CT Valley Snowman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I concur that we have a Cane at 11 PM. I really don't have a good feel for the track right now. You can argue several scenarios with suttle differences with how the models are depicting the upper air pattern and environment surrounding Juaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Who cares. Post anyway. I like when your wrong because it usually means we're getting a storm. Were you here last winter?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 00z early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Were you here last winter?? Your outlook was great. You had one foot out the door at one point. And then "it" happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Your outlook was great. You had one foot out the door at one point. And then "it" happened. No I didn't. I had some venting melts, but I never waivered. Scott will vouch for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 No I didn't. I had some venting melts, but I never waivered. Scott will vouch for that. You never bailed off the wagon I know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Another 00z early look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm not negative, I'm realistic and objective. I'm also right more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That is some ominous data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 TBH, I am rooting for a NC LF for the simple fact that that is most intense solution imo.....LF coincides with the duration of the favorable environment window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like as of 9pm tonight we are undeniably trending closer to an east coast landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 TBH, I am rooting for a NC LF for the simple fact that that is most intense solution imo.....LF coincides with the duration of the favorable environment window. That would be a hideous solution for the VA Tidewater. They are exceptionally vulnerable to storm surge flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That would be a hideous solution for the VA Tidewater. They are exceptionally vulnerable to storm surge flooding. The only place I'm not a fan of hideous is at the bar, and that is only bc my drinking days are over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 TBH, I am rooting for a NC LF for the simple fact that that is most intense solution imo.....LF coincides with the duration of the favorable environment window. Wonder if it can capture, speed up, and really smoke us. Wouldn't have the time to weaken. It's certainly in the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Wonder if it can capture, speed up, and really smoke us. Wouldn't have the time to weaken. It's certainly in the realm of possibilities.A fast mover is disaster city for us here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Another 00z early look I'm assuming the one out to sea is statistical? But wow this is really getting interesting. I think we are good to see a major with the record oceanic heat content. This is it game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I concur that we have a Cane at 11 PM. I really don't have a good feel for the track right now. You can argue several scenarios with suttle differences with how the models are depicting the upper air pattern and environment surrounding Juaquin. 1000% agreed. This is exactly it. until a better handle is had with exactly how the pattern will evolve it will be very difficult to really pinpoint an exact track. However, what we can do is give higher or lesser credence to possible tracks. At this juncture, I would put an OTS track as having less credence. There is going to be so much going on meteorologically these next few days it will be very tough on the models...you have a trough to our west which is going to be developing and shaping, you have a blocking high to the north, ridging out to the east and also smaller-scale features going on within the tropical system itself...not to mention on the synoptic level a cold front and other features. Regardless of track along the coast or strength of the system, if/when it phases with the trough and interacts with the cold front it's going to produce some big weather for someone, somewhere...just a matter of what those impacts are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm assuming the one out to sea is statistical? But wow this is really getting interesting. I think we are good to see a major with the record oceanic heat content. This is it game time I'm moderately aroused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Joaquin rises like a Phoenix at 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A fast mover is disaster city for us here especially if we're looking at the stronger end of the wind scenario. Faster may mean less rain but notsomuch for winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Joaquin rises like a Phoenix at 11pm.Kevin won't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Kevin won't get itFee-nix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Kevin won't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 there even appears to be a primitive eye ... It may be just in the mid lvl, but multiple channels offer suggestion - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Kevin won't get it Kevin doesn't get much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That guidance is just some early stuff...not helping a ton from 18z other than showing that type of track. However, it's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 By far the best chance of any impact from the system is the PRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 By far the best chance of any impact from the system is the PRE. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 there even appears to be a primitive eye ... It may be just in the mid lvl, but multiple channels offer suggestion -man EMs from NC to Mass are on edge. Pre rains and week of erosion have raised the stakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 By far the best chance of any impact from the system is the PRE.That's a function of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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