Fozz Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Getting the rug pulled from under multiple times in a row is probably far more infuriating than anything else. I'm definitely not proud of some of the posts I made in late Jan/early Feb when much of the forum was in meltdown mode. I was better behaved in 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 I had 7.0" through mid-Feb last year. It was a pretty cruddy year that turned around with a good finish. In contrast, I had 4 total "events" in '11-12 that totaled 3.1". 6 years of good measurements at my house: 69.0" 12.5" 3.1" 12.5" 48.3" 22.7" Love that variance. I had a 5" season followed by an 82" season in 2008-10.. Since then I measured 8" (4"in Oct.) and 53" in different years. If you love snow, and you live in the Mid-Atlantic, you really have to have patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 I had a 5" season followed by an 82" season in 2008-10.. Since then I measured 8" (4"in Oct.) and 53" in different years. If you love snow, and you live in the Mid-Atlantic, you really have to have patience....and a really big imagination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Getting the rug pulled from under multiple times in a row is probably far more infuriating than anything else. I'm definitely not proud of some of the posts I made in late Jan/early Feb when much of the forum was in meltdown mode. I was better behaved in 2011-12.IMHO, there's not a d@mn thing wrong with complaining about lack of snow in this forum. God knows the sane people who will never join here won't listen to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Still no sign of the vortex of death in the GOA. [knocks on wood] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 I make no apologies for my meltdowns last winter . The meltdowns were properly calibrated. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 I had 7.25" as of February 15, with a lot of Ts and a decent number of slop-to-rain events leading up to it. It was pretty miserable. I didn't jackpot by any stretch after that, as I only ended up with 24" total for the season, while places 10-15 miles away had upwards of 30". No huge complaints, though. The cold stretch starting when that front blasted through in mid-February was impressive, but I don't particularly enjoy late-season cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Description of Euro seasonal out today thx to CoastalWx http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/?p=3676763 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Apparently good news for us. Unless one of Coastal or ORH comes out and addresses what these seasonal looks means for our area, then I don't take anything from the discussion in the New England thread. Their winter climo is just so different than ours and doesn't rely on the perfect alignment of Jupiter, Saturn, and Scarlett Johansson's azz to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Which was 4-5" more than Caribou, where annual avg snowfall is about 7X that for BWI. I think there's a better chance of Octobomb 2.0 than another BWI>CAR winter. Edit: CAR had 70.3" that winter, 3rd lowest in 75 years of record. Their 1981-2010 avg is 111.8", so only about 6X BWI's 18.8" for the same period. Below are BWI's top 5 snowiest and CAR's bottom 5. BWI 1...77.1"......2009-10 2...62.6"......1995-96 3...58.2"......2002-03 4...51.9"......1963-64 5...46.9"......1960-61 and 1966-67 CAR 1...59.6"......1943-44 2...68.5"......1961-62 3...70.3"......2009-10 4...71.2"......1947-48 5...72.6"......1950-51 Since 1961-62, only in 2009-10 and 1979-80 (74.2") did CAR have less snow than BWI's mark for 2009-10. Someone's feelings got hurt by mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Someone's feelings got hurt by mitch. actually, I was surprised how screwed they got in 09/10, but you had to go pretty far north into NE before the screw pierced the colon wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 actually, I was surprised how screwed they got in 09/10, but you had to go pretty far north into NE before the screw pierced the colon wall It was all relative, of course. That -NAO was a killer for them, but it brought us tHa bOmBz. I just don't see the need for someone to start pointing out how awesome their winters are and how sucky BWI's are just because one anomalous winter was being discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 It was all relative, of course. That -NAO was a killer for them, but it brought us tHa bOmBz. I just don't see the need for someone to start pointing out how awesome their winters are and how sucky BWI's are just because one anomalous winter was being discussed. well, the only difference between those in NE and us are they have a hard time forgetting about their one "bad" winter and we have a hard time forgetting about our strings of bad winters I'd kill to get Worcester's snows around here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 lol- that was an awful lot of effort to prove a point that doesn't need proving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 lol- that was an awful lot of effort to prove a point that doesn't need proving. Bingo. I really don't understand the reason for the post, other than to use Mid-Atlantic winters as salve on an ass that got chapped that one year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 well, the only difference between those in NE and us are they have a hard time forgetting about their one "bad" winter and we have a hard time forgetting about our strings of bad winters I'd kill to get Worcester's snows around here though Pretty much everyone on here would! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Kinda weird leading into this winter. Really not much to discuss outside of enso region config until we move through Nov. We know exactly what needs to happen in the npac to not royally screw us (even if we do get -ao/nao at times). But we can't speculate much irt which way things go until Dec. Not mad at the recent euro sips showing lowest height anoms south of the aleutians. That's for sure. Whether it's right or not...heh...don't ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Kinda weird leading into this winter. Really not much to discuss outside of enso region config until we move through Nov. We know exactly what needs to happen in the npac to not royally screw us (even if we do get -ao/nao at times). But we can't speculate much irt which way things go until Dec. Not mad at the recent euro sips showing lowest height anoms south of the aleutians. That's for sure. Whether it's right or not...heh...don't ask me. That and the recent NASA GEOS-5 height anomalies in the North Atlantic that was being talked about in the New England winter thread. Beastly looking late-season(?) -NAO. It's all in good fun, of course. Really the only thing to discuss re: ENSO now is where temp anomalies will end up highest, and exactly how high they'll be. Plenty of time to watch the players line up later in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 That and the recent NASA GEOS-5 height anomalies in the North Atlantic that was being talked about in the New England winter thread. Beastly looking late-season(?) -NAO. It's all in good fun, of course. Really the only thing to discuss re: ENSO now is where temp anomalies will end up highest, and exactly how high they'll be. Plenty of time to watch the players line up later in the fall. I think the consistency of the Euro seasonal looking similar for the past few months is encouraging...at least until next month's forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 well, the only difference between those in NE and us are they have a hard time forgetting about their one "bad" winter and we have a hard time forgetting about our strings of bad winters I'd kill to get Worcester's snows around here though They've had an incredible run in the past 20 years, and especially since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I think the consistency of the Euro seasonal looking similar for the past few months is encouraging...at least until next month's forecast! It's going to crush our hopes and dreams at some point...as sure as the sun rises in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 It's going to crush our hopes and dreams at some point...as sure as the sun rises in the east. Speaking of...autumnal equinox in two weeks. (itshappening.gif) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Why was 91-92 such a lousy winter? East based El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Why was 91-92 such a lousy winter? East based El Nino? Pinatubo erupted in June of 91 and effected weather patterns around the globe. The winter also featured a very positive ao state. A combination of typical and atypical factors ending up delivering a pretty crappy winter for snow lovers in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Pinatubo erupted in June of 91 and effected weather patterns around the globe. The winter also featured a very positive ao state. A combination of typical and atypical factors ending up delivering a pretty crappy winter for snow lovers in the east. HM has mentioned the lack of stratospheric ozone due to CFC usage in the 60s-80s time frame and how that had contributed to rather persistent +AO states in winter during the late 80s and 90s. Am I correct in his summation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 HM has mentioned the lack of stratospheric ozone due to CFC usage in the 60s-80s time frame and how that had contributed to rather persistent +AO states in winter during the late 80s and 90s. Am I correct in his summation? I remember hearing stuff like that in the past but have no opinion/knowledge on the subject. There was definitely a long term cycle of some sort at work during that period though. Just like the cycle during the 00-10 time frame. Blocking came easy an often with the majority of winters during that period but I'm not sure anyone can pin down exactly why it happened. Some good theories out there though. Or it's just weather doing its thing. The DJFM AO index averaged +.541 from 89-99 and -.346 from 00-10, Since 10 it's averaged +.206. There are long term cycles with the oscillation and you can pick them out pretty easily for the last 60+ years. But the hows and whys are over my head. I've been leaning towards being in a longer term + cycle now given the behavior since our massive blocking winters ended. Doesn't mean you can't still have a negative winter in the mix of course. This year has everyone wondering which way the shoe drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I remember hearing stuff like that in the past but have no opinion/knowledge on the subject. There was definitely a long term cycle of some sort at work during that period though. Just like the cycle during the 00-10 time frame. Blocking came easy an often with the majority of winters during that period but I'm not sure anyone can pin down exactly why it happened. Some good theories out there though. Or it's just weather doing its thing. The DJFM AO index averaged +.541 from 89-99 and -.346 from 00-10, Since 10 it's averaged +.206. There are long term cycles with the oscillation and you can pick them out pretty easily for the last 60+ years. But the hows and whys are over my head. I've been leaning towards being in a longer term + cycle now given the behavior since our massive blocking winters ended. Doesn't mean you can't still have a negative winter in the mix of course. This year has everyone wondering which way the shoe drops. The last two winters have proven, IMO, that the notion that you have to get a -AO and/or a -NAO to have a good winter is just not valid. It may help, but you don't have to have it. I'm not saying that you are saying that, but the AO/NAO get talked about around here probably more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 The last two winters have proven, IMO, that the notion that you have to get a -AO and/or a -NAO to have a good winter is just not valid. It may help, but you don't have to have it. I'm not saying that you are saying that, but the AO/NAO get talked about around here probably more than anything else. It's quite valid over time though. Unusual years are just part of the game but they are most certainly underdog victories. If we're not going to get blocking then something else must overwhelm in very anomalous fashion (-epo obviously the last 2 years). Nino's in particular really need help with blocking in our region and even then it's far from a guaranty. Our worst recent nino's other than the 97-98 beast (91-92, 72-73, 94-95) featured +AO's basically door to door. Other "so-so" nino winters like 04-05, 06-07 etc) had the only meaningful snowfalls during the periods of blocking in otherwise hostile states during the balance. All the good Nino's had anomalous blocking during the majority of winter months. I get what you're saying though. It definitely "can" snow good here when the raw #s would point the other way. Luck plays a role for sure but that can be said in all instances. From a statistical perspective, far more of our decent snowstorms/winters occur with a favorable -ao and/or nao. Wes' scatter plot diagram of 4"+ snows shows it very clearly that far more of our snowstorms occur with blocking than without. Defying statistics 2 years in a row won't change my thinking in any way other than it's sure feels good to have a horseshoe tossed our way once in a while. I'm fairly confident in making the statement that a raging +AO this year will end up with very crappy totals. Maybe not in your yard though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 It's quite valid over time though. Unusual years are just part of the game but they are most certainly underdog victories. If we're not going to get blocking then something else must overwhelm in very anomalous fashion (-epo obviously the last 2 years). Nino's in particular really need help with blocking in our region and even then it's far from a guaranty. Our worst recent nino's other than the 97-98 beast (91-92, 72-73, 94-95) featured +AO's basically door to door. Other "so-so" nino winters like 04-05, 06-07 etc) had the only meaningful snowfalls during the periods of blocking in otherwise hostile states during the balance. All the good Nino's had anomalous blocking during the majority of winter months. I get what you're saying though. It definitely "can" snow good here when the raw #s would point the other way. Luck plays a role for sure but that can be said in all instances. From a statistical perspective, far more of our decent snowstorms/winters occur with a favorable -ao and/or nao. Wes' scatter plot diagram of 4"+ snows shows it very clearly that far more of our snowstorms occur with blocking than without. Defying statistics 2 years in a row won't change my thinking in any way other than it's sure feels good to have a horseshoe tossed our way once in a while. I'm fairly confident in making the statement that a raging +AO this year will end up with very crappy totals. Maybe not in your yard though. I know the graph you are talking about. There could be other factors at play there, however. What is the ratio of number of days of _AO/-NAO to days of +AO/+NAO? It could be there were more opportunities for those snowfalls simply because there were more times they were negative than positive. There could be a lot of things that we don't fully understand at this point. Our reliable data set still can't be that big. Once we go back in time more than 50-75 years, I would think we would be playing with sketchy stats. We thought we had a pretty reliable way to predict the AO (SAI)...........until last year. I'm all for trying to predict weather, but Mother Nature is a beast. We really will just have to wait and see. What's the board saying? We just can't know yet? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 It's quite valid over time though. Unusual years are just part of the game but they are most certainly underdog victories. If we're not going to get blocking then something else must overwhelm in very anomalous fashion (-epo obviously the last 2 years). Nino's in particular really need help with blocking in our region and even then it's far from a guaranty. Our worst recent nino's other than the 97-98 beast (91-92, 72-73, 94-95) featured +AO's basically door to door. Other "so-so" nino winters like 04-05, 06-07 etc) had the only meaningful snowfalls during the periods of blocking in otherwise hostile states during the balance. All the good Nino's had anomalous blocking during the majority of winter months. I get what you're saying though. It definitely "can" snow good here when the raw #s would point the other way. Luck plays a role for sure but that can be said in all instances. From a statistical perspective, far more of our decent snowstorms/winters occur with a favorable -ao and/or nao. Wes' scatter plot diagram of 4"+ snows shows it very clearly that far more of our snowstorms occur with blocking than without. Defying statistics 2 years in a row won't change my thinking in any way other than it's sure feels good to have a horseshoe tossed our way once in a while. I'm fairly confident in making the statement that a raging +AO this year will end up with very crappy totals. Maybe not in your yard though. And that's another point...........location matters a ton. You guys down near sea level are always on thin ice.....no pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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