ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That's a function of time And area...PREs affect a larger area than a direct landfall. The chance of a direct landfall on the south coast is probably pretty small, but it obviously needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 By far the best chance of any impact from the system is the PRE. Definitely. I mean at this stage it would seem pretty unlikely that doesn't occur. Just a question of what areas are hit harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 And area...PREs affect a larger area than a direct landfall. The chance of a direct landfall on the south coast is probably pretty small, but it obviously needs to be watched.the amount of rain could be higher than pre and as extensive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Joaquin is getting that ominous look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Joaquin is getting that ominous look. No doubt in my mind that it's probably a 75-80 mph cane shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Kind of weird local mets are talking too much about the storm much. Looking very formidable right now http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201511_sat_1.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Raw T# is at 4.0 for Joaquin, the initial loss in intensity of convection has dropped that number a bit, however the Final T# is 2.9 and the adjusted T# is 3.0, so that is going upwards. He is likely in the midst of diurnal minimum which is impacting his convection strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Satellite imagery suggests Joaquin is really well organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Tropical models really bring it into NC. Tough to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Tropical models really bring it into NC. Tough to ignore. I posted on FB a couple of hrs ago that NC was starting to look most likely. That is my call at the moment. May be a devestating hit. We all know that it only takes one to take a season from craptacular catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Nary a recurve among any of the members. Nice block! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A cluster start it out to sea, then hooks back. My old stomping grounds in Camp Lejune best be battening down the hatches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If NC landfall becomes more and more of a reality, I pray for them, they will likely see a four coming at them from the southeast, bad for the Outer Banks, large storm surge, and a heck a lot of wind, be on the news for days as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A four? Put the beers down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If NC landfall becomes more and more of a reality, I pray for them, they will likely see a four coming at them from the southeast, bad for the Outer Banks, large storm surge, and a heck a lot of wind, be on the news for days as well. Even if it became a four, EWRC's would dictate strength at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A four? Put the beers down. I'd say a reasonable goal would be a 2. He said 5 earlier, so he's learning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I said could be a four, I would put my stocks into a two or three, but they need to be prepared for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If NC landfall becomes more and more of a reality, I pray for them, they will likely see a four coming at them from the southeast, bad for the Outer Banks, large storm surge, and a heck a lot of wind, be on the news for days as well. I love the enthusiasm, but pump the brakes a little with the hyperbole, will ya? It's far from being a "likely" cat four at landfall, nor is it likely to make a run at five, as you suggested earlier. I could see it become major perhaps-it's a really tenacious circulation-but let's not immediately skew towards the extreme end of the envelope. The sorts of fat tails you're bringing up don't happen often for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If NC landfall becomes more and more of a reality, I pray for them, they will likely see a four coming at them from the southeast, bad for the Outer Banks, large storm surge, and a heck a lot of wind, be on the news for days as well. Feigning empathy doesn't make your wishcasting any less shameless, you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 70 mph TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1120151100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to become betterorganized this evening. The low-level center is located within thenorthwestern portion of the deep convection and the outflow hascontinued to expand over the northern semicircle, which suggeststhat the shear continues to decrease. The latest satelliteintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 or 55 kt on theDvorak scale. Based on the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data andthe continued increase in organization this evening, the initialwind speed has been raised to 60 kt. Joaquin is forecast to be overwarm water and in an increasingly favorable upper-level wind patternduring the next day or so. These conditions favor intensificationand the NHC forecast calls for Joaquin to become a hurricane withinthe next 12 hours. The upper-level winds are shown by the globalmodels to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as anupper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additionalstrengthening is anticipated. The new NHC forecast is a bithigher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCNintensity consensus aid. It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the nextfew days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative.Joaquin is moving west-southwestward at about 5 kt. This generalmotion is forecast to continue during the next 24-36 hours while thecyclone remains to the southwest of a weak mid-level ridge. Duringthis time, the center of Joaquin is forecast to move near or overportions of the Central Bahamas. After 48 hours, a deepening mid-to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States isexpected to cause a turn toward the north or north-northeast with anincrease in forward speed. There remains large spread in theguidance at days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF showing a northeastwardmotion toward Bermuda. Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS shifted significantlywestward and is close to the UKMET and HWRF, which are along thewestern edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has beenshifted westward, but it is not as far west as the multi-modelconsensus. The new track is fairly close to the ECMWF-Ensemble Mean.The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for theCentral Bahamas. Additional watches or warnings may be requiredearly Wednesday.At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potentialimpacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steeringcurrents are complex and are not being handled in a consistentmanner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes arepossible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any,Joaquin will have on the United States.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH12H 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH36H 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH48H 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH72H 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH96H 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH120H 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I really like their intensity forecast. My guess was cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 "At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential impacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steeringcurrents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent manner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes arepossible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Big boy wave action, with arrows pointing at recently re-built areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Wow, it's definitely getting serious. Cat 2 conservative... It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the nextfew days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH12H 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH36H 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH48H 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH72H 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH96H 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH120H 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I really like their intensity forecast. My guess was cat 2. Yeah conservative don't see a reason to forecast anything stronger yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z GFDL may be passe but it did correct way back left after some attempt to side with those odd-ball Euro runs.. Shows a square -on strike into LI/SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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