjoy ... I tell you what, to get a "hook" scenario even as a possibility, in so many years - geez folks should be schittin' panties anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I admittedly missed the full context of it until you re-posted it. Word! and folks should really take nothing away in terms of location tonight. I mean, just don't. Even Harv, who has a P.H.D in ...existence at this point, he's only saying most likely. I can tell you, he knows full well that a different series of model suites shifting things around, changes that "likeliness" with extreme rapidity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That is true Tip, I thought of that, that a category one hurricane can do a lot of damage, but remember Sandy was at least 945mb of pressure at landfall, that is very low for a NJ landfalling cyclone. Even if it was an extra-tropical cyclone. I think Joaquin has a chance to be a major hurricane as well, it has more going for him than Sandy did even in the Caribbean Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Tip do you think Joaquin is losing his convection strength due to the DMIN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A fine rant. The reason most err on the side of caution, or "downplay" strength, as you say, is because the vast majority of storms tend to be on the weaker side. That's simple probability. Citing your remark about a likely cat four landfall in NC, a cursory survey of history suggests that outcome is highly improbable. To my knowledge, Hazel is the only cat four to strike NC in October. It's fine to dream up fanciful scenarios for these systems and get excited about them, i'm as guilty as the next guy, but cluttering up the thread with prognostications of doomsday and calls to prayer seems unnecessary. And hey, if your prediction comes to fruition and that zero-spot-whatever chance plays out -- I'll eat my words. I've done so before and have found it a wholesome diet. Actually its the only known Cat 4 in history to hit NC......this setup worries us a bit the OBX have taken a beating over the last week and even if it went exactly where the NHC has it going it would be really bad out there, if it did something more like the HWRF and put the OBX on the eastern side of the center the OBX will be trashed maybe worse than they have in many dozens of years..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Have the 00z GFDL and HWRF updated yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Join the club.....too dumb for that math. LOL but so true, exactly why I picked comm, and towson didn't offer met. Suprising for a state school of its size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Have the 00z GFDL and HWRF updated yet? I have confidence that the many weenies on my twitter feed will have it to the second. I'll post if I see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Through 36 hours it appears the 00z GFS makes landfall in the central Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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