Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

[CAPE]

I tried forever.  There's very little that isn't tied up in one of the developments.  There's one out there that have a monthly HOA of  $330.

 

I finally bought some land on the lake at Mt. Storm, about 15 miles from Davis.  3400 ft.

Oh nice. Now you can build your cabin.

[T. August]

I tried forever.  There's very little that isn't tied up in one of the developments.  There's one out there that have a monthly HOA of  $330.

 

I finally bought some land on the lake at Mt. Storm, about 15 miles from Davis.  3400 ft.

Sweet. Put a cam up there so you can enjoy the beautiful snow falling on your TV screen while you look out your window at green, soggy lawns.

 

WSW on one property, FFW at another.

[mappy]

Our elevation data from the recent survey shows Montgomery County's highest elevation is ~880 ft. ASL in Cedar Grove, about 1 mile southwest of Damascus.  The difference between upcounty and downcounty snowfall is incredible in the late fall and early spring.  During the pre-Thanksgiving snow last year, Damascus was just cracking warning-criteria snowfall while downcounty was just white rain.We're really happy LWX sub-divided the county into two separate zones because of the stark elevation contrast.

 

they should have done it years ago -- it has been working out great for Baltimore county (prior to the new line) for years. Areas alone the PA line would be getting snow and schools would be closed, while the Towson area was all rain. 

[Eskimo Joe]

they should have done it years ago -- it has been working out great for Baltimore county (prior to the new line) for years. Areas alone the PA line would be getting snow and schools would be closed, while the Towson area was all rain. 

Agreed.  NWS is making some real strides thanks to their new Decision Support Services program and outreach to the county public DOTs / OEM staff.  

[mattie g]

OK...let's see if we can get talking a little bit.

Over/unders for this year:

IAD: 17"

BWI: 15"

DCA: 10"

Despite my generally pessimistic take on all things winter around here, I think we could go relatively big this year if a couple things fall into place. That said, I expect plenty of cool rainers and low snow totals overall. Maybe 75/25 that we get a crappy winter, but the upside potential is really high. I know you've all been anxiously waiting for me to lay my cards out, so there it is.

Obviously, a lot of the players outside of Nino likely won't show their hands for another couple months, but even I, a warm lover, am ready to start really thinking about winter.

[Fozz]

OK...let's see if we can get talking a little bit.

Over/unders for this year:

IAD: 17"

BWI: 15"

DCA: 10"

Despite my generally pessimistic take on all things winter around here, I think we could go relatively big this year if a couple things fall into place. That said, I expect plenty of cool rainers and low snow totals overall. Maybe 75/25 that we get a crappy winter, but the upside potential is really high. I know you've all been anxiously waiting for me to lay my cards out, so there it is.

Obviously, a lot of the players outside of Nino likely won't show their hands for another couple months, but even I, a warm lover, am ready to start really thinking about winter.

 

Sounds just like my thinking... anything that resembles 97-98 is a huge, huge red flag IMO when it comes to snow. But I agree about the upside too if things work out well.

 

Unlike last year, I'm keeping expectations low. Probably a good winter to head out to Wisp

[WVclimo]

OK...let's see if we can get talking a little bit.

Over/unders for this year:

IAD: 17"

BWI: 15"

DCA: 10"

Despite my generally pessimistic take on all things winter around here, I think we could go relatively big this year if a couple things fall into place. That said, I expect plenty of cool rainers and low snow totals overall. Maybe 75/25 that we get a crappy winter, but the upside potential is really high. I know you've all been anxiously waiting for me to lay my cards out, so there it is.

Obviously, a lot of the players outside of Nino likely won't show their hands for another couple months, but even I, a warm lover, am ready to start really thinking about winter.

I think your numbers look good... for the mid-February MECS . Might be the only snow storm of the season, though.

[WxUSAF]

OK...let's see if we can get talking a little bit.

Over/unders for this year:

IAD: 17"

BWI: 15"

DCA: 10"

Despite my generally pessimistic take on all things winter around here, I think we could go relatively big this year if a couple things fall into place. That said, I expect plenty of cool rainers and low snow totals overall. Maybe 75/25 that we get a crappy winter, but the upside potential is really high. I know you've all been anxiously waiting for me to lay my cards out, so there it is.

Obviously, a lot of the players outside of Nino likely won't show their hands for another couple months, but even I, a warm lover, am ready to start really thinking about winter.

I think that's pretty reasonable.  I agree that there's probably going to be a lot of 40F rain, but also KU potential is probably above normal.  I could see us getting climo+ snow out of only 2-3 events.  Doubt it will be a good winter if you like long-term snowcover.  But it's all a wag right now anyway.  

[mappy]

Was just having this convo with my husband earlier. I told him it could be a milder winter but with a few bigger snow falls versus nickel and dime events all winter long.

[WxUSAF]

Was just having this convo with my husband earlier. I told him it could be a milder winter but with a few bigger snow falls versus nickel and dime events all winter long.

For people who've asked me so far, I've mostly been telling them lots of precipitation is likely.  I don't think you can say much about temps yet, but climo+ precip is a pretty good call at this range right now.  

[mattie g]

I think that's pretty reasonable. I agree that there's probably going to be a lot of 40F rain, but also KU potential is probably above normal. I could see us getting climo+ snow out of only 2-3 events. Doubt it will be a good winter if you like long-term snowcover. But it's all a wag right now anyway.

Yup. If we get hit flush, then it wouldn't surprise me one bit if 16" of paste gets washed away by a runner five days later. By the same token, I wouldn't be surprised if that 16" was instead 3" to slop/rain near the cities, with higher elevations inland getting smacked.

It's definitely a WAG right now. Lots of precip seems to be a near-lock, but blocking/GOA/temps are the wildcard.

I expect nothing of note until late-January, at the earliest. If we can squeeze in a few inches near Christmas, then score (relatively) big over a few weeks from, say, January 20-February 20 (nothing later than that, thanks!), then I'll call it a big win.

[WxUSAF]

Backloaded winter is certainly a Nino trend.  If I was Jonjon, I would be stockpiling food and firewood already.  A lot of those 40F rainers for us will probably be 24" for him. 

[mattie g]

I think your numbers look good... for the mid-February MECS . Might be the only snow storm of the season, though.

Wouldn't be terribly surprising. Maybe a few inches here and there before the end of January, then a flip to a booming pattern for a few weeks, an East Coast-wide KU, and winter's over.

[Lowershoresadness]

be careful this winter for you guys on the western shore. godzilla is coming and he's hungry

 

[CAPE]

Backloaded winter is certainly a Nino trend.  If I was Jonjon, I would be stockpiling food and firewood already.  A lot of those 40F rainers for us will probably be 24" for him. 

250" of snow fell in general for the Canaan Valley during the winter of 2009-10 I believe. 300" is not out of the question for the upcoming winter.

[mitchnick]

As much as I expect to whining come winter, marginal events are really fun so long as I can get on the cold side eventually. And they can result in the best kind of busts. That said, I think consensus expressed today with a back loaded winter seems like a lock (assuming we see a winter and not a 97/98 redux.) Big question is do we see a fluke in December ala 02 & 09. Most lr modeling suggests "no", but we can dream.

[Eskimo Joe]

OK...let's see if we can get talking a little bit.

Over/unders for this year:

IAD: 17"

BWI: 15"

DCA: 10"

Despite my generally pessimistic take on all things winter around here, I think we could go relatively big this year if a couple things fall into place. That said, I expect plenty of cool rainers and low snow totals overall. Maybe 75/25 that we get a crappy winter, but the upside potential is really high. I know you've all been anxiously waiting for me to lay my cards out, so there it is.

Obviously, a lot of the players outside of Nino likely won't show their hands for another couple months, but even I, a warm lover, am ready to start really thinking about winter.

Blocking never develops in time and we torch.

IAD: 10"

BWI: 8"

DCA: 4"

[Fozz]

For people who've asked me so far, I've mostly been telling them lots of precipitation is likely.  I don't think you can say much about temps yet, but climo+ precip is a pretty good call at this range right now.  

 

I always tell people that El Nino winters are "stormy", but I don't specify any further.

[CAPE]

Almost time to start monitoring the SAI. 

[mattie g]

I think you're going to turn out alright on those numbers. Plenty of precip, chances for a KU on the back end, and we straddle the line of abject despair most of the way.

If we're getting slop to rain as others cash in, I'm just gonna put in my request for a continental blowtorch all the way through lol.

I'm down with that!

[mappy]

For people who've asked me so far, I've mostly been telling them lots of precipitation is likely. I don't think you can say much about temps yet, but climo+ precip is a pretty good call at this range right now.

Fair enough

[snowfan]

Blocking never develops in time and we torch.

IAD: 10"

BWI: 8"

DCA: 4"

Damn....so this year will rival 09-10.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Blocking never develops in time and we torch.

IAD: 10"

BWI: 8"

DCA: 4"

 

We haven't seen a winter block in years, no reason to believe it happens this year either.

[EastCoast NPZ]

After this 5-month (and counting) long summer, I won't even care when it is 40F and raining this winter.  At least it won't be hot.

[mattie g]

We haven't seen a winter block in years, no reason to believe it happens this year either.

I have no doubts about two things this winter:

1) Your area will do far better than those of us to the east in nearly every potential snowy scenario

2) You'll still find plenty to complain about

Keep doing your thing!

[HighStakes]

After this 5-month (and counting) long summer, I won't even care when it is 40F and raining this winter.  At least it won't be hot.

Your consistent approach is unrivaled. 

[Sparky]

Was just having this convo with my husband earlier. I told him it could be a milder winter but with a few bigger snow falls versus nickel and dime events all winter long.

I remember waiting for the big one in 97/98, never happened.  It was plenty stormy though in a mostly wet way.  Lots of beach erosion in O.C. from strong nor'easters in Jan. and Feb.

[Amped]

Above average precip for DJF looks like it's a lock at this point.  However temps are going to be an issue.  There will probably be fewer snow events than the last couple years, if we can get a big when than we'll be above average. However, if it pulls a Valentines day 2007 on us than we're in trouble. Also, December maybe ridiculously warm.

[Bob Chill]

I don't see any reason to be bearish about this winter. Certainly not at this point. The important long wave features won't show their hand for months.

If we're going to knock down climo+ 3 years in a row, our chances this year are as good or better than we can hope for. The odds of climo+ during ninos are certainly higher statistically than the hands we were dealt the last 2 years. We just pulled out back to back flukes.

Winwxluvr says "gimme precip first" all the time. Odds favor 12+ during djf. Rain is coming just like every winter. But imo we should all be hedging optimistic. At least slightly anyways.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I've basically tossed December and expect a backloaded winter. None of the viable Niño/+QBO analogs point to much of anything until January/February. It's actually a very strong signal in the data.