40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Real clustering in the cat 1 camp for max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Maybe a bit of a NE tug, but still decent consensus on some of the tropical models. These are the "early" runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We'll see. Intuitively, a more powerful system is less susceptible to capture, and more prone to poleward advancement, and ultimately take on an easterly component. Were that to happen, OTS would probably still be a better bet Two lines of thinking on that lol. A stronger, larger hurricane increases the strength of the downstream ridge and likewise the upstream trough through diabatic heat release. Same deal of miller As coming northwest of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Maybe a bit of a NE tug, but still decent consensus on some of the tropical models. These are the "early" runs. 11L_tracks_latest.png Many of the tropical models bring this up to cat 3 as well now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wouldn't let my guard down up here completely, though....even though there is a solid cluster well south, a slight deviation to the north east has drastic ramifications on LF locale because of orientation of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If it veers 12 hours late, we go from NC to almost s Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wouldn't let my guard down up here completely, though....even though there is a solid cluster well south, a slight deviation to the north east has drastic ramifications on LF locale because of orientation of the coast. I wouldn't let my guard down up here completely, though....even though there is a solid cluster well south, a slight deviation to the north east has drastic ramifications on LF locale because of orientation of the coast. Yeah that's how I feel right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 With a very low probability of this affecting us here in SNE, and now some of the models having the PRE rains pretty much miss us, maybe we can salvage the weekend after all?? I wouldn't mind a dry cool weekend myself, especially after picking up a lil over 2 inches of rain with this first event...a good dowsing. Like a poster earlier said, give the Mid Atlantic the Hurricane, and give us a nice snowy winter, that's a great compromise also imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 With a very low probability of this affecting us here in SNE, and now some of the models having the PRE rains pretty much miss us, maybe we can salvage the weekend after all?? I wouldn't mind a dry cool weekend myself, especially after picking up a lil over 2 inches of rain with this first event...a good dowsing. Like a poster earlier said, give the Mid Atlantic the Hurricane, and give us a nice snowy winter, that's a great compromise also imo. Don't fall into the trap of viewing a tropical system as a point on a map. Even if this makes landfall in the Delmarva or a bit further south, the wave action will have a significant impact probably all the way to the Cape. The precip shield is also likely to graze us, even in that circumstance, and almost certainly the remnant rains will. The biggest killer in tropical systems is flooding and we don't need to have even a full on hurricane to do a lot of damage up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Don't fall into the trap of viewing a tropical system as a point on a map. Even if this makes landfall in the Delmarva or a bit further south, the wave action will have a significant impact probably all the way to the Cape. The precip shield is also likely to graze us, even in that circumstance, and almost certainly the remnant rains will. The biggest killer in tropical systems is flooding and we don't need to have even a full on hurricane to do a lot of damage up here. If it camps out down there, the rain won't even be a big deal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If it camps out down there, the rain won't even be a big deal here. True, but the jury is still out on that. Eventually the thing has to make its way poleward and become all Coriolisi-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If it camps out down there, the rain won't even be a big deal here. It'll be some nasty weather, but yeah... we probably wouldn't have too much to worry about from an occluded post-tropical system that's been filling for two or three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 True, but the jury is still out on that. Eventually the thing has to make its way poleward and become all Coriolisi-like. I'm not calling for that, but rather citing a scenario in which ALL impact up here would be minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Don't fall into the trap of viewing a tropical system as a point on a map. Even if this makes landfall in the Delmarva or a bit further south, the wave action will have a significant impact probably all the way to the Cape. The precip shield is also likely to graze us, even in that circumstance, and almost certainly the remnant rains will. The biggest killer in tropical systems is flooding and we don't need to have even a full on hurricane to do a lot of damage up here. Oh I understand that, and your point. But most are hedging toward a non event/very lil impact up this way, and I have to agree with them on that. If this thing goes into Virginia/Delmarva area, we aren't getting hit with any precip from it directly. Sure the remnant rains can get us later, but that's not that big of a deal, and that would most likely be early next week if the remnants hit us. Sure surf can be very rough, but other than that, it isn't a big impact up this way. Now, if the storm hits further north, say Central N.J. or so, now we could see some impacts. I was just hoping, that if this thing stays way south, maybe we get some decent weather for the weekend, which looked to be a washout previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My 2 cents. How many times have we seen blocking over exaggerated on models in the extended range only to come in less aggressive in the short term. While models may now be pointing towards the NC area right now, I would not put off a hit further N even up into the NJ area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My 2 cents. How many times have we seen blocking over exaggerated on models in the extended range only to come in less aggressive in the short term. While models may now be pointing towards the NC area right now, I would not put off a hit further N even up into the NJ area.Of course two storms are never the same but we had a similar situation with Sandy and models ultimately correcting further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My 2 cents. How many times have we seen blocking over exaggerated on models in the extended range only to come in less aggressive in the short term. While models may now be pointing towards the NC area right now, I would not put off a hit further N even up into the NJ area. Well, the cone is def. points north...it isn't going south of NC imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well, the cone is def. points north...it isn't going south of NC imo. Correct. I have no problem with the NHC cone. I'm strictly referring to modeling right now and how we see things play out. I fell we'll see a more northward trend on the models in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Correct. I have no problem with the NHC cone. I'm strictly referring to modeling right now and how we see things play out. I fell we'll see a more northward trend on the models in the next couple days. I think a worst case scenario is a NJ LF. Give the system ample time to weaken, and yet still relatively minimal impact here. I'd like either NC of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think it's funny how no matter what model or source of data that is a predictive measure, and no matter what cycle is the release of those sources, ...their products always "bend"/"avoid"/"wend" their solutions safely away from SNE that's a helluva undertaking in a system supposedly guided by fractals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What we can rule out is a devastating New England hurricane. Even if this gets up to a Cat 3 it is not going to be yanked up the coast at 60mph aka 1938. So it will be weakening even if it came in on a SE to NW trajectory into LI. Leftover wind, rain etc. Thing is this is only Wednesday and the track could come in further north and get pre's into New England. I'm just happy with my 4" of liquid this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 In addition to what I just stated above .... ...yet, NHC is left to pick up the pieces because though the avoidance weirdness is in play, the mean suggests this: 120H 05/0600Z 37.0N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH for the D5 position. The preceding position was 33 N, so it gains 4 deg of latitude... and using that for the extrapolated 126 is pretty much pegged on Springfield Mass as a cosmic lawn-mower. No model has that. In summation that is what we call, 'take a guess' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'd love to finally experience a legit hurricane. Last one of any note was Gloria 30 years ago this very month. Preferably not a major though as I'm also a property owner like many on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'd love to finally experience a legit hurricane. Last one of any note was Gloria 30 years ago this very month. Preferably not a major though as I'm also a property owner like many on this board Bob sucked for 90% of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pretty cool as well as interesting Eric Webb @webberweather 500mb composite of storms that hit mid-Atlantic/New England from the SE &/or @ an oblique angle vs 144hr EPS forecast @webberweather Definitely some big dogs in that composite. Chesapeake-Potomac (1933), Long Island Express (38), Isabel (2003), Sandy (2012) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Bob, sucked for 90% of us. Exactly that was a complete non factor for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Wow, that is a striking resemblance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What we can rule out is a devastating New England hurricane. Even if this gets up to a Cat 3 it is not going to be yanked up the coast at 60mph aka 1938. So it will be weakening even if it came in on a SE to NW trajectory into LI. Leftover wind, rain etc. Thing is this is only Wednesday and the track could come in further north and get pre's into New England. I'm just happy with my 4" of liquid this AM Exactly why my preference is for a NC LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 11am update: 80mph, 971mb, moving sw-6mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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